Better Late: A’s-Sox Gamer

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159 comments… add one
  • So. To reiterate:
    Blarg.
    Blarg x2.

    stuck working July 28, 2009, 7:59 pm
  • Buchholz devaluing himself faster than a third-world currency!

    SF July 28, 2009, 8:01 pm
  • Buchholz has zero command with his fastball tonight. Throw in the fact that the A’s are teeing off on his change-up and it’s going to get uglier as the night goes on. Lucky to only be down 0-2.

    Atheose July 28, 2009, 8:01 pm
  • Funny, I was just thinking a 1-2-3 inning from the Sox hitters to get Buchholz back out ASAP was just what the doctor ordered.

    stuck working July 28, 2009, 8:03 pm
  • And the Sox bats: DEAD. Again.

    SF July 28, 2009, 8:03 pm
  • What the heck was wrong with that pitch?

    SF July 28, 2009, 8:05 pm
  • Second time through the order, Mazzaro is toast.

    I'mBillMcNeal July 28, 2009, 8:05 pm
  • Clay’s changeup is really a thing of beauty.

    SF July 28, 2009, 8:06 pm
  • Clay is much better when he’s not pretending to be Dice-K.

    I'mBillMcNeal July 28, 2009, 8:07 pm
  • You’ve gotta be shitting me: another night with a roaming strikezone. Change-up was right down the middle, called a ball.
    You’re right though SF, it’s absolutely gorgeous. And I just realized I’m watching in HD, so I have a minute of lag.

    Atheose July 28, 2009, 8:08 pm
  • By the way, that Dice-K story is about the weirdest thing I’ve read in awhile.

    I'mBillMcNeal July 28, 2009, 8:08 pm
  • Lowell has rocks in his pants. And his shoes. So slow to that ball.
    He’s really degrading/degraded.

    SF July 28, 2009, 8:09 pm
  • That won’t go as an error, but really it’s a ball that an above-average 3B gets to and makes a play. So now Clay has given up seven hits, but those of us watching this inning know better. There should be two down and nobody on.

    SF July 28, 2009, 8:09 pm
  • Sigh, slow grounder to Lowell is another infield single. Lot of those this season.

    Atheose July 28, 2009, 8:10 pm
  • Wow, 7 hits and 7 outs for Clay. Not good.

    stuck working July 28, 2009, 8:10 pm
  • Sweeney will hit into a DP.

    I'mBillMcNeal July 28, 2009, 8:10 pm
  • Bot 3, TB 3, CC 0

    I'mBillMcNeal July 28, 2009, 8:10 pm
  • Buchholz through the inning. Hopefully he’s settled down.

    Atheose July 28, 2009, 8:16 pm
  • Mazzaro went through the Yankees order like butter the first time through the order last week, then they tore him up after that.

    I'mBillMcNeal July 28, 2009, 8:18 pm
  • There we go. Leadoff walk.

    SF July 28, 2009, 8:19 pm
  • WTP for Green. Can of corn.

    SF July 28, 2009, 8:20 pm
  • If Ellsbury gets a hit this inning, would we be back to having two players in the lineup hitting .300? Whee!

    stuck working July 28, 2009, 8:21 pm
  • Ells singles through the hole. 1/2, one down.

    SF July 28, 2009, 8:21 pm
  • LOBs this inning will have me VERY irritated.

    I'mBillMcNeal July 28, 2009, 8:22 pm
  • Ellsbury is really hot right now.

    Atheose July 28, 2009, 8:22 pm
  • Pedroia singles. Sacks full. Too hard to score the runner.

    SF July 28, 2009, 8:23 pm
  • Run expectancy here? SOMETHING, PLEASE. ANYTHING.

    SF July 28, 2009, 8:23 pm
  • But no runs …

    I'mBillMcNeal July 28, 2009, 8:23 pm
  • Mazzaro just got HOSED on the first pitch to Youk.

    SF July 28, 2009, 8:24 pm
  • And maybe on the second pitch too. Low, but basically a good pitch.
    And Youk makes him pay.

    SF July 28, 2009, 8:24 pm
  • Yooks for a deuce!

    I'mBillMcNeal July 28, 2009, 8:25 pm
  • Why’d Patterson go to third? Jesus, the idiotic fielding.

