ARod: Don’t Make Him Angry

Perhaps it is not worthy of a bloody sock story, but it was certainly a bloody brilliant story.  Alex hit two home runs in the seventh inning on a gimpy leg, the first multi-homer inning for a Bomber since Cliff Johnson in 1977.  He tied Mel Ott with his first dinger, and tied Ernie Banks and Eddie Mathews on his second home run for those keeping track on the career list.  Alex is 33 32 years old.  He got sent for an MRI as he was limping into pre-game warmups after being fallen upon by Beltre last night.  According to Brian Cashman, Dr. Rodriguez related through the GM regarding his pre-game scope, "I think he probably thinks it’s a waste of time. He self-diagnosed that he is fine."

There is no doubt he will command a King’s salary, or some may say ransom, next year.  The pressing question is should the Yankees pay the man?  He’s only one of the best, if not best, baseball player of his generation, but he will cost.  Did I mention he is 33 32 years old and is (currently) keeping company with Ott, Banks, and Mathews?

Oh, Phil Franchise had a solid, quality start, Joba hasn’t allowed a run in 12.1 since joining the staff and recorded his first win while working a perfect inning; Ramirez and Mo were was perfection as well in facing three batters each.  Interesting times.

Sorry for the errors..thanks for the corrections all

Ichiro got jobbed by the umps, who were thoroughly unimpressive all the way around.

62 comments… add one
  • Gerb, A-Rod turned 32 on July 27th. He will hit many more bombs before turning 33!
    In answer to your question, I think after this year, where he’s demonstrated he can handle the NY media and scrutiny, and still put up A-Rod-type numbers, the answer is yes, pay the market rate and extend the guy’s contract.
    They need to extend the existing contract in order to still get the supplement from Tom Hicks. If A-Rod actually opts out, rather than signing an extension, I think Cash is right, he won’t be wearing Pinstripes next season. Otherwise, I’d extend him, though. He’s *arrived* in NY and is about to win his third MVP, his second as a Yankee.

    yankees76 September 6, 2007, 1:20 am
  • Sorry to correct you, but Mo was not perfect, Betemit made an error in the 9th.

    Marc September 6, 2007, 8:42 am
  • Tough crowd. See! Yankee fans are never happy!

    Paul SF September 6, 2007, 9:48 am
  • pay him.
    extension, completely new contract without hicks’ cash, i don’t care.
    hell, auctioning off the old stadium piece by piece would easily cover his contract, the luxury tax, and more for a couple of years.
    they should find a way to pay him the going rate, lock him in, and let us sit back and watch him rack up the numbers and awards. (hopefully that will include a few championship rings.)
    he deserves the cash. he’s proven himself.

    Yankee Fan In Boston September 6, 2007, 9:48 am
  • YFIB – I agree one thousand percent, and stating that, I’m really hoping that they do not. I’m hoping that they sleep on him thinking that the whole “NY” thing brings him back, which to me is insane.
    He’s so red-hot this year it’s insane.
    I’m rooting hard for you know what…
    Imagine David Ortiz were in front of him. Or Vlad, or any other hitter that offers more power than his current tandem.

    Brad September 6, 2007, 10:04 am
  • The Yanks have a lot of money. They’ll offer him a lot. It’s up to A-Rod to decide whether he wants to play on the Yanks or not. But the Yanks understand his value and are willing to extend him.

    Nick-YF September 6, 2007, 10:21 am
  • *07-10:$27M/year
    *Rodriguez may void after 2007 season (10-day window after World Series)
    *2008-2010 financial obligations (eliminated if Rodriguez voids):
    -NY: $50,695,500 (08:$15.884M,09:$16.8985M, 10:$17.913M)
    -Texas: $21,304,500
    (08:$8.116M, 09:$7.1015M, 10:$6.087M)
    *Rodriguez may void after 2008 or 2009 unless club increases 2009-10 salary by $5M/year or $1M more than highest-paid MLB position player
    *club may offer salary arbitration if Rodriguez voids contract 2007-09, but club may not offer salary arbitration after 2010
    *$0.5M for MVP ($1M for second MVP, $1.5M for subsequent MVPs) (received $0.5M for 2003 AL MVP, $1M for 2005 AL MVP)
    If there is an extension, is this old contract null and void? Are there changes made at the least? I would hate to have to go through this again in ’08.

