Categories General Yankees Dear Yankees, Post author By Paul SF Post date March 10, 2009 19 Comments on Dear Yankees, Install Xavier Nady as your full-time right fielder and trade Nick Swisher. Please. HT: Neyer. ← Jaw Dropped → Honk Twice for Honkball 19 replies on “Dear Yankees,” Yeah, I was actually pretty happy with the Swisher deal when it happened – although I didn’t realize he was THAT good (or that ridiculously unlucky in ’08). Let’s hope the Yanks recognize what they have. Let’s hope the Yanks recognize what they have. They will…by June. Especially with A-Rod down, I can totally see them thinking they’d get more pop from Nady. Maybe I’ve been conditioned by Torre’s vet love, but I just don’t see them giving Swisher a fair shake until well into the season. Nady offers fine protection as a 4th outfielder, but there’s a reason he’s never been more than that on any contending team. Kudos to driveline for making that abundantly clear. Still, it would have been very nice to have Manny AND Swisher. What gives me hope is that Girardi is supposedly a big metrics guy – he has the James Historical Abstract and other such reference books on his desk. What makes me afraid is that someone will fleece Cashman while he’s looking for a league-average stopgap at 3B for 8 weeks. Or, 08 repeats itself. and Yankee fans will wish they did move him. Either can happen. Plus, they’d have a hard time moving him righ now without eating that contract. No team needs that kind of bat for that kind of money. NY would have to swallow most of it to make it worth any team taking the off chance that last year was a fluke. “No team needs that kind of bat for that kind of money” He’s only making $5.3 mil this year. Which in the grand scheme of things isnt bad even if he doesnt bounce back by too much. Im also pretty sure the yankees have a good idea what they have with Swisher. They were certainly made a number of offers for him in the offseason and didnt take any with good reason. Im excited to see him get a chance for a good number of ABs this season. I wish he could play 3b….. If the Yanks chose, they’d have no problem moving Nady and without sending $ too. They just wouldn’t get an A prospect in return (but then they didn’t give up one to get him). Nady is an average OF. There are plenty of places for him and $6.5 million is very reasonable. What gives me hope is that Girardi is supposedly a big metrics guy – he has the James Historical Abstract and other such reference books on his desk. I’ve read the same. Still, it didn’t stop him from playing Cabrera all of last season. Nor has that knowledge helped him to move Jeter off SS. We’ll see. I’ll be pleased if Nady starts the year on the bench then replaces Damon or Matsui when they see southpaws. I wish he could play 3b… Me too. Wasn’t Brad the one saying Nady could play 3B? Yeah… Sam, I haven’t forgotten about your offer. We still haven’t heard from the Empire. It’s frustrating but understandable. I’ve read the same. Still, it didn’t stop him from playing Cabrera all of last season. Nor has that knowledge helped him to move Jeter off SS. We’ll see. How much power would Cashman have to decide who plays CF over Girardi? Honest question, because I genuinely don’t know. I was always under the impression that it was somewhat taboo to try to dictate to a manager who to play where, aside from the actual acquisition of the player himself. Also, if Cashman suggested to one of the Steinbrenners that Jeter be moved to 1B they’d butcher him. Can you imagine the headlines: “Cashman to Jeter: ‘Move to First'”? He’d practically be throwing his job away. Me too. Wasn’t Brad the one saying Nady could play 3B? Yeah. No, I made a joke because he has played 3 games there. But we are talking about the same team that put Sheffield on first in the playoffs, so nothing is out of the question. That was post-’02 Torre! “Or, 08 repeats itself. and Yankee fans will wish they did move him. Either can happen.” Sure, it can happen. It’s just not likely to. Really, really not likely to. Sure, it can happen. It’s just not likely to. Really, really not likely to. I agree to a degree, but the point is moot. They aquired him to be a nice bench replacement or a 4/5 OF. He isn’t a great player, nor has he ever been, so if he can come close to things he did early, they’ll be happy with it. If not, they’re not out that much at all and he’ll ride the bench. I just don’t think he’s as unlucky as some others because the balls he hit were caught – if we’re going to use that as the analytical stick for luck, we can all get back into the Wang debate, which nobody wants to do. I agree to a degree? Sorry – That’s just bad wording. I just don’t think he’s as unlucky as some others because the balls he hit were caught – if we’re going to use that as the analytical stick for luck, we can all get back into the Wang debate, which nobody wants to do. But you’re arguing against a statistically sound premise: That pitchers have essentially no control over what happens to the balls that are put in play against them, while hitters have little control beyond their career norms. I had another paragraph written to show how unlucky Swisher was, but then I ran his BABIP numbers and while, yes, he was unlucky, I don’t think we can just chalk his poor performance in 2008 simply to luck. If we give Swisher 26 points of BABIP back, to go from his 2008 total of .249 to five points above his career average of .275 (recognizing that the poor 2008 would have dragged down that career total), he gets 11 extra hits and his 2008 looks like this: .241/.350/.433. Still not so hot. That’s not really fair, though, as not all 11 hits would have been singles. They can’t be home runs, given BABIP subtracts out home runs. A quarter of Swisher’s non-homer hits last year were doubles, so give him three of the 11 hits for two bases. That raises his slugging to .439. .241/.350/.439 is Swisher’s BABIP-adjusted line for 2008, certainly much better than his 2008 line of .219/.332/.410 and not far below his career average of .244/.354/.451. But it’s definitely well below the .262/.381/.455 he had in 2007 and the .254/.372/.493 of 2006. So maybe luck wasn’t the whole answer. Regardless, I still see Swisher as the bigger offensive threat for 2009. Excellent walk through the numbers-based logic. Regardless, I still see Swisher as the bigger offensive threat for 2009. And you’re not alone. Then add in his plus defense and it shouldn’t be close. BABIP isn’t the same for pitchers and hitters. In the sense that hitters have control of their BABIP, to some degree, while for a pitcher it is out of their hands. So to speak.. Or at least, that used to be the thought: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/babip-splits I’ve been playing The Show nonstop, got to catch up with the literature! Lar, I’ve understood BABIP to still generally be bound by a hitter’s career norms (Manny and Jeter, for example have always had very high BABIP), though variations are more likely from year to year. Leave a ReplyYou must be logged in to post a comment. This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.