    I'mBillMcNeal July 28, 2009, 8:26 pm
  • I feel better now. Lead, please.

    stuck working July 28, 2009, 8:26 pm
  • Wow, tiny strikezone to Youk. He capitalizes, hitting the 2-0 pitch to left to make it a 2-2 game.

    Atheose July 28, 2009, 8:26 pm
  • Papi makes it 3-0.
    Bay?

    I'mBillMcNeal July 28, 2009, 8:27 pm
  • Bay lucky, makes it 4-2!

    I'mBillMcNeal July 28, 2009, 8:27 pm
  • That’s how you start to break a slump, Jason.

    I'mBillMcNeal July 28, 2009, 8:28 pm
  • A’s coach ejected. Good for him, because this strikezone is horrible tonight.

    Atheose July 28, 2009, 8:31 pm
  • Will a 3-run lead be enough for Buchholz? Eh, I’ll say probably.

    stuck working July 28, 2009, 8:34 pm
  • Though looking at his pitch count, I almost wonder if he’ll make it through 5 IP.

    stuck working July 28, 2009, 8:39 pm
  • OCab walks to become 9th Oakland baserunner … Masterson up in the pen.

    I'mBillMcNeal July 28, 2009, 8:42 pm
  • Amazingly, Oakland has only 2 runs. That’s probably more of a statement about Oakland’s offense than Buccholz’s ability to pitch out of jams.

    I'mBillMcNeal July 28, 2009, 8:45 pm
  • Kottaras walks to start the 4th; the same way the third started.

    I'mBillMcNeal July 28, 2009, 8:46 pm
  • Green regressing to the mean.
    That rhymes!

    SF July 28, 2009, 8:47 pm
  • This ump really sucks. I think he is being harder on Mazzaro than on Buchholz.

    SF July 28, 2009, 8:49 pm
  • Tampa 4, CC 1, bot 5

    I'mBillMcNeal July 28, 2009, 8:49 pm
  • Jacoby doubled up on the 3-6-3. Good play on a weakly hit ball.

    SF July 28, 2009, 8:49 pm
  • DP Sweeney

    I'mBillMcNeal July 28, 2009, 8:54 pm
  • Ump fail.

    SF July 28, 2009, 8:56 pm
  • Nice work. Clay revalued, to an extent.

    SF July 28, 2009, 8:59 pm
  • Hitless inning from Bucky.
    Time for the season finale of Deadliest Catch.

    I'mBillMcNeal July 28, 2009, 8:59 pm
  • A 2-out double, and Clay is pulled. It’s still a close game, and I wholeheartedly approve of them leaving him out there that long.

    Atheose July 28, 2009, 9:13 pm
  • Buerhle through 5 more perfect innings – can we trade for him.

    rootbeerfloat July 28, 2009, 9:27 pm
  • Buehrle is 12 outs from something unthinkable.

    SF July 28, 2009, 9:28 pm
  • Burhrle breaks MLB record for batter retired in a row, record was 40, he is at 42…..

    BillsBurgSF July 28, 2009, 9:28 pm
  • Buehrle perfect through 5.

    I'mBillMcNeal July 28, 2009, 9:36 pm
  • First run off the pen since the break.

    I'mBillMcNeal July 28, 2009, 9:37 pm
  • 11 outs to the unthinkable.

    SF July 28, 2009, 9:40 pm
  • 10

    SF July 28, 2009, 9:41 pm
  • And Buehrle gives up the walk. Hell of a run. And he’s still got another thing going.

    SF July 28, 2009, 9:43 pm
  • Poof. There it goes.

    SF July 28, 2009, 9:44 pm
  • ah well, damn impressive any way

    rootbeerfloat July 28, 2009, 9:45 pm
  • Maybe we should trade for Ellis. He hits well here.

    I'mBillMcNeal July 28, 2009, 9:55 pm
  • Thanks, Oki.

    rootbeerfloat July 28, 2009, 10:02 pm
  • Bard in for some high leverage work here.

    SF July 28, 2009, 10:04 pm
  • Another hit. This game is turning ugly.

    SF July 28, 2009, 10:05 pm
  • is a GIDP too much to ask?

    rootbeerfloat July 28, 2009, 10:06 pm
  • Nomah! GIDP.

