A Contest

With whom, for how long, and for how much will Mark Teixeira sign his next contract? 

Club and player options should be included, so we're asking for an all-in number.

First prize wins a YFSF mug.

I will start the guessing after the jump.

Using Alex Rodriguez' deal structure and the Yankees' willingness to give out ten-year deals (Jeter, A-Rod) and the Sox' non-history of such a commitment (Manny for 8 is as long is gets, see how that one ended?), I come up with the following:

Yankees.  Ten years.  $202M. 

That's my all-in guess. 

Some other prognostications, not necessary for this contest: opt-out clause after year 4, so after CC decides.  Years 9 and 10 at club's option.  Salary peaks in year 5, then diminishes towards year 10.

For the record, I detest making predictions like this since I am almost never right and it bruises my ego.  But this one seems like it could be fun.  Have at it!

46 comments… add one

  • Angels: 8 years – $187 million.

    Dave SF December 16, 2008, 1:23 pm
  • Red Sox: 9 years, $198 million
    Ninth year is club option, no opt out.

    Paul SF December 16, 2008, 1:30 pm
  • Orioles – 8 years- $200 mil

    Sam-YF December 16, 2008, 1:33 pm
  • Nationals – 10 years 257 million

    dw (sf) December 16, 2008, 1:48 pm
  • I am going to approach this Price is Right style..
    I will take the Red Sox and $1.
    Seriously, I will go Red Sox, $200 mill.

    John - YF December 16, 2008, 1:55 pm
  • Red Sox; 8 years @ $200mm + 2 club option @ 25 each.

    nate December 16, 2008, 2:12 pm
  • Red Sox: 8 years, 190 million.

    Atheose December 16, 2008, 2:13 pm
  • Angels: 8 Years, $180 Mil.

    walein December 16, 2008, 2:33 pm
  • Sam took my bid. So I will go Orioles, 8 years, $195 million with $750000 per MVP award.

    AndrewYF December 16, 2008, 2:34 pm
  • Red Sox 10 years at 240m

    Lar December 16, 2008, 2:45 pm
  • Sorry, my guess is 8 years, 200 I left off the years.

    John - YF December 16, 2008, 3:03 pm
  • Yanks, 10 years 300m

    the mayor December 16, 2008, 3:51 pm
  • Red Sox.
    8 years @ 185MM plus one team option which makes him the highest paid player by one dollar for that year.
    Opt out clause for him after four, if he so chooses.
    I don’t think CC gets one, and he doesn’t.

    Brad December 16, 2008, 3:56 pm
  • Angels. 8 years, 200 million. Plus a vesting year option, also at $25/mil per.
    (I don’t believe this, but all of the Red Sox picks in my real range are covered.)

    Hit Dog December 16, 2008, 4:07 pm
  • Red Sox. 8 years, 185M (8/184 with a 1M signing bonus), plus two club options at 23M/year.

    Micah-SF December 16, 2008, 4:14 pm
  • Yankees. 8 years $170 million. 3rd year is player option.

    Nick-YF December 16, 2008, 4:29 pm
  • So an opt-out after two years, Nick?

    Paul SF December 16, 2008, 5:10 pm
  • meant 4th year. opt out after 3.

    Nick-YF December 16, 2008, 5:12 pm
  • Wild speculation, but why not
    Washington: 8 years: 195M

    rz-yf December 16, 2008, 5:15 pm
  • 3rd year is player option.
    can he just take that year off if he wants and then play 4-8?

    SF December 16, 2008, 5:17 pm
  • the 3rd year comment was a misthought. I really meant the 4th year and I think it wouldn’t be the worst way for a team to approach this bidding…depending on its future outlook.

    Nick-YF December 16, 2008, 5:22 pm
  • I will say that I find it more likely that Teixeira gets a player option than a club option given the fact that Boras is his agent.

    Nick-YF December 16, 2008, 5:29 pm
  • I thought about this after I posted, as well. If the Sox hold firm on the no opt-out, they’re unlikely to get a club option at the end of the deal.
    So I’ll amend mine to the same AAV but over one fewer year: 8 years, $176 million.

    Paul SF December 16, 2008, 5:36 pm
  • I will say that I find it more likely that Teixeira gets a player option than a club option given the fact that Boras is his agent.
    Perhaps true, Nick. But this is still a negotation and if a team like the Sox won’t go to ten guaranteed years on principle, they may go to ten in this fashion. But you are correct in principle, I think.