    John - YF (Trisk) September 6, 2007, 10:26 am
  • It only is null and void if he opts out and then the Yanks renegotiate a contract with. That’s why Cashman is taking a hardline on A-Rod not opting out. You would assume he wouldn’t opt out in 2008 because Boras would have negotiated a contract to his liking. But I don’t know.

    Nick-YF September 6, 2007, 10:30 am
  • Arod’s getting his extension from the yankees. I honestly think its crazy to think otherwise. Boras will hold the opt out as his leverage but its in everyones interest by a whole lot to keep him in pinstripes.

    Sam-YF September 6, 2007, 10:30 am
  • I don’t think A-Rod gets an extension, per se, with the Yankees. An extension would mean he doesn’t opt out.
    I think he opts out, and the most realistic scenario is re-signing with the Yankees, no matter what Cashman has said.

    Paul SF September 6, 2007, 10:38 am
  • But Paul, the Yankees can pay him more if he doesn’t opt out, because they will still be getting the Rangers’ supplement for the next three years. It’s $27 million ($9 million per). Boras knows this. It makes more sense to force the Yankees to extend the existing contract than to negotiate a new one. If you negotiate a new one, sure you can bring the Angels and the Red Sox into the negotiations and perhaps drive up the price, but I think the Yankees will be willing to pay $27 million per, and I just don’t see any other team paying that, so there’s no point in opting out.
    I can’t see the Red Sox or the Angels giving A-Rod a 7/8-year contract at $27 million/per.

    yankees76 September 6, 2007, 10:56 am
  • Just from the business side, isn’t it in his best interest to opt out? He’s “only” going to make 27 million? I don’t see how the Yankees could work this out under the current contract, A-Rod is not going to turn down a new contract because of his Yankee loyalty. I just get bad vibes, I don’t see this ending well. For now let’s enjoy this unreal season he is having.

    John - YF (Trisk) September 6, 2007, 10:57 am
  • Look at the details of his current contract Y76, he is due to make 32 million after 2008 anyway, why would he sign a deal at his current rate? This IS Scott Boras we are talking about…

    John - YF (Trisk) September 6, 2007, 10:59 am
  • sure you can bring the Angels and the Red Sox into the negotiations and perhaps drive up the price,
    Which is exactly why Boras wil tell A-Rod to opt out. Even if the Angels and Sox both say they won’t touch a contract with salaries that high, what’s to stop Boras from telling the Yankees otherwise? He did it to Boston in the Damon negotiations.
    Boras and A-Rod, rightly, are not looking out for the Yankees’ best interests. The Yankees will pay A-Rod more, regardless of the Texas subsidy, if they want to avoid taking a significant step back for 2008 and possibly beyond.
    Hopefully they won’t.

    Paul SF September 6, 2007, 11:01 am
  • Hopefully they won’t sign A-Rod, I mean.

    Paul SF September 6, 2007, 11:02 am
  • This was going to be a big contract, even if A-Rod only put up the same numbers he put up last year. Now, it’s going to be a REALLY BIG contract.
    It’s a good thing the Yankees have found some cheap, home-grown talent. If they had to pay five SPs market rate for a veteran, their payroll would be silly(ier).

    yankees76 September 6, 2007, 11:04 am
  • Paul AMEN! This Scott Boras, why would he care where the $$ comes from as long as it comes! Alex was tormented for how many seasons prior to this year and for some reason people think he is going to reward this town by extending a contract that isn’t going rate. Not gonna happen.

    John - YF (Trisk) September 6, 2007, 11:05 am
  • I don’t see A-Rod opting out, cause who’s going to give him another 200 million contract (7 years at 30 million)? I don’t think the Sox can afford that. And the Angels have their own decision about re-signing Vlad next year.
    Nah, Cashman is playing this smart. If A-Rod opts out (and they lose the Texas money), he’ll offer arbitration and get two draft picks.
    Otherwise, they re-sign A-Rod for five years and 160 million – and everyone will be happy. Boras has a new yearly standard. Alex has more buckets of dough. And the Yankees will have him through the end of his career (in accepting an extension, A-Rod will have to void his other opt outs).
    But, ultimately, the decision will solely be on A-Rod. Does he want to stay? Who knows…

    Pete SF September 6, 2007, 11:09 am
  • Nah, Cashman is playing this smart. If A-Rod opts out (and they lose the Texas money), he’ll offer arbitration and get two draft picks.
    If all Cashman gets for A-Rod is two draft picks and increased budget flexibility, it will go down as one of the blunders of the decade for the New York Yankees.
    So naturally, I’m hoping that’s exactly what happens.