    SF July 28, 2009, 10:06 pm
  • TB 6, NYY 2, final.

    Bard induces the DP from Nomie.

    I'mBillMcNeal July 28, 2009, 10:06 pm
  • Thanks, Nomar.

    rootbeerfloat July 28, 2009, 10:06 pm
  • at the rate they’re hitting Zeigler, I dont’ see the need for this aggressive running

    rootbeerfloat July 28, 2009, 10:13 pm
  • Pap’s save opportunity officially in jeopardy after Kottaras’s double. Awesome. Was it a great throw/relay to get Bay?

    Devine July 28, 2009, 10:14 pm
  • Piss poor start by Paps.
    Leadoff walk. Idiot. How many clean innings has Paps had all year?

    SF July 28, 2009, 10:21 pm
  • Goddamit, I hate walk-happy Paps. How his ERA is that low is beyond me.

    Devine July 28, 2009, 10:21 pm
  • One down, nice play by Pedro.

    SF July 28, 2009, 10:23 pm
  • Good running grab by Green heading towards the LF stands. Two down.

    SF July 28, 2009, 10:23 pm
  • And, a bomb. Near homer. Tying run to the plate, two down. 7-5.

    SF July 28, 2009, 10:24 pm
  • Paps is uninspiring. Seems like a heart attack every time, or at least every other time.

    SF July 28, 2009, 10:25 pm
  • Fuck me.
    7-6.

    I'mBillMcNeal July 28, 2009, 10:26 pm
  • Goddamnit Papelbon.

    Atheose July 28, 2009, 10:26 pm
  • Egads. Squibber missed by Paps, then thrown into the dugout. Man in scoring position, still two outs. Just an idiotic play by Green. Bad luck for Paps, though. Should be game over.

    SF July 28, 2009, 10:26 pm
  • Super. Fucking hell.

    Devine July 28, 2009, 10:27 pm
  • Scratch that, man at first. Ball hit the fence, didn’t go into the dugout. Still an inadvisable throw by Green.

    SF July 28, 2009, 10:27 pm
  • This is awful.

    SF July 28, 2009, 10:28 pm
  • Totally predictable.

    Devine July 28, 2009, 10:28 pm
  • God f*cking damnit, infield single ties the game. That stolen 3rd base is now huge.
    Davis goes to third on the passed ball. Wow.

    Atheose July 28, 2009, 10:29 pm
  • What a pathetic inning for Green. And Paps.

    SF July 28, 2009, 10:29 pm
  • Blown save, Green.

    I'mBillMcNeal July 28, 2009, 10:29 pm
  • Green, stop being Lugo.

    Atheose July 28, 2009, 10:30 pm
  • Five runs off the pen.

    I'mBillMcNeal July 28, 2009, 10:30 pm
  • Paps didn’t help himself, IBM, a leadoff walk and a “homer everywhere else”.
    Green shit the bed, though. He should sit for a few games.

    SF July 28, 2009, 10:30 pm
  • Ellsbury-Pedro-Youk for the 9th. I smell walk-off.

    Atheose July 28, 2009, 10:32 pm
  • And an assist on this to DeMarlo Hale, too, for running the Sox out of a four run lead in the 8th.

    SF July 28, 2009, 10:32 pm
  • Yeah no kidding. Why the hell was Bay sent home with ZERO outs?

    Atheose July 28, 2009, 10:32 pm
  • All three runs with two outs.

    Agreed, SF. Green made two ill-advised throws, one in particular he should have shoved in his pocket. Then they let Ellis have third. But Paps, he’s getting ahead then giving them up. Gives up the first career hit to Everidge.

    I'mBillMcNeal July 28, 2009, 10:33 pm
  • I like our chances with an ex-Cub in for Oakland.

    I'mBillMcNeal July 28, 2009, 10:34 pm
  • 2 of 3 runs against Paps are earned.

    I'mBillMcNeal July 28, 2009, 10:35 pm
  • Paps sitting stewing, but frankly he should have experienced this feeling in several other games. The low ERA hides how tenuous some of his outings have been.

    SF July 28, 2009, 10:35 pm
  • Green and Paps should be shot. I’m sure in his head Green blames it on inconsistent playing time.

