2007 Predictions Revisited

World Series, scmorld schmeries.

What we all really care about is: Who won the YFSF 2007 Staff Predictions?

Let’s find out!

A point system seems to be the fairest way of determining who was most accurate in the totality of the predictions. I (cribbing from a friend of mine who devised a similar system when he and I bet a dinner on it last year — and then promptly lost the sheets containing our predictions) came up with this:

  • 5 points for each team’s correctly predicted finish.
  • 5 points for correctly predicting the wild card (so 10 points total when combined with the correct second-place prediction).
  • 10 points for correctly predicting the division winner (so 15 points total when combined with getting the placement correct).
  • 10 points for correctly predicting order of all teams in a division (on top of points for each team and division winner, so nailing a five-team division would net 45 points. A wild card finisher in that division would make it 50).
  • 15 points for correctly predicting each LCS participant.
  • 20 points for correctly predicting each World Series participant.
  • 50 points for correctly predicting World Series winner.
  • 25 points for correctly predicting Rookie or Manager of the Year.
  • 30 points for correctly predicting Cy Young.
  • 40 points for correctly predicting MVP.
  • 15 points if predicted award winner finished second or third in the relevant voting.

This seems to match the greater number of points with the predictions representing the largest pool of possible teams/candidates, as well as providing bonuses if one managed to correctly predict the finishes of each team in a division (tougher than it seems).

Here’s what we predicted at the beginning of the year, with the points gained in parentheses:

AL EAST
YF (+15) SF (+15) NICK (+5) PAUL (+30) AG (+45)
NYY NYY NYY BOS (+15) BOS (+15)
BOS* BOS* BOS* NYY* (+10) NYY (+5)
TOR (+5) TOR (+5) TOR (+5) TOR (+5) TOR (+5)
BAL (+5) BAL (+5) TB TB BAL (+5)
TB (+5) TB (+5) BAL BAL TB (+5)

 

AL CENTRAL
YF (+10) SF (+45) NICK (+10) PAUL (+25) AG (+25)
DET CLE (+15) MIN CLE (+15) CLE (+15)
MIN DET (+5) CLE DET (+5) MIN*
CLE MIN (+5) DET CHW DET
CHW (+5) CHW (+5) CHW (+5) MIN CHW (+5)
KC (+5) KC (+5) KC (+5) KC (+5) KC (+5)

 

AL WEST
YF (+15) SF (+15) NICK (+15) PAUL (+15) AG (+20)
LAA (+15) LAA (+15) LAA (+15) LAA (+15) LAA (+15)
OAK OAK OAK OAK OAK
TEX TEX TEX TEX SEA
SEA SEA SEA SEA TEX (+5)

 

NL EAST
YF (+0) SF (+0) NICK (+25) PAUL (+15) AG (+25)
NYM NYM PHI (+15) PHI (+15) PHI (+15)
ATL* ATL NYM* (+5) ATL NYM* (+5)
PHI FLA ATL (+5) NYM ATL (+5)
FLA PHI FLA FLA FLA
WAS WAS WAS WAS WAS

 

NL CENTRAL
YF (+10) SF (+10) NICK (+15) PAUL (+20) AG (+5)
STL STL MIL MIL MIL
HOU CHC STL CHC* STL
CHC HOU CHC STL (+5) CIN
MIL MIL HOU (+5) HOU (+5) CHC
CIN (+5) CIN (+5) CIN (+5) CIN (+5) HOU
PIT (+5) PIT (+5) PIT (+5) PIT (+5) PIT (+5)

 

NL WEST
YF (+5) SF (+25) NICK (+5) PAUL (+5) AG (+0)
LAD ARI (+15) SD LAD LAD
SD LAD LAD ARI SD
ARI SD (+5) ARI SD (+5) ARI
COL COL COL SF SF
SF (+5) SF (+5) SF (+5) COL COL

So much for our acumen when it comes to the National League. Correctly predicting the NL Central would have meant huge points for anyone who could do it. Sadly, none of us even got the top twp finishers right. At this point, it’s AG in the lead with 120, followed by yours truly and SF (110 each), Nick (80) and YF (55).