    Paul SF September 6, 2007, 11:12 am
  • “And the Angels have their own decision about re-signing Vlad next year.”
    Vlad is signed through ’08 with an option for ’09. The option is only $15 million, so I would imagine it’s an easy decision to make even at Vlad’s age (in ’09).

    John - YF (Trisk) September 6, 2007, 11:13 am
  • PAY THE MAN PAY THE MAN PAY THE MAN PAY THE MAN~
    You’ve got to be batshit insane if you don’t. A-Rod is one of the only reasons the Yankees stayed afloat in April/May. They wouldn’t have the wild card without him.
    This is the Yankees we’re talking about. There is a good chance A-Rod will opt out, but what’s to stop Cashman from just giving him a bigger contract.
    Also, lol @ “RSN” drooling all over themselves thinking they’ve got A-Rod locked up. No love for the career year of Mike Lowell? Manny not good enough for you guys? Who will console the widow Ramirez?

    doug YF September 6, 2007, 11:16 am
  • Do give examples, Doug, of this alleged RSN “drooling.” I’d like to see it.
    Multiple examples, please, since you did say the whole RSN is drooling, and not just one or two people.

    Paul SF September 6, 2007, 11:18 am
  • Sorry, but there’s no reason for Cashman to sign A-Rod after he opts out. He’ll give him a good enough offer in an extension. After that, if A-Rod still opts out, then he wants to leave any ways and the Yankees would be used to drive up his price. Cashman knows this. He may still be involved but only for that reason.
    Luckily the A-Rod drama will be mostly settled by the middle of November. And if he opts out, I’d rather the Sox stay out of that mess. A-Rod may be productive when he’s 38. But he won’t be 30 million productive.

    Pete SF September 6, 2007, 11:30 am
  • I’m still curious why people don’t fact in the NY marketing dollar. I mean, there must be some leverage in that. How much would he give up if he goes to the Angels?
    How much is 600, 700, 755+, etc worth in NY compared to in another city?

    Lar September 6, 2007, 11:31 am
  • “there’s no reason for Cashman to sign A-Rod after he opts out.”
    heh… right.
    for a list of reasons, may i direct your attention here:
    http://www.baseball-reference.com/r/rodrial01.shtml

    Yankee Fan In Boston September 6, 2007, 11:35 am
  • On the “why would he play for *only* 27 million” point:
    Who says the Yankees can’t give him a 20 million signing bonus as a part of his extension? Then they spread that out over the remaining years of his current contract to bring up his current value.
    That 20 million from Texas is nothing to sneeze at. The Yankees will do whatever they can to keep that and A-Rod.

    Pete SF September 6, 2007, 11:38 am
  • do signing bonuses count towards the luxury tax? just curious.

    Yankee Fan In Boston September 6, 2007, 11:40 am
  • Lar, you mean sort of like the LA marketing dollar?
    Doug, huh?
    I’m with a lot of people here, 100% certain Arod will opt out.
    Boras will not allow this open market opportunity to pass by. The Red Sox could have half the roster making league minimum next year, the money would be there. I’m not saying they will do it, but I’m pretty sure they could.

    LocklandSF September 6, 2007, 11:43 am
  • Lar, I think A-Rod transcends the team he plays for at this point. Being in New York for the 500th certainly helped, but going forward, I think he’s a marketing force unto his own. It sure doesn’t seem Bonds has been hurt by hitting 755 in San Francisco, as opposed to LA or NY, does it?

    Paul SF September 6, 2007, 11:44 am
  • Lar, I didn’t realize that’s what you meant by marketing dollar, gotcha.

    LocklandSF September 6, 2007, 11:45 am
  • Also, I think YFs in general underestimate the number of teams that would be willing to pay Arod.

    LocklandSF September 6, 2007, 11:53 am
  • If A-Rod doesn’t sign with the Yanks, I see there being only a few options for him given his obvious desire to play on a winner:
    1. Angels
    2. Dodgers
    3. Red Sox
    4. Mets
    5. Cubs
    That’s a big enough market to drive up his price if we truly believe that the Yanks won’t enter the fray.