    Devine July 28, 2009, 10:36 pm
  • I didn’t realize LaRoche had pinch-hit for Papi.

    I'mBillMcNeal July 28, 2009, 10:36 pm
  • Maybe this is appropriate. Buccholz didn’t deserve the win tonight, anyway.

    I'mBillMcNeal July 28, 2009, 10:37 pm
  • IBM, it just means he’ll get a chance to be the hero!

    Atheose July 28, 2009, 10:37 pm
  • Wow, what a play by Kennedy.

    Atheose July 28, 2009, 10:38 pm
  • Exactly, Ath.

    I'mBillMcNeal July 28, 2009, 10:39 pm
  • MDC probably will pitch the 10th.

    I'mBillMcNeal July 28, 2009, 10:41 pm
  • What sucks is that we used Oki and Bard for less than an inning each, with bonus baseball coming up. Good thing we didn’t use Masterson.
    Delcarmen in for the 10th.

    Atheose July 28, 2009, 10:42 pm
  • Nomie whacks one off the wall.
    18 hits for Oakland now.

    I'mBillMcNeal July 28, 2009, 10:46 pm
  • Bay saves the game on a diving play. Whew.
    LETS WIN THIS THING!

    Atheose July 28, 2009, 10:50 pm
  • Yalie Breslow in to pitch for Oakland.

    I'mBillMcNeal July 28, 2009, 10:53 pm
  • 3u.

    I'mBillMcNeal July 28, 2009, 10:55 pm
  • Varitek jogs in from the pen, presumably for a pinch-hit.

    Atheose July 28, 2009, 10:56 pm
  • Holy potatoes, Drew misses a walk-off by 5 feet.

    Atheose July 28, 2009, 10:57 pm
  • The Sox deserve every bit of this shit. 18 hits allowed, 3 errors, a couple of walks, baserunning mistakes and garbage relief pitching,
    Crap effort.

    SF July 28, 2009, 11:00 pm
  • Lowell!

    Atheose July 28, 2009, 11:01 pm
  • Tough to disagree, SF.

    I'mBillMcNeal July 28, 2009, 11:02 pm
  • Ball 1. Wow.

    I'mBillMcNeal July 28, 2009, 11:03 pm
  • 0-2 count crushed for a double. Get this next guy.

    Atheose July 28, 2009, 11:06 pm
  • Maybe we should trade for Ellis. He hits well here.
    Posted by: I’mBillMcNeal | Tuesday, July 28, 2009 at 09:55 PM

    I'mBillMcNeal July 28, 2009, 11:08 pm
  • Ballgame. A’s up 8-7.

    Atheose July 28, 2009, 11:09 pm
  • Rajai Davis from Norwich, CT, sticks it to us again.

    I'mBillMcNeal July 28, 2009, 11:10 pm
  • Six runs for the pen tonight.

    I'mBillMcNeal July 28, 2009, 11:11 pm
  • You suck, IBM.

    Atheose July 28, 2009, 11:11 pm
  • It might be the emotions, but this team feels a ways away from being good enough. Too many aging players, a closer who risks too much, a rotation with question marks, slumps all around, and no left side of the infield.
    Someone talk me down.

    SF July 28, 2009, 11:13 pm
  • Pitch-out, and we STILL can’t get Davis stealing? Wow. We deserve to lose.

    Atheose July 28, 2009, 11:13 pm
  • The ultimate indignity: I just realized I have no cold beer.

    I'mBillMcNeal July 28, 2009, 11:15 pm
  • This loss is planted squarely on some bad infield play in the 9th.

    I'mBillMcNeal July 28, 2009, 11:16 pm
  • Six A’s, including Davis, who came in as a reserve, have multiple hits tonight.
    It must be the emotion of the Rice retirement ceremony.

    I'mBillMcNeal July 28, 2009, 11:17 pm
  • OH, MY GOD!
    A CS, 2-4!

    I'mBillMcNeal July 28, 2009, 11:17 pm
  • And Paps, too. Leadoff walk in the ninth? Incompetent.

    SF July 28, 2009, 11:18 pm
  • Lowell, Kottaras/Varitek, Green, Ellsbury, Pedey …

    I'mBillMcNeal July 28, 2009, 11:19 pm
  • We’ll probably load the bases with no outs and then fail to score anybody.

