History

Friday, April 8th, 2011

Piling On the Optimism (and When Should We Really Worry?)

The 2002 Anaheim Angels got off to a horrendous start. After starting off 3-2, they lost six straight games, then had another four-game losing streak later in April. Through 20 games, the Angels were 6-14. They went on to win 99 games and the World Series.

The previous year's Oakland Athletics could relate. Just 2-3 after five games, the A's dropped seven in a row, played .500 baseball for a couple of weeks, then lost four more. Through 26 games, they were 8-18. they won 102 games and made the playoffs.

None of them could beat the 1914 Boston Braves, however, who lost their first three games, then compiled April losing streaks of five and seven games. Just 3-16 through their first 19 games, they were an abominable 12-28 through early June. They won 94 games and a World Series title.

Adding to these improbable stories are the 1974 Pirates and 2007 Cubs, who started the season 9-20 and 7-13, respectively, and won their (admittedly weak) divisions.

Of course, anything can happen in baseball. The point isn't to say the Red Sox will be just fine even if they lose 28 of their first 40 games, though they very well could be. The point is that teams with arguably less talent than this one have gotten off to worse starts than this one and gone on to make the playoffs.

Is there a line after which we should acknowledge the Sox are not likely to recover? Yes. But i'm not sure anyone knows where that line is. With 21 games left in April, if the Sox were to play at their ideal 95-win pace, they would finish the month 12-15.

A 12-15 month does not destroy a season: the 2008 Red Sox went 11-13 in July. The 2007 Sox went 13-14 in June. The 2004 Sox went 11-14 in June. And the 2003 Sox went 13-14 in May.

But a 10-game losing streak would push the projected April record to 10-17, the second-worst month ever for the Sox in the Theo Epstein era, with only the wretched 9-21 from August 2006 beating it. It's hard to make the playoffs when you're seven games under .500 for one-sixth of your season.

So I'll allow this: If the Sox don't win one game in this weekend's series against the Yankees, there will be legitimate cause for worry that the team won't be able to recover sufficiently from its poor start.

by Paul SF at 10:47 am in General Red Sox,History · 21 comments

Thursday, April 7th, 2011

1996, 2010 and Now

A lot of looking back this morning at the 1996 season, which I remember quite well thanks to my (not altogether normal) practice from 1995-97 of clipping and pasting every article written about the Red Sox in the papers available around New Haven (which at the time meant every paper from Boston, New York and Connecticut and today probably means the New Haven Register and nothing else).

I'll leave it to ESPN Boston to recall the dark days of that April, when the Red Sox started 0-5, 2-12 and 6-19 (though that quote from Kevin Kennedy contrasted with recent comments from Terry Francona reveals why one is now a poor color commentator/baseball analyst while the other is widely recognized as one of baseball's best managers).

But the fate of that club is instructive when we look at statements like "only two teams have ever started 0-5 and made the playoffs."

continue reading…

by Paul SF at 10:50 am in General Red Sox,History · 4 comments

Disheartening Precedent

We are sure that Paul has some serious research up his sleeve that will show us to be off our rocker, but as commenter James pointed out in an earlier thread, an 0-5 start portends what can reasonably be called failure.

If the Sox suddenly start playing .600 baseball (that’s GOOD baseball, for those of you SFs who don’t feel like you can recognize it anymore), they won’t reach .500 for the season until May. And at that point in order to end with a .600 record for the season they will have to play .620 ball the rest of the way. That’s to win 97 games, a number at which the Sox can very reasonably expect success and a playoff appearance.

There is a long way to go, and we are trying to keep our wits. But you don’t give Usain Bolt a 2.5% head start, you don’t spot the Miami Heat 4 points in a game, and you sure as hell don’t want to start a season 0-5.

The Sox best win tonight or this season may be over (at least without an historically unprecedented accomplishment ahead) before tax day.