    Nick-YF September 6, 2007, 11:59 am
  • I would add the Giants in that mix, in an effort to “clean” the slate. Arod is going to break that record.

    LocklandSF September 6, 2007, 12:01 pm
  • “The Red Sox could have half the roster making league minimum next year, the money would be there.”
    Whaaaaat?
    C – hell no
    1B – yes
    2B – yes
    SS – hell no
    3B – ???
    LF – hell no
    CF – nope
    RF – hell no
    DH – nope
    SP1 – nope
    SP2 – nope
    SP3 – nope
    SP4 – ???
    SP5 – probably
    CL – yes
    By my count, that’s 3 to 5 guys making minimum, and, no, I don’t count other bullpen arms.
    200 million is alot of dough. After what the Sox went through trying to rid themselves of the Manny albatross, I don’t see them in it except to drive up the prices.
    Cubs and Mets have no use for him. Not at 3B , not at SS, not at 1B.
    That leaves the LA teams. Sure they *could* afford him. The question is, for me: Does A-Rod want to leave NY?
    And only he knows the answer.

    Pete SF September 6, 2007, 12:27 pm
  • It was a little exaggeration Pete, but it COULD be Dustin, Youk, Paps, Lester, Clay. That is possible, not 100% likely, but possible, that’s a lot of guys making minimum, then a few in the bullpen too.

    LocklandSF September 6, 2007, 12:34 pm
  • Don’t forget Delcarmen. That’s six of 25, or roughly a quarter of the roster. Plus, yoou’d be subsuming Lowell’s $9m salary into whatever A-Rod gets. Assuming you can then trade Manny, that wipes Manny’s salary — which plus Lowell gets close to what A-Rod would command — and allows Ellsbury to be a seventh league-min player on the roster.
    Financially, the Sox could do it. I’m still not sure they want to. I’m even less sure they ultimately will.

    Paul SF September 6, 2007, 12:45 pm
  • Well, you did say half the roster and even five isn’t close to half.
    I don’t see them going into next season with both Lester and Clay in the rotation, and I say that’s a mistake if they do (one sure, not both with the other insurance for injuries). So then they need to sign a 3/4 and those ain’t cheap.

    Pete SF September 6, 2007, 12:49 pm
  • If Arod leaves, money won’t be the reason. As long as there is breath in Steinbrenner’s body, the Yanks won’t risk losing their best player, possibly to their biggest rival, because of financial reasons.
    From a business standpoint, the yankee FO is fully aware of the correlation between the recent attendance records and Arod’s time in pinstripes…

    Andrews September 6, 2007, 12:50 pm
  • If they don’t sign Lowell and I think they should. I’d much rather have Lowell at 3 years and 40 million than A-Rod at 7 years and 200 million.
    If they don’t sign Lowell, then they need a 1B or 3B. The Yankees have been trying for a 1b for years. Those aren’t as plentiful as they used to be.
    And Youk hasn’t be so outstanding to make me think he’s a long term answer. He’s had a good peak season but he’ll be 29 next year. If he stays where he is, that’s fine. But any less and he starts to be a liability, esp if the rest of the offense doesn’t pick it up (Crisp, Drew, Manny, Lugo).
    Carter may be an answer at 1B. But I’m not sure they should rely on him going in. Plus, Carter and Youk – that could be one below average offensive infield with Varitek and Lugo – not one big bat of the bunch. And only Dustin has a clear upside.

    Pete SF September 6, 2007, 1:01 pm
  • I agree with everything you say, Andrew.

    Pete SF September 6, 2007, 1:03 pm
  • I probably should’ve said endorsement dollars, so apologies for confusion.
    My comment probably only applied to the Angels (of the teams that can even consider his paycheck). Outside of us baseball nuts, Vlad isn’t that well-known. ARod, on the other hand..
    Though maybe by now it woulnd’t matter.
    I hadn’t consider the Dodgers all that much, so if he sign with the Dodgers, it’s probably even better for him. And I would think LA puts up with more crap from its stars than NY anyhow.. (oh no, he’s picnicing in the park!)

