BP Picks the Sox

Baseball Prospectus gives us their PECOTA projections for the AL, and low and behold the Sox are in front of the Yanks in the East. How do they come up with PECOTA? Ask them. It’s complicated. Lots of formulas and math. Anyway, it seems extremely scientific and vaguely reliable. Like McDonald’s french fries.

So what’s the difference this year? It seems last year’s Yanks were way luckier than they should have been. By, like, 12 games. And also Womack sucks. And Pavano’s gonna flameout in a league with DHs. And everyone’s aging and no one can field.

The Sox? PECOTA likes Clement, and BP ain’t worried about replacing DLowe, one of “the worst pitchers in baseball last year.”

Make of it what you will.

[Ed Note: This post by YF]

4 comments… add one
  • We all know after last year that the only predictions that matter are mine. BWAAAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA.

    SF March 22, 2005, 7:11 am
  • Your record last year? Not so good.
    AL East: Boston (wrong)
    AL Central: Chicago (wrong)
    AL West: Oakland (wrong)
    NL East: Philly (wrong)
    NL Central: Chicago (wrong)
    NL West: San Francisco (wrong)
    AL MVP: Schilling (wrong)
    AL CY: Schilling (wrong)
    AL ROY: Mauer (wrong)
    AL Manager: Scoscia (wrong)
    NL MVP: Pujols (wrong)
    NL CY: Oswalt (wrong)
    NL ROY: Edwin Jackson (wrong)
    NL Manager: Dusty Baker (wrong)
    AL Wild Card: Yanks (wrong)
    NL Wild Card: Houston (right)
    AL Champ: Sox (right)
    NL Champ: Astros (wrong)
    World Champ: Sox (right)
    That’s 3 for 19. Not exactly Kreskin. (YF admits to doing only slightly better.) We suspect a similar percentage this year, and just hope you don’t get lucky again on the jackpot.

    YF March 22, 2005, 1:37 pm
  • 1 for 1 in the one that counts. 100%, as far as I am concerned. The individual awards are so hard to call, it’d be interesting to see who, amongst the baseball press (BP and other gearhead sites included) got them right, and what their percentages were.
    As it is, I’ll take calling the champs correctly and nobody else every time (unless it’s the Yankees I pick, of course…).
    (Meanwhile, YF of course can’t see some humor in my comment and instead has to spend time rooting through the archives to show my mathematical standing and that though I picked Albert Pujols to be MVP he in fact came in runner-up. YF’s sense of levity went out the door about the time Johnny Damon jacked one off Javy Vazquez, I think. Come back, old friend!)

    SF March 22, 2005, 2:05 pm
  • Interesting. Click through this link (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=2746) for BP’s 2004 predictions. 6 of their prognosticators picked the Sox to win it all. Only 2(!) picked Bonds to win MVP. Seven of them picked A-Rod to win the AL MVP. Four picked the Royals to win the AL Central. And five of them picked either Javier Vazquez or Mike Mussina to win the CY. Not a single “expert” picked Johan Santana. Tough stuff. Maybe we should all stick to the weather?

    SF March 22, 2005, 2:12 pm

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