Baseball Prospectus gives us their PECOTA projections for the AL, and low and behold the Sox are in front of the Yanks in the East. How do they come up with PECOTA? Ask them. It’s complicated. Lots of formulas and math. Anyway, it seems extremely scientific and vaguely reliable. Like McDonald’s french fries.
So what’s the difference this year? It seems last year’s Yanks were way luckier than they should have been. By, like, 12 games. And also Womack sucks. And Pavano’s gonna flameout in a league with DHs. And everyone’s aging and no one can field.
The Sox? PECOTA likes Clement, and BP ain’t worried about replacing DLowe, one of “the worst pitchers in baseball last year.”
Make of it what you will.
[Ed Note: This post by YF]