    Lar September 6, 2007, 1:22 pm
  • Oh, and it’s not like Boras and A-Rod can spin it about money (or fair market value). All Cashman has to say, if anything, is “We wanted Alex here and were prepared to pay accordingly”. I’m willing to bet if Alex opts out, we won’t be hearing about the money (that would come with the reported negotiations elsewhere). Nah, if he opts out he’s learned enough to be honest (NY wasn’t a good fit…had a rough go…etc). Anything else and people will see right through the BS.
    Otherwise, are the Yankees prepared to drop 250 million this off-season on A-Rod, Mariano, and Posada?

    Pete SF September 6, 2007, 1:27 pm
  • “are the Yankees prepared to drop 250 million this off-season on A-Rod, Mariano, and Posada?”
    I think they’ll do whatever it takes to sign all 3

    Andrews September 6, 2007, 1:35 pm
  • How many more years can ARod continue to perform at this level? He’s got over 12 full seasons already. 2 of his last 4 years (counting this one) have been “off” by his standards. Production will start to drop in the next few years, unless he takes the giant head growth formula.

    Tom sf September 6, 2007, 2:09 pm
  • He’s had a good peak season but he’ll be 29 next year.
    Not to threadjack, but that means he presumably has at least three more years before reaching the decline phase of his career. He could conceivably peak at age 31/32, considering his late start.
    Youkilis remains one of the top three to five 1B in the league, even with his recent slump, so I don’t think there’s much worry there.

    Paul SF September 6, 2007, 2:22 pm
  • So, Paul: “give me examples. multiple examples,” huh?
    Hey guy, I’m not going to find quotes for you. You know exactly what I’m talking about. I’ve read Sox fans at this place talking in the future tense about A-Rod playing for Boston – as if he already had one foot out the door in New York. Fantasies about how perfectly A-Rod would fit in the Red Sox batting order (after Big Papi and Manny!) If this isn’t up to your SERIOUS INTERNET BASEBALL DISCUSSION standards, too bad.
    Unless A-Rod wants to be the most hated man in New York, he won’t go to Boston.

    doug YF September 6, 2007, 2:32 pm
  • Every James-type study I’ve seen shows 27 and 28 as typical peak years. Sure that’s averaging across lots of ballplayers, and any individual can be different, but that’s a fact. And peak, as I’ve seen it used, is not usually based on learning but on physical abilities that decline with age. But again, any individual player can be different.
    And as much as I like Youk, he’s not in the top five. At least not yet. He’s got a career 112 OPS+ (120 this year). For a 3B, that’s pretty good. For a 1B, he still needs to improve.
    For instance:
    1B
    1) Pujols
    2) Fielder
    3) Howard
    4) Texiera
    5) Helton
    6) Berkman
    7) Lee
    8) Morneau
    9) Youk
    And that leaves out the one year wonders of Dmitiri Young and Carlos Pena (and yes, I saw you wrote league but saying that of the AL for 1B is a pretty weak standard). Indeed, saying he’s in the bottom half of all 1B’s this year is very accurate.
    But at 3B:
    1) A-Rod
    2) Chipper
    3) Cabrera
    4) Wright
    5) Ramirez
    6) Lowell
    7) Glaus
    At 3B, Youk could be just outside the top 5 of the game with a .850 OPS. His defense seems to be okay there too. The big problem is Youk has to stay right where he’s been this year. Even better if he improves his pop a bit more.

    Pete September 6, 2007, 2:38 pm
  • doug…I think that’s more Sox fans unrealistically fantasizing or just baiting/teasing Yankee fans.
    A-Rod will opt out; A-Rod will go back to the Yankees. That’s my guess.

    Devine September 6, 2007, 2:44 pm
  • “Unless A-Rod wants to be the most hated man in New York,”
    He’s already been that.
    This is going to be about Boras and money and that’s it.
    He will opt out, he will got to the highest bidder. I’m just not certain who that will be.

    LocklandSF September 6, 2007, 2:45 pm
  • I said top five in the league, Pete, not the game. On your list, Youk’s actually No. 2 in the AL. Peak years as a group tend to be from 28 to 31, as I understand them. Youkilis has improved from last year to this one. There’s no reason to think he’s about to enter his decline phase.
    Unless A-Rod wants to be the most hated man in New York, he won’t go to Boston.
    Until this year, A-Rod WAS the most hated man in New York. I doubt seriously that’s at all part of his consideration.
    Also, I have never seen anyone at this site discuss A-Rod in the future tense without tongue firmly in cheek, and certainly not in the same lineup with Manny. A signing of A-Rod would almost surely mean manny would be traded. Sling your barbs elsewhere, Doug, unless you’re ready to truly defend them.

