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Burning Questions

It may not be rational, but yesterday's poor start by Brad Penny, his second in three appearances, convinces me the Sox need to go after Roy Halladay. Meanwhile, the market for Victor Martinez appears almost nonexistent. Could the Sox actually acquire both? Probably not, but you never know. Maybe a three-way? Theo loves his three-ways! Ok, that didn't come out exactly right.

And are the Yankees really truly sitting this one out?

Rather than rehash every rumor that comes down the 'pike (we're all just refreshing MLBTradeRumors anyway), let's just use this as your trade rumor thread this morning, at least until something substantive takes place anyway.

42 replies on “Burning Questions”

Jon Heyman tweets:
#dodgers decline jays’ request for halladay and are said to be “moving on.” next up: o’s closer sherrill
That price keeps droppin’.

That, or the price has remained the same and teams continue to balk at it. They probably asked for Billingsley and other top prospects.

Apparently, according to SoSH and WEEI, the Sox haven’t even spoken to the Jays in the past three days. That doesn’t sound like a team that’s ‘in’ on Halladay at all. I would expect those prospects to go for Victor Martinez, and for Halladay to remain right where he is.

Halladay is, to me, a greater guarantee of success than a single bat. Cost is greater, but what team wants to face the Sox with Beckett, Lester, Halladay in the mix? That’s a staggering top three, and it must have as much of an impact on the chances for winning as does a single everyday player.
To me, it’s Halladay or Gonzalez. Nobody else does it for me, frankly. If it isn’t either of them, I’d look to move Bay, Paps, see what the market is. Especially Bay. If there’s no superstar (and this team is not a role player away from a Series, at least not to me) then I want the youth infused, Lowrie playing every day, Clay getting starts, maybe even Bowden. Commit to something, Theo.
(disclaimer: it takes two to tango with trades, so it’s not necessarily Theo’s decision)

Throw in Papelbon to Toronto to get Halladay. Would Papelbon, Bowden, Masterson, and a few other prospects get it done? Papelbon is overvalued, and the Jays have been looking for a closer for a while.
Then move Smoltz to the bullpen, Bard as closer. Rotation of Beckett, Halladay, Lester, Buchholz, and one of Wakefield/Penny/whoever.

I would move Bay and Pap as well – of course for the right talent involved. I’d also be inclinded to move Delcarmen and Saito.
What happened to Bay – can hit a fastball a ton, seems that people have figured out the slider away hole.

I realized about a week ago that Jason Bay is basically Jay Buhner. That’s not great, despite gaudy numbers in a couple of categories.

SF, it’s your offense that’s killing you. Are you even league average any more?
Nope.
Hitting = 99 OPS+
Pitching = 114 OPS+
Trading Bay is exactly the wrong thing to do. Martinez, however, would help to turn some of these close losses into close wins.
But, yeah, I’d pay good money to see CC-Dickhole-Joba against Beckett-Halladay-Lester. Still, I think Buchholz could easily be a Halladay in the making. He’s at 132 ERA+ this season (sure, small sample). Halladay on his career? 133 ERA+. Yes, big stretch, but with the prospects and money it’s a lot to pay. You’re looking at an old and expensive team for years to come.

Rob:
What does the addition of Halladay do to the need for a league-average offense, I wonder?

“I realized about a week ago that Jason Bay is basically Jay Buhner.”
And you want to trade him?! Have you never watched Seinfeld?!!!

In order of who I would want: AGonz > Halladay > VMart
Gonzo isn’t coming to Boston, so get Halladay. Our offense is good but slumping, like it did for a while in 2007. I don’t care what your offense is like: with a rotation of Beckett-Halladay-Lester they’d be the best team in baseball.

You’re looking at an old and expensive team for years to come
Is that true? Halladay is only inked thru 2010, same with Beckett. Ortiz expires after next season (contractually, that is!), and Lowell is probably the biggest albatross at this point. Tek is on a one year deal, same with Smoltz.
The Sox will need replacement players, for sure, but the idea that they have locked into a long and aged future is not accurate. They actually have a good number of pending expiration dates on players.

Maybe I’m not understanding your post, SF. You’d want Bay or Papelbon traded if the Sox aren’t able to get Halladay or Gonzales, right? So effectively, you’d be willing to give up on the season (or, at least, lessen the team’s chances of making the post-season) if a superstar is not added, so as to build a stronger team in the future. Is that right?

Is that true?
If you make that move what’s on the farm to replace them? Prospects don’t develop in one or two years. The only option becomes free agency. And there it’s very hard to get quality on short deals. Without replacements from the farm you get locked into free agency because you can trade for pre-arb players and the players reaching free agency are late 20’s early 30’s. I know this from having watched the 2002 to 2006 Yankees.
I don’t understand your 10:53 question.

The Yanks are in an interesting here. I’m not sure what they should do. I guess I’d want them to add a decent reliever and to transition Hughes back into the rotation so that he’s pitching meaningful games by late August and Joba’s innings cap is an issue. But I’m not sure how realistic it is. Seems like the Yanks want Hughes as a set-up guy for the rest of the season.
I’m not high on adding a back-of-the-rotation guy because the price, I think, will be not worth it.