    SF December 16, 2008, 5:40 pm
  • Dang it. All the picks are covered that I would want on the Bingo Board. I dw’s pick best but I think it’s on the rich side.

    attackgerbil December 16, 2008, 7:14 pm
  • oop.. just saw rz was on the nats as well, coming in lower. Anyway, I’ll still leave my cap tossed into that ring.

    attackgerbil December 16, 2008, 7:15 pm
  • Orioles 9 yrs $192M opt out after 4yrs

    fiskfan75 December 16, 2008, 7:53 pm
  • my guess, screw the numbers:
    yankees: less than arod, more than jeter and cc, for 10 years, with some combo of options…player options in early years with club options in later years…if i’m not specific enough to qualify for the mug, oh well, i’ll use the one my daughter gave me for fathers day…

    dc December 16, 2008, 8:11 pm
  • Yankees; 23 years, 506 million.

    Dirty Water December 16, 2008, 9:12 pm
  • DW:
    Is there an opt-out?

    SF December 16, 2008, 9:46 pm
  • Hanging Sox, 8 years, $187. Holla.

    birdmanofvt December 16, 2008, 10:07 pm
  • I’ll assume that’s $187M, not $187 bucks, birdman!

    SF December 16, 2008, 10:20 pm
  • Red Sox, eight years, $194M, no opt-out, no no-trade, no team options.

    I'mBillMcNeal December 17, 2008, 12:56 am
  • bill, this is boras we’re talking about…the player opt out is his new favorite toy…no way he doesn’t try to squeeze that in somehow…

    dc December 17, 2008, 8:29 am
  • Yo care correct, dc, and I considered that. But my hunch is that Boras prefers the Red Sox for Big Tex, and although he’ll try, he’ll cave on that at the Red Sox insistence.
    And for the record, I’m gonna predict that these opt-out clauses will be a short-lived fad. Those things are bad for baseball. (But then again, so are these exorbitant contracts. And that hasn’t changed.

    I'm Bill McNeal December 17, 2008, 11:53 am
  • can I amend mine to say 10 years, 257, with an opt-out after 3 seasons?

    dw (sf) December 17, 2008, 3:03 pm
  • I didn’t turn on the italics either!

    dw (sf) December 17, 2008, 3:03 pm
  • I think I turned them on and don’t know how to turn them off.
    Anyone have a Smith-Corona?

    I'mBillMcNeal December 17, 2008, 9:49 pm
  • let me try to turn them off did that work?

    Sam-YF December 17, 2008, 10:24 pm
  • Fixed.

    Paul SF December 18, 2008, 1:49 am
  • But then again, so are these exorbitant contracts
    Are they bad for baseball? How can you prove this?
    Or are they bad for the baseball fan?

    SF December 18, 2008, 6:11 am
  • I don’t want to get into it too much, SF, because I don’t have the time and I’m at work.
    But I would argue that these contracts are bad for baseball because not every team has the resources to makes these types of deals. (However, I’m sure that there are teams that DO have the resources but pretend not to.)
    On a Big Tex note, Dale Arnold made the argument today on WEEI, and it makes sense to me, that Boras is shopping his two big-ticket clients, Teixeira and Manny, to the two big-spending teams, Boston and NYY, to try to get the most money possible. That is why Tex will end up in Boston, he argues. Because if he allowed Tex to go to NYY, he’s killed the market for Manny.
    It makes sense, and it’s also why, if I’m Cashman, I make a BIG push to get Tex. (And that’s pretty much Ken Rosenthal’s argument from his Tuesday night submission.)

    I'm Bill McNeal December 18, 2008, 3:12 pm
  • > bad for baseball
    Every team spends equal money on journeyman contracts that on an annual basis exceed the gross earning power of a typical households’ draw over seven years. It’s lucrative for everyone, including the “disenfranchised” franchises. People will pay the gate, especially in a time of “crisis”.

    attackgerbil December 18, 2008, 3:35 pm
  • Red Sox – 8 years at 192 million = AAV of 24 million

    Rob December 18, 2008, 11:08 pm
  • Rob, late entrants will be at the Mods’ discretion – as the news gets more heated we have to be critical and considerate of late guesses!
    Hope you understand.

    SF December 18, 2008, 11:15 pm
  • SFman, I just want to confirm that you assumed correct, I meant $187M, versus $187 bucks. I regret the error, thanks for noticing the glaring error, and thanks for the consideration. I need that mug. Regardless, Feliz Navidad. Bring back D Lowe!

    birdmanofvt December 18, 2008, 11:29 pm

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