[EDIT: Nick and I cross-posted the top two missives. We'll leave them up in the interest of giving everyone a clear vision of synchronous YF/SF-think and for historical posterity should the dynamic of the season take a big turn]

by SF at 6:51 am in General Red Sox,History · 7 comments

Monday, April 4th, 2011

Take Deep Breaths

What do these teams all have in common?

  • The 104-win* 1883 NL champion Boston Beaneaters
  • The 114-win* 1897 NL champion Boston Beaneaters
  • The 108-win* 1911 World Series champion Philadelphia A's
  • The 99-win* 1914 World Series champion Boston Braves
  • The 104-win* 1928 Philadelphia Athletics
  • The 105-win* 1941 NL champion Brooklyn Dodgers
  • The 100-win* 1948 Boston Red Sox
  • The 99-win* 1954 Chicago White Sox
  • The 99-win 1964 AL champion New York Yankees
  • The 98-win 1964 Chicago White Sox
  • The 97-win 1969 division champion Minnesota Twins
  • The 101-win 1971 division champion Oakland Athletics
  • The 94-win 1974 World Series champion Oakland A's
  • The 88-win 1974 division champion Pittsburgh Pirates
  • The 101-win 1977 division champion Philadelphia Phillies
  • The 97-win 1977 Baltimore Orioles
  • The 96-win 1977 Pittsburgh Pirates
  • The 90-win 1979 division champion Cincinnati Reds
  • The 99-win 1983 division champion Chicago White Sox
  • The 90-win 1983 NL champion Philadelphia Phillies
  • The 101-win 1985 NL champion St. Louis Cardinals
  • The 97-win 1985 New York Yankees
  • The 99-win 1996 division champion Cleveland Indians
  • The 114-win 1998 World Series champion Yankees
  • The 100-win 1999 division champion Arizona Diamondbacks
  • The 96-win 1999 Cincinnati Reds
  • The 101-win 2003 division champion Atlanta Braves
  • The 89-win 2009 division champion Philadelphia Phillies

* Prorated to 162-game season

You've probably guessed it by now: Each of those 28 teams — all winners of at least 95 games or their division — started the season 0-3. 

by Paul SF at 3:27 pm in General Red Sox,History · 7 comments

Monday, March 14th, 2011

The Century Mark: Recap

So what can we learn from the Red Sox' previous experiences with 100 wins?

The 1912 Red Sox had one of the best starting rotations ever seen, led by an all-time great season from Smoky Joe Wood. They allowed just 544 runs in 152 games, well below the league average of 687. With 76 wins as the league average, that 143-run advantage (about 14 wins) bumped the Sox up to 90 wins. They only needed to be 100 runs better than average as a team on offense to win 100 games, which is just about exactly what they did. Their Pythag record was 102-50.

The 1915 club also had an incredible pitching staff, thanks to the emergence of starters like Rube Foster, Ernie Shore and Babe Ruth, with Wood's last hurrah helping out, as well. Though not as dominant as the 1912 club, the '15 Sox allowed an infinitesimal 499 runs, eight more than the Big Train-led Senators. The league average was quite low, just 615 runs allowed, which meant the 1915 club gained just 11 or 12 wins from their pitching, roughly half the total needed for a 100-win season. But the offense wasn't good enough to cover that difference — scoring just 53 runs more than the league average. As a result, the team's Pythag was just 96-55, third-best in the league. The Sox got lucky, winning five more than they "should have," helped mostly by a 29-21 record in one-run games, four games better than a luck-neutral .500 record. 

On the other hand, the 1946 club, while it had a decent pitching staff, needed help from a dominant offense. Tex Hughson, Boo Ferriss and company allowed just 594 runs, and that was 36 runs better than league average, but that paled in comparison to the 792 runs Ted Williams, Boby Doerr, Johnny Pesky, Dom DiMaggio and Rudy York helped compile. It was truly a Yawkey-esque team, and it scored 162 runs more than the league average. Put together, the pitching and offense combined to be worth nearly 200 runs better than average — roughly 99 wins (Pythag record of 97-57). Once again, luck helped the team push over the top, finishing an astounding 27-17 in one-run games.

