Disheartening Precedent

We are sure that Paul has some serious research up his sleeve that will show us to be off our rocker, but as commenter James pointed out in an earlier thread, an 0-5 start portends what can reasonably be called failure.

If the Sox suddenly start playing .600 baseball (that’s GOOD baseball, for those of you SFs who don’t feel like you can recognize it anymore), they won’t reach .500 for the season until May. And at that point in order to end with a .600 record for the season they will have to play .620 ball the rest of the way. That’s to win 97 games, a number at which the Sox can very reasonably expect success and a playoff appearance.

There is a long way to go, and we are trying to keep our wits. But you don’t give Usain Bolt a 2.5% head start, you don’t spot the Miami Heat 4 points in a game, and you sure as hell don’t want to start a season 0-5.

The Sox best win tonight or this season may be over (at least without an historically unprecedented accomplishment ahead) before tax day.

[EDIT: Nick and I cross-posted the top two missives. We'll leave them up in the interest of giving everyone a clear vision of synchronous YF/SF-think and for historical posterity should the dynamic of the season take a big turn]

7 comments… add one

  • I seem to remember one too many times where this Sox team did something that had never been done before. I don’t count them out in the first week of April. This team has the talent to be very, very good.
    I’m going to the Sunday night game and three rows from the Yankee dugout. Cheering a sweep and 0-9 would get me curb stomped. For my own safety, I hope the Sox win soon!

    James YF April 7, 2011, 7:59 am
  • my worst fear is that the sox will cure this slump they are in by sweeping the yankees…ugh

    dc April 7, 2011, 8:24 am
  • This is getting rediculous.
    They had the Indians on the ropes all night (until Reyes, of course), and failed to stomp on them.
    They’re really pressing here. And, it doesn’t flippin help that Jacoby and Scutaro and damn near automatic outs lately. Terry needs to rework this lineup now, well before the NY series this weekend. May I suggest:
    Pedroia
    Crawford
    Gonzo
    Youkilis
    Ortiz
    Salty
    Drew
    Lowrie
    Ellsbury
    In this lineup, everyone who needs some protection has it, Ellsbury isn’t in a pressure situation, and Salty sees pitches to hit.
    Make it fucking happen, Tito.

    Brad April 7, 2011, 8:49 am
  • the problem with any lineup the sox throw out there at this point is that with all of the talent on this team, the bottom 3rd of the order is going to be a weak link with guys like lowrie, scutaro, salty, tek, i’ll even toss drew in there…it looks like the only guy hitting worth a damn is agon, but you know the other guys will step it up at some point…i’m sure it’s just my wierd way of thinking, but i think too much emphasis is placed on batting order…like all the hooha in ny about whether jeter or gardner should lead off…what difference does it make?…sure it makes sense to get the hot speedy guy a few more at bats at the top of the lineup, and it makes sense to position agon behind crawford and ped, but after the 1st inning, the leadoff guy may never lead off again in the game…the biggest problem any lineup has is the bottom 3rd are usually rally killers…the problem for them right now is that the whole lineup is a bunch of rally killers, but you know that won’t last…sorry, i’m not trying to be a d*ck, but i just don’t see how shaking up the lineup again helps…

    dc April 7, 2011, 9:38 am
  • I’m not agreeing, dc.
    Having watched every game (or most of each), I can tell you this:
    Pitchers know Salty can hit the ball out of the park, but have no reason to give him fastballs. Any pitcher in baseball would rather face Salty than drew, so protect him a little bit.
    Ped is smoking the ball, and sooner or later, those are going to not find gloves, but at least he’s not striking out.
    Lowrie is a good at bat, better than Scutaro, but at this point, Scutaro is just struggling to even make contact. None of them are a “weak link”, respectively.
    They need to be in positions where they’re not hurting the team with where they are right now.
    Like everything, it’s never as bad or good as it seems in the moment, but Francona needs to adjust to where these guys are right now, and not where they should be later on.

    Brad April 7, 2011, 10:00 am
  • i should have admitted that i haven’t watched any of the sox games…i’m just basing my comments on game summaries and the small sample of stats so far…you make some good points, and i can’t disagree with you…i just wonder if 5 games is enough to determine that shaking up the lineup is the answer…is ellsbury suddenly going to start hitting because he moved from leadoff to 9th?…like i said, in subsequent at bats he will be batting ahead of pedroia…just like he would be if they were slotted 1 and 2…i would think you’d want your speed guy at or near the top of the lineup to get him a few more at bats, even though he’s not producing, yet…the tough part for francona is that the slump is team-wide, and even includes the pitching staff…they will come out of it, or most of them will, and then he can tinker with the lineup to make adjustments for the guys that are hot, and those that are not so hot…

    dc April 7, 2011, 10:26 am
  • Na, I see what you’re saying, but at this point, guys are pitching around guys to get to those guys that are ice cold.

    Brad April 7, 2011, 12:37 pm

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