    Paul SF September 6, 2007, 2:45 pm
  • “And that leaves out the one year wonders of Dmitiri Young and Carlos Pena (and yes, I saw you wrote league but saying that of the AL for 1B is a pretty weak standard). Indeed, saying he’s in the bottom half of all 1B’s this year is very accurate.”
    As for improvement, he’s basically traded a few doubles for a few more homers. He needs to do more than that.
    For peak years, this is the best graph I’ve seen to understand with a cursory search:
    http://www.sabernomics.com/sabernomics/index.php/2006/04/peak-age-another-estimate/

    Pete September 6, 2007, 2:54 pm
  • In fact, the only unrealistic arrogance I have seen in the Arod situation has come from Yankee fans assuming that ARod will not opt out and will agree to an extension without testing the open market. Granted, not Yankee fans such as the authors here and most of the regular readers, but elsewhere.

    LocklandSF September 6, 2007, 2:54 pm
  • If it’s about money with A-Rod, he’d get the most with the Yankees and if he doesn’t opt out (because of the TEX money). The Yankees have a 20 million head start.

    Pete September 6, 2007, 2:58 pm
  • “he’d get the most with the Yankees”
    I just don’t think this is 100% true right now. I’m not saying it won’t be true, but I think there are more people out there willing to break the bank than Yankee fans think.
    Pete, who do you root for? I’m confused now.

    Anonymous September 6, 2007, 3:01 pm
  • me

    LocklandSF September 6, 2007, 3:02 pm
  • SF – I’m sick of typing it every time but more sick of spam email.
    A-Rod: Any other team will have to outbid the Yankees by at least 20 million as well an additional three years (the three years in the current contract). Boras knows this.
    That said, if A-Rod is opting out, it doesn’t matter how much the Yankees offer. Cashman knows this.

    Pete September 6, 2007, 3:09 pm
  • This is also a very good essay on peaks:
    http://www.tangotiger.net/aging.html
    The conclusion is age 27.
    I’d be curious see the ones that say 28-31 and the difference in stats.

    Pete September 6, 2007, 3:39 pm
  • Pete, who do you root for? I’m confused now.
    My thoughts exactly, Lockland.

    Paul SF September 6, 2007, 3:48 pm
  • There’s a physical peak and there’s a mental peak. Stats are the results of a combination of the two.
    ARod’s best statistical season might be this year (we’ll see, but at least in terms of OPS+ thus far). And ya, he’s 32.

    Lar September 6, 2007, 3:57 pm
  • Paul, if you could give me specific examples of what barbs I slinged… just kidding.
    Lockland, while I don’t see Yankee fans who think A-Rod won’t opt out as being unrealistically arrogant (more like naive or uninformed), it’s likely that’s what will happen.
    Hey, I don’t mind baiting the other team’s fans or wishful thinking at all, that’s part of what being a Yankees fan or a Sox fan is all about. Just don’t pretend that it’s not. Peace.

    doug YF September 6, 2007, 4:05 pm
  • What? I’m not rah-rah enough for you guys?
    Sorry, but I think honest (not fanboy) assessments earn more respect. I like Youk, but I’m not going to exaggerate how good he is. He’s good, not great, and 1B has a mighty high bar. And that doesn’t change that he’s better as a 3B. But, if so, who’s the 1B?
    The unanswered question: What the hell has happened to 1B in the AL? Is it as simple as the 1bmen becoming DH’s? But then teams shoot themselves in the foot by having 1Bmen that can’t hit. Just looking at things, the Sox probably have the best 1B/DH combo in the game. Garko and Hafner is a close second. Pretty crazy how the DH slot has become a position, rather than a way to rest guys. And what Papi goes out there in three of the most important games of the year? Or he’s a pinch hitter?

    Pete September 6, 2007, 4:18 pm
  • “What? I’m not rah-rah enough for you guys?”
    No, I was serious, I really didn’t know.

    LocklandSF September 6, 2007, 4:21 pm

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