Rob:
The question is differential between runs scored and runs allowed, that’s the most important thing. I’d want to know what we could expect Halladay to do to the Sox’ RA, how his innings might impact the bullpen, etc. In other words, wouldn’t the Sox need to score fewer runs if they added Halladay, just to maintain the status quo with run differential relativism?
Adding a stud arm without subtracting offense is a net positive, from a run differential standpoint. It’s got to be at least as effective a move as adding a bat but not changing the pitching staff positively.
And yes, Nick, that’s basically what I am getting at. I am not a zero-summer with winning. Too many lean years to be that greedy.

“Throw in Papelbon to Toronto to get Halladay. Would Papelbon, Bowden, Masterson, and a few other prospects get it done?”
Why would the Jays even want Papelbon? They’re not contenders, a closer is the last of their needs, and Papelbon is already making $7 million. You’re only going to deal Papelbon to a club that’s in contention, has payroll space, and needs a closer. The market might not actually be all that big.

“Throw in Papelbon to Toronto to get Halladay. Would Papelbon, Bowden, Masterson, and a few other prospects get it done?”
No.

Ok, understood, SF.
It’s a good point, but you still need to be able to score or else you just end up losing 3-2 instead of 4-2. The Yankee (and TB) offense is good enough to score a few off of that rotation. How confident are you in your offense’s ability to score off of the Yankee rotation?
Hold that, 8 and 0 is good enough for confidence.

Apparently, according to SoSH and WEEI, the Sox haven’t even spoken to the Jays in the past three days. That doesn’t sound like a team that’s ‘in’ on Halladay at all. I would expect those prospects to go for Victor Martinez, and for Halladay to remain right where he is.
Andrew, I’m not seeing that anywhere on SOSH, and it’s not being repeated anywhere either. I think it’s safe to say not only are the Sox “in” on Halladay, but that Ricciardi doesn’t really have a choice but to trade him before tomorrow’s deadline, and that two top suitors have reportedly dropped out.
McAdam, meanwhile, is reporting that the Indians offered Martinez to the Sox straight up for Buchholz. The Sox declined. Indicates to me that Martinez will indeed go for a package that does not include Buchholz.

Oh my bad, for some reason I thought Paps was still being paid 775,000. I’m a noob.

McAdam, meanwhile, is reporting that the Indians offered Martinez to the Sox straight up for Buchholz. The Sox declined. Indicates to me that Martinez will indeed go for a package that does not include Buchholz.
Holy crap nice. If we can get Martinez for less than Buchholz I’m all for it.

I still think you guys are reading too much into it if you think both Halladay and Martinez have to be moved. There is the off-season and next July too. Or the teams could hold onto both, pretend to contend in 2010, then take their two draft picks.
We’ll see!

Yeah, personally Rob from the beginning I didn’t think Halladay would get moved at all, and ESPECIALLY not the AL East.
Martinez I think has to be moved at this point though. The Indians have already almost completely dismantled.

Martinez though is cheap and beloved. If they can’t get the equivalent of two first-rounders they might as well keep him.

Well if they’re willing to move him for Buchholz alone (if that report is true) then they’re trying pretty hard to dump him.

But Buchholz would be a great return. He’s pretty much proven he’s a major league starter. That’s very valuable.

14 straight non-quality starts since April 26, 2008 does not equal “proven major league starter” dude.

Actually, here’s the article itself, and the relevant quote:
http://www.bostonherald.com/sports/baseball/red_sox/view/20090730red_sox_talks_go_quiet_source_no_contact_with_jays/
“But if the Red Sox felt the Lee deal put them in position to swoop in for Halladay, they had a funny way of showing it. A source with direct knowledge of the talks between the Jays and Red Sox said last night there had been no contact between the teams over the last three days.”

I still think you guys are reading too much into it if you think both Halladay and Martinez have to be moved.
Martinez is different than Halladay, I think. You’re right that Martinez doesn’t HAVE to be moved and could retain his value through next trade deadline because extending him is a possibility — and because his value is significantly lower, to start with.
Halladay, though, is different because the Blue Jays are wanting to shed payroll immediately, and he is basically a lock to test free agency, which means his value to a team looking to acquire him goes down the less time they can get him for. Right now, he’s worth quite a lot. That value drops the longer the Jays wait.
I know Ricciardi keeps saying he might not trade Halladay at all without the right offer. Since the former is not an option for Toronto, it makes me think Ricciardi is laying the groundwork for claiming he got “the right offer,” regardless of how good the haul ultimately is.

Okay, I was wrong, apparently I looked at the wording backwards and the Red Sox did indeed turn down a one-for-one offer of Buchholz for Martinez. But that doesn’t mean V-Mart can be had for anything else. Maybe the Indians aren’t interested in anyone but Buchholz, like the offseason Texas trade rumors. The Indians don’t have to move V-Mart for anything other than what they want, since he’s only under contract for one more year at $7 million, and the market for an offensive-minded catcher could actually expand in the offseason, since only a handful of teams will feel they can’t contend before the 2010 season starts.

Well at least we can stop pretending that Ortiz’s jump from being more or less cut by the Twins to being one of the most feared sluggers in the game overnight was due to a change in home ballparks and hitting coaching that freed him up to swing away. Sorry SFs – I know this isn’t pleasant news. But even the staunchest defenders had to be seriously suspicious of the inflection point in Ortiz’s mid-career slugging stats.

Thanks for the links, Andrew. Totally missed the three posts talking about that.
Apparently, it was a typo that initially had Cleveland turning down the Buchholz-Martinez deal. McAdam corrected it later to say Boston had turned down the Cleveland offer.

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