We can look at clubs that almost made the cut — the 1978 Sox collapsed down the stretch but would have won 100 games if they could have dispatched the Yankees in the one-game playoff. They were all about the offense. The 2004 club won 98 games (and was arguably more talented than that post-trade deadline) and had five starters appear in at least 32 games, and of course their offense wasn't bad either.

In the end, I think the better clubs of these five — 1912, 1915 and 2004 — were pitching-oriented clubs, and if nothing else that pitching certainly pushed them through the postseason to ultimate glory. Those clubs that relied mostly on their offense — 1946, 1978 — still compiled impressive records but failed when it counted most. In the end, luck plays a pretty big role, too.

The 2011 Red Sox appear to be well balanced. The offense has fewer question marks than the pitching staff, but if Josh Beckett and John Lackey can pitch to their career averages, and the team can counteract the horrible luck of 2010 with just a little good luck in 2011, 100 wins is certainly not out of the question.

by Paul SF at 3:40 pm in General Red Sox,History · 3 comments

Thursday, March 10th, 2011

The Century Mark: 1946 Red Sox

Well, a lot happened between the previous time the Red Sox won 100 games and the last time they accomplished the feat. In 1915, the Sox had won their second World Series in four years. They would win two in the next three only to be dismantled in spectacular fashion, plummet to the basement and stay there through a succession of horrendous owners.

Tom Yawkey for all his flaws made an effort to change that. He didn't really know how to do it effectively; he essentially threw money at the problem, set the organization back for decades with his racist policies, and micromanaged the team before giving up on it when it failed to win the Series like a child frustrated with a broken toy.

But at least he tried. And in 1946, none of the rest of that had come into play yet. The Red Sox were back together again after World War II. The four Teammates were there. They had last played together in 1942, when 23-year-old Ted Williams followed up his .406 campaign by posting an OPS+ of just 216. Bobby Doerr (24 years old) and Dom DiMaggio (25) each had an OPS+ over 120, and rookie shortstop Johnny Pesky (22) posted a 119. It was an outstanding young core, one of the best the franchise has ever seen. As a result, the '42 Sox finished second in runs and first in OPS.

continue reading…

by Paul SF at 2:35 pm in General Red Sox,History · 0 comments

Monday, February 28th, 2011

The Century Mark: 1915 Red Sox

The 1912 Red Sox remain arguably the best club in franchise history, thanks largely to all-time great seasons by ace starter Joe Wood and future Hall of Fame center fielder Tris Speaker and a handful of career years by starters and infielders who would fail to replicate those seasons in subsequent campaigns.

On top of that, Wood was beset by injuries that would ultimately derail his career. He managed only 23 appearances in 1913 with just a 129 ERA+. His WAR dropped from 9.6 in 1912 to 2.5 the next year. By 1914, he seemed done, posting a league-average 2.62 ERA in just 18 appearances. At 24, Wood seemed done.

As a result, the Sox were scrambling for starters.

continue reading…

by Paul SF at 11:32 am in General Red Sox,History · 0 comments

Friday, February 25th, 2011

The Century Mark, an Introduction

One hundred wins is arguably the crowning achievement for a baseball team. By rule, six teams must be division winners, two teams must win a pennant and one team must be crowned the champion each season, and as the 2006 Cardinals can attest, you're not even required to be particularly good if enough things work out for you. But in no season is a 100-game winner guaranteed. There have been 93 of them in the 110 years since the American League began, ranging from the 1978 Yankees, who needed a 163rd game to cross the century mark, to the incredible 1906 Cubs, who won 116 of their 152 games.