ALCS
YF (+15) SF (+50) NICK (+15) PAUL (+35) AG (+15)
NYY
over
BOS (+15)
BOS (+35)
over
CLE (+15)
NYY
over
BOS (+15)
BOS (+35)
over
NYY
CLE (+15)
over
LAA

 

NLCS
YF (+0) SF (+0) NICK (+0) PAUL (+0) AG (+0)
ATL
over
LAD
LAD
over
NYM
MIL
over
PHI
LAD
over
PHI
LAD
over
MIL

 

WS Champion
YF SF NICK PAUL (+50) AG
NYY LAD NYY BOS CLE

SF was the only one to correctly predict a Boston-Cleveland ALCS — and a Boston win, to boot. So he gets the 15 points for each team, plus the 20 points for correctly predicting the Sox as a World Series participant. We all tanked the National League — somehow, none of us thought the Rockies and Diamondbacks would be playing for the NL championship. It seems so obvious now! AG gave up his lead to slide to third place: Me (195), SF (160), AG (135), Nick (95), YF (70). The race is still wide open.

Hotly Debated Yet Ultimately Meaningless Individual Honors

AL MVP
YF: Vladimir Guerrero, LAA (+15)
SF: Grady Sizemore, CLE
Nick: Grady Sizemore, CLE
Paul: David Ortiz, BOS
AG: Joe Mauer, MIN
AL CY
YF: Johan Santana, MIN
SF: PavJohan Santana, MIN
Nick: Daisuke Matsuzaka, BOS
Paul: Daisuke Matsuzaka, BOS
AG: C. C. Sabathia, CLE (+30)
AL ROY
YF: Daisuke Matsuzaka, BOS
SF: Daisuke Matsuzaka, BOS
Nick: Daisuke Matsuzaka, BOS
Paul: Daisuke Matsuzaka, BOS
AG: Alex Gordon, KC
AL MOY
YF: Joe Torre, NYY (+15)
SF: Eric Wedge, CLE (+25)
Nick: Joe Torre, NYY (+15)
Paul: Eric Wedge, CLE (+25)
AG: Eric Wedge, CLE (+25)
NL MVP
YF: Albert Pujols, STL
SF: Albert Pujols, STL
Nick: Ryan Howard, PHI
Paul: Albert Pujols, STL
AG: Ryan Howard, PHI
NL CY
YF: Roy Oswalt, HOU
SF: Roy Oswalt, HOU
Nick: Jake Peavy, SD (+30)
Paul: Jake Peavy, SD (+30)
AG: Roy Oswalt, HOU
NL ROY
YF: Kevin Kouzmanoff, SD
SF: Chris Young, ARI
Nick: Chris Young, ARI
Paul: Troy Tulowitzky, COL (+15)
AG: Chris Young, ARI
NL MOY
YF: Lou Piniella, CHC
SF: Bob Melvin, ARI (+25)
Nick: Ned Yost, MIL
Paul: Ned Yost, MIL
AG: Ned Yost, MIL

So there you have it. We all did a pretty good job guessing the AL Manager of the Year, and less so picking the National League awards. Final standings:

  1. Paul — 265 points
  2. SF — 210 points
  3. AG — 190 points
  4. Nick — 140 points
  5. YF — 100 points

So there we have it. Correctly predicting the Red Sox to win the whole enchilada pretty well put me over the top, while SF held on to second place thanks to his prescient ALCS prediction.

I think what this all tells us is two things: Sox fans are smarter (like we didn’t already know that), and we should stay away from the National League.

6 comments… add one

  • I blame Dice-K

    Nick-YF November 26, 2007, 11:26 am
  • Next year I’m taking home the crown!

    John - YF November 26, 2007, 11:31 am
  • How did I not pick the Sox…
    I am not sure I like the fifteen points for getting a top three post-season award finisher. The return for picking the winner is only +10 over picking a third place finisher. Doesn’t seem fair to those of us that picked Bob Melvin and Eric Wedge…
    ;-)

    SF November 26, 2007, 12:17 pm
  • Found a line for a Boston Trifecta. http://www.wagerweb.com/sports-betting/sporting-events-news.html Very cool . I think Red Sox win again with Mike and Curt back, The Celtics are for real and of course The New England Patriots already clinched a playoff birth with The Bills loss. Looking good being a Boston Fan. Sorry Yanks.

    richard November 26, 2007, 12:33 pm
  • I blame the NL West. Lousy, no-good division.

    attackgerbil November 26, 2007, 4:52 pm
  • How come we didn’t get this accounting last year, when my pics were so good!
    Alas…..was just one of those years, I guess.

    YF November 26, 2007, 5:16 pm

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