    Atheose July 28, 2009, 11:19 pm
  • Lowell with a leadoff single, setting up the double play.

    I'mBillMcNeal July 28, 2009, 11:21 pm
  • YEAH, first two batters on!

    Atheose July 28, 2009, 11:22 pm
  • Green better be bunting here.

    Atheose July 28, 2009, 11:23 pm
  • is it too late to mention that these guys need to win for my birthday today?

    rootbeerfloat July 28, 2009, 11:23 pm
  • My wish is his command. Good sac bunt there.

    Atheose July 28, 2009, 11:23 pm
  • Teases.

    I'mBillMcNeal July 28, 2009, 11:24 pm
  • Happy birthday RBF!
    One giant tease. Tying run on third with 2 outs; ain’t nothin’ gunna happen here.

    Atheose July 28, 2009, 11:25 pm
  • Ph lowrie? NO BUNTING.
    Too late.

    SF July 28, 2009, 11:25 pm
  • Why waste a fucking out?!?! Goddamned idiots.

    SF July 28, 2009, 11:26 pm
  • 35 hits, not a single home run.
    What a complete fucking bullshit loss.

    I'mBillMcNeal July 28, 2009, 11:27 pm
  • Sure enough, Pedro with a long fly out. Game over.

    Atheose July 28, 2009, 11:27 pm
  • Well, that sucked.

    stuck working July 28, 2009, 11:28 pm
  • I remember the big-time Baltimore loss, but this might go down as the worst of the year, all things considered.

    Devine July 28, 2009, 11:28 pm
  • Honestly, why waste a valuable out with a pitcher struggling? Stupid, STUPID fucking baseball. Nice way to cap off an abomination of a game.

    SF July 28, 2009, 11:29 pm
  • How many ways did they lose?
    Bay caught at home in the 8th.
    Green screwing the pooch twice in the 9th.
    Papelbon never checking on the runner.
    Saito letting the inherited runner score.
    Bunting in the 11th.
    Just a shit shower.

    Devine July 28, 2009, 11:31 pm
  • Errors in the run of play are one thing, but a choice made to give up an out is worse to me. Tito just went from having been at the mercy of his players to shouldering part of the blame for this fiasco. Nice job, skip.

    SF July 28, 2009, 11:33 pm
  • Hey, the Yankees had just as poor a game, if that’s any consolation. Although without the heartbreak, so it probably isn’t.

    AndrewYF July 28, 2009, 11:34 pm
  • I’d rather we lose 6-2 and be losing the entire time than throw the game away on a dozen miscues in the 9th-11th innings.

    Atheose July 28, 2009, 11:38 pm
  • I just can’t get over the “winning run at the plate with nobody out and a short bullpen but I am going to donate 33% of our remaining outs towards a loss” decision. There will be few decisions that come close to being that fucking stupid during Tito’s remaining years as the Sox’ manager.

    SF July 28, 2009, 11:38 pm
  • During the game I was happy to see Green bunt, cause he’s been horrible at the plate lately. But SF makes a compelling point. We need a good old fashioned Paul post to settle which is the smarter move!

    Atheose July 29, 2009, 7:41 am
  • Tough loss, guys. I’m not usually a fan of bunting, Andy, but doing so with runners on first and second and no outs and down two seems defensible, especially with the 9 hitter at the plate.
    I mean, if neither Pedroia or Ellsbury can get on base or get a hit in that situation, don’t you also deserve to lose?
    My question is: Why not pinch hit for Green? Sure, it means either Baldelli or Varitek would have to play 1B (with Youkilis sliding over and Lowrie going to SS), but isn’t that a reasonable risk with the winning run at the plate?
    I don’t know where to put this, but it is interesting:
    “Joe DiMaggio once thanked the good lord for making him a Yankee. Dustin Pedroia needs to thank someone for putting him in a Boston Red Sox uniform, otherwise many of his home runs may not have cleared the fence.”

    Rob July 29, 2009, 9:19 am
  • I poked around for the odds difference on scoring both runs from 1st and 2nd and no outs versus 2nd and 3rd with 1 out. I couldn’t find it quickly. Anyone know?
    Also, from that link, have any of you ever seen Pedroia hit one out to centerfield or rightfield? It could explain his power outage this year, if teams are clued in. They could be giving him nothing to hit inside and pounding him away. If all he can do is go the other way for a single or double, that’s a win for the pitcher. It also explains his uptick in walks – he’s not getting his pitches so he’s taking the freebie.