While the Yankees' relationship with 100 wins has been fairly straightforward — they've done it. A lot (19 times, as a matter of fact) — the Red Sox' seems more interesting.

continue reading…

by Paul SF at 4:14 pm in General Red Sox,General Yankees,History · 5 comments

Wednesday, February 23rd, 2011

The Top 100

Baseball America today released its list of baseball's top 100 prospects. The relevant names (in order of appearance, overall ranking in parentheses):

  1. (3) Jesus Montero, C, Yankees
  2. (30) Gary Sanchez, C, Yankees
  3. (31) Casey Kelly, RHP, Padres
  4. (41) Manny Banuelos, LHP, Yankees
  5. (52) Jose Iglesias, SS, Red Sox
  6. (43) Dellin Betances, RHP, Yankees
  7. (67) Anthony Ranaudo, RHP, Red Sox
  8. (75) Anthony Rizzo, 1B, Padres
  9. (78) Andrew Brackman, RHP, Yankees
  10. (97) Drake Britton, LHP, Red Sox
  11. (98) Austin Romine, C, Yankees

Montero is obviously the class of the bunch, though you can of course fill pages with the controversy over whether he's really a catcher and if not what the Yankees will do with him given their cloggy situation at first base/DH for the foreseeable future.

After that, it's fairly evenly split between Yankees and Red Sox or ex-Red Sox. I added the players included in the Adrian Gonzalez trade for some context; the Sox paid a heavy price for Gonzalez's services, though one I think most everyone would gladly pay considering the lack of MLB-ready talent in the package (no, Eric Patterson doesn't count). Of course, the trade did happen — and Ryan Westmoreland did have brain surgery — and as a result the Sox are thin at the top: Iglesias and Ranaudo have received plenty of hype, Britton less so.

Conversely, the Yankees are quite deep at the top, and there has been no shortage of ink spilled over the promise of Montero and the Killer Bs, though I have to say Sanchez is an unfamiliar name to this non-Yankee fan.

Below the jump, we'll compare and contrast with some other prospect lists, as well as some historical ones.

continue reading…

by Paul SF at 2:19 pm in General Baseball,General Red Sox,General Yankees,History · 36 comments

Tuesday, January 11th, 2011

Running of the Simulators, Part 8 (Recap)

Last in a series (Part 1, Part 2, Part 3, Part 4, Part 5, Part 6, Part 7)

So what have we learned about the simulations' general accuracy? 

  • In 2010, the Yankees finished one game and the Rays two games shy of the average projection. The Red Sox finished off by six games, but no projection can — and no projection should — project a season like that.
  • In 2009, the Red Sox finished one game better than projected, but the Yankees overperformed by seven games.
  • In 2008, the projections generally punted. The Rays were 12 games better than projected, the Yankees were six games worse, and the Red Sox were three games better. Only the Blue Jays were projected more or less accurately.
  • In 2007, no projection was closer than four games off of the Red Sox' ultimate record, but they pretty much nailed the Yankees'.
  • In 2006, the Sox underperformed by three games, the Blue Jays overperformed by four, and the Yankees were seven games better than the average projection.
  • In 2005, the projections nailed it, placing the Sox and Yankees one game off, one either side, of the clubs' ultimate first-place tie.

Of the 16 AL East teams projected over the course of the last six years, I count the number of successes (two games or fewer) at seven — a 43.8 percent success rate. As for significant misses (four games or more), I also count seven. And twice, the projections were three games off, which is right on the border between being fairly close and pretty obviously not close. 

Then there's the other, arguably more important facet, which is whether they got the standings right, even if one team ended up significantly better or worse than projected. Being seven games off the Yankees' record doesn't matter nearly as much if the Yanks were expected to finish in first anyway, for example.

On that score, the projections got it right in 2005 and 2009. That's it.

They get partial credit for 2006 in correctly projecting the division winner but swapping second and third.

They missed entirely in 2007, 2008 (though correctly projecting the Sox to finish second, I don't count it as a success if you miss on the first- and third-place teams) and 2010, when all three teams finished differently than projected.

So successful, or at least correctly projecting the division winner, three times, missing the boat three times. Taking that with the roughly 50/50 success rate in terms of raw record projection, it seems we can be about 50 percent certain of the projections being correct in any given season.

As Hudson noted on one of the previous threads, it seems like we could randomly pick two numbers between 92 and 98, then assign the higher number to the Yankees and the other to the Red Sox, and we would have just as likely a chance at correctly projecting the AL East as 1,000 simulations of whatever top-flight projection systems are out there today. 

If we did that, we would get it right in 2005 and 2009, get the division winner correct in 2006, and miss it entirely in 2007, 2008 and 2010. Just like the projections.

But that doesn't make them any less fun, which of course is the entire point.

by Paul SF at 10:09 am in General Red Sox,General Yankees,History,Predictions and Projections · 10 comments

Saturday, January 8th, 2011

Running of the Simulators, Part 7 (2010)

Seventh in a series (Part 1, Part 2, Part 3, Part 4, Part 5, Part 6)

And so we reach last offseason, the infamous "Bridge Year" for Theo Epstein and the Red Sox.

The Sox signed Marco Scutaro to keep shortstop warm for Jose Iglesias, picked up Adrian Beltre to play third on a make-good, one-year deal, and signed Mike Cameron to play center field while Jacoby Ellsbury, Ryan Kalish and Josh Reddick continued their development. 

The Sox parted ways with Jason Bay, perhaps looking more toward the 2010-11 offseason than was believed at the time, though the defensive upgrade to Ellsbury in left and Cameron in center was (or should have been) significant. The Sox also threw a plate of spaghetti at the bullpen wall to see what stuck. But the Sox also made a big-name signing, as well, locking up John Lackey. Other signings didn't make much of a splash at the time, but the Sox picked up scrap heap bench players Darnell McDonald and Scott Patterson, as well.

Finally, in the feel-good move of the offseason, the Sox signed Nomar Garciaparra to a one-day contract, whereupon he retired as a member of the Red Sox.

The Yankees, obviously didn't need to make as many moves. But they did trade for Curtis Granderson to replace the departing Johnny Damon, re-signed Andy Pettitte after he considered retirement (again), released Chien-Ming Wang, signed Nick Johnson to replace Hideki Matsui and traded Melky Cabrera to Atlanta for old friend Javier Vasquez, giving Brett Gardner room to roam in center. Bench and bullpen moves included picking up Marcus Thames and Chan Ho Park.


continue reading…

by Paul SF at 8:20 am in General Red Sox,General Yankees,History,Predictions and Projections · 0 comments

Thursday, January 6th, 2011

Running of the Simulators, Part 5 (2008)

Fifth in a series. (Part 1, Part 2, Part 3, Part 4)

Coming off a World Series win and with a young core in place, the Red Sox were in a strong position to sit tight in the offseason, figuring out only what to do with aging veterans (but key 2007) pieces Mike Lowell and Curt Schilling, both of whom were eligible for free agency.

They resolved those questions quickly, re-signing both in deals the team would come to regret. Other moves were minor, aimed at reinforcing the bench and bullpen, as the Sox traded for David Aardsma and signed Sean Casey.

The Yankees, meanwhile, had a pressing need: to re-sign Alex Rodriguez, who had caused a stir when he opted out of his contract by holding a sign reading, "Screw you, Cashman!" as he parachuted onto the Coors Field grass in the middle of World Series Game 4. Then he slugged Jonathan Papelbon in the face. (He later explained: "Well, who hasn't wanted to do that?")