    Rob July 29, 2009, 9:27 am
  • I looked for the odds last night but couldn’t find them. Interesting theory on Pedroia; it would certainly explain a lot. One thing the article doesn’t mention are how he hits a lot of hard line-drives off the monster that would have been homers in other stadia. Not sure how many that is though.

    Atheose July 29, 2009, 9:53 am
  • One thing the article doesn’t mention are how he hits a lot of hard line-drives off the monster that would have been homers in other stadia.
    How do you judge that though?
    Greg at HitTracker seems to be doing the best work in the area and I’d think he’d try his best to account for those.

    Rob July 29, 2009, 10:33 am
  • In 2002, with runners on first and second, zero outs, a team should expect to score on average 1.511 runs in that inning.
    If a hitter successfully sacrifices them to second and third, the run expectancy drops to 1.358.
    Of course, if he strikes out or pops out, run expectancy drops to 0.936, and if he grounds into a double play, advancing the lead runner to third with two outs, it plummets to 0.363.
    The question is how much confidence do you have that your hitter will avoid the double play and at least advance the runners. Nick Green strikes out 21 percent of the time and walks six percent of the time, so the chances are good (73 percent) he will put the ball in play. Of those, 40 percent are ground balls and 60 percent are fly balls.
    Meaning that in any given situation, Nick Green is likely:
    To hit a fly ball 44% of the time.
    To hit a ground ball 29% of the time.
    To strike out 21% of the time.
    To walk 6% of the time.
    Six percent of Green’s fly balls have been home runs, translating to less than 3 percent of his total appearances. Of Green’s remaining balls in play, 30 percent have been falling for hits this season, meaning Green had an overall 19 percent chance of getting a base hit (not counting platoon advantage/disadvantage, park effects and other important considerations I don’t have the time to figure out right now, but one can assume, given the Sox were in Fenway, that Green’s chances of getting a hit were actually higher).
    Meanwhile, in GIDP situations, Green has done so at a 16 percent clip. So revising our percentages and remembering that this is context neutral for type of pitcher, ballpark, etc.:
    Green had a 21% chance of striking out,
    A 19% chance of getting a hit short of a home run,
    A 16% chance of grounding into a double play,
    A 6% chance of walking,
    And a 3% chance of winning the game with a walkoff.
    That’s a 28 percent chance that Green’s at bat increases the run expectancy for the inning, and a 37 percent chance that he decreases it worse than he would have done so by bunting. That doesn’t count infield flies, which Green has hit at a nice rate of 19 percent of all his fly balls. If we assume fly balls make up most of the remaining 35 percent of plate appearances, then that means another 7 percent chance that Green worsens the run expectancy by failing to hit the ball out of the infield.
    So when Green stepped to the plate, he had a 28 percent chance of increasing the club’s run expectancy in some form or fashion. (His OBP is actually .311, so I might be cutting him short a little here by ignoring things like HBP, infield hits, errors, etc.) He had a 44 percent chance of drastically lowering the run expectancy by failing to at least advance the runners. And he had a 28 percent chance of advancing the runners with a fly ball out.
    So bunting is actually pretty defensible in that situation, given how bad Green is with the bat. He had a much greater chance of doing even more damage than bunting, and while I agree that giving up outs is not something you should really ever do, if you’re going to do it, that’s the player and situation with which to do it.
    Which is why you should pinch hit Jed Lowrie in that situation.

    Paul SF July 29, 2009, 10:48 am
  • Holy potatoes Paul, great work. What I like about your posts is that they’re almost completely neutral: you could have posted that bunting the runners over decreased the chance of the Sox tying the game, and been done with it. But you dug deeper, and gave us a world of information.
    Well done.

    Atheose July 29, 2009, 11:10 am
  • Oh and by the way, they pinch-ran Lowrie for Lowell at 2B, which was kind of stupid since they were bunting them over anyways.

    Atheose July 29, 2009, 11:11 am
  • Ah, my bad. I was only half-listening to the game at that point.

    Paul SF July 29, 2009, 11:14 am

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