While negotiations continued, the Yankees also made some minor moves, signing LaTroy Hawkins and releasing Andy Phillips. The Yankees, in much the same situation as the Red Sox with their key veteran pieces, then re-signed Andy Pettitte to a one-year deal, Rodriguez to a 10-year contract and Mariano Rivera to a three-year deal. Finally, in a surprising coup de grâce that shifted for generations the balance of power in the AL East, the Yankees signed Billy Crystal to a one-day contract near the end of spring training.

continue reading…

by Paul SF at 4:44 pm in General Red Sox,General Yankees,History,Predictions and Projections · 9 comments

Tuesday, January 4th, 2011

Running of the Simulators, Part 3 (2006)

Third in a series (Part 1, Part 2)

Coming off the close-fought but ultimately disappointing 2005 season, the Sox and Yankees had dramatically different offseasons, emphasis on the drama, at least in Boston's case.

The Theo Epstein saga shook Boston for weeks, as the GM feuded with Larry Luchhino, quit the team, left in a gorilla suit, was rumored to be advising his interim replacements while he vacationed in the tropics (with Pearl Jam? Is this some kind of weird dream where I end up naked on the last day of school?), then came back in triumphant glory, or something like that. In the meantime, the Sox traded four prospects for Josh Beckett and Mike Lowell, and it remains debated to this day whether Epstein had a hand in the deal, tacitly approved it or would have vetoed it had he been fully in charge.

In less dramatic moves, the Sox replaced Mark Bellhorn by trading Doug Mirabelli for Mark Loretta and dumping Edgar Renteria on the Braves for Andy Marte and signing Alex Gonzalez. In an effort to revamp the bullpen, the Sox signed Rudy Seanez and Julian Tavarez and traded for David Riske as part of the deal that brought in Coco Crisp (and sent Marte to Cleveland).

Of course, bringing in Crisp was necessary because the Sox' incumbent center fielder, Johnny Damon, signed with the Yankees. We won't go into all the recriminations and drama, but needless to say, there were and there was. It was the biggest move in a relatively quiet Yankee offseason, as the Yanks signed Mike Myers, Kyle Farnsworth and Octavio Dotel in an effort to address their own bullpen issues but otherwise stood pat.

That March, SG ran the Diamond Mind simulations, adding a third 1,000-run set for PECOTA, which at the time was actually reliable because it was still run by Nate "Midas" Silver, who is now the best political blogger not named Ezra Klein or Jonathan Chait. 

continue reading…

by Paul SF at 11:57 pm in General Red Sox,General Yankees,History,Predictions and Projections · 0 comments

Wednesday, December 22nd, 2010

The Official Paul-SF HOF Ballot

Because it matters oh, so much.

A couple caveats: I'm a large-Hall guy, so I usually fill up all 10 spots, and I value peak more heavily perhaps than the typical voter. It's how I balance the "fame" aspect of the Hall with the more objective career value considerations. But one great season amid a non-excellent career (Maris, for example) doesn't do it for me either.

You can check out the eligibles, ranked by WAR, at Baseball-Reference.

They'll surprise you. Alomar is all but certain to be elected this year, yet he's only tied for ninth, and several of the guys considered borderline outrank him: Walker, Edgar Martinez, Trammell, Raines. Bagwell is second only to Blyleven. He should be inducted. But just having a great WAR doesn't necessarily cut it if a lot of other players at your position also had a great WAR, so let's take a look at some of these guys.

continue reading…

by Paul SF at 3:28 pm in Awards/HOF,General Baseball,History · 11 comments

Tuesday, December 14th, 2010

Best Rotation Ever? Boston’s

Well, the one from 98 years ago, anyway. Cliff Lee would be battling Hugh Bedient to be the fourth starter on that staff. And don't even get me started on Smokey Joe Wood.

by Paul SF at 3:15 pm in General Baseball,General Red Sox,History · 2 comments

Thursday, December 9th, 2010

The Legacy

  • Ted Williams, 1939-60
  • Carl Yastrzemski, 1961-73
  • Jim Rice, 1975-87
  • Mike Greenwell, 1987-96
  • Manny Ramirez, 2001-08
  • Carl Crawford, 2011-17?

by Paul SF at 10:45 am in General Red Sox,History · 8 comments

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