Doing Some Lines

So the Yankees are firmly entrenched as favorites in the land of sports betting.  The boys from the Bronx are listed at as 4-9 favorites to win the East, while the Sox check in at 2-1.  Additionally, the Yanks are 9-5 to win the AL, and 7-2 to win the whole thing.  The Sox are 4-1 to win the AL, and 9-1 to take the Series.  Those odds for the Yankees in the division are atrocious from a money-making standpoint, and we can only think that the linesmakers are trying to steer money away from the Bombers.  That makes some sense.  And a two-for-one payoff for the Sox sounds like a reasonable deal, though not one we’re willing to make.  Not because we don’t think the Sox can win the division, but because we don’t gamble on sports.  Ever. 

(But 9-1, hmmm.  We’re tempted…)

7 comments… add one
  • Those odds for the Yanks are ridiculous, especially the 7-2 to win it all. 9-1 seems closer to reasonable, though if you believe that in the short series of the playoffs all teams are equal, than every playoff team has an 8-1 shot at the title. so at 9-1 you’re practically assuming your team makes the playoffs, which is by no means a gimme for any team.
    i’m keeping my cash in my pocket. tangle with vegas at your peril.

    YF February 6, 2007, 10:13 am
  • These odds make no sense, but the pre-season baseball odds never make sense, these numbers will change a great deal.
    What I always find amazing is how accurate the odds makers are in football. If you look at Vegas’s accuracy over the period of an entire NFL season, it’s astounding, almost creepy.

    LocklandSF February 6, 2007, 10:34 am
  • “though if you believe that in the short series of the playoffs all teams are equal”
    I don’t know that that’s a reasonable assumption though. I think the team with the best Top 3 starters is more equal than the others. Matchups play a lot into it, as well. If you’re discussing eight anonymous teams regardless of matchups, then sure, 8-1 odds for each sounds fine. But I would venture at least one or two favorites out of each specific playoff scenario.

    Paul SF February 6, 2007, 10:35 am
  • i agree paul, and i wrote just this going into last season’s playoffs. on the strength of their overall record and lineup and “hotness”, i put the yanks at around a 1-5 or 1-4 shot to win it all (basically, 20 to 25 percent). i would have taken a few percentage points away from the cards and tigers, etc…. but we see how that worked out. anyway, so far ahead of the season, these things are, as you note, basically meaningless, and in this context i think taking the simple, all teams are equal approach makes sense.

    YF February 6, 2007, 10:40 am
  • I don’t have any idea what the odds “should be”. I do know that they set the odds to drive money play, so it’s not meant to be their “prediction” as to who will win. The line is set to get the MOST action. Whatever the line is is not to be interpreted as a bookmaker’s opinion on the quality of the Sox, or the Yanks. It’s a number made up to get the most number of people betting.
    As stated above, it’s remarkable how well the bookmakers do. That’s because they are actuaries, not seers.

    SF February 6, 2007, 11:10 am
  • I keep my cash in Hip City National Bank, where it’s safe and I can always get to it.

    Brad February 6, 2007, 11:14 am
  • …i never bet on anything, mostly because i’m too cheap to lose…it stands to reason that the usual suspects like the sox and yanks are going to be the favorites, just because…but i think we’ve seen [and i’m convinced] that anything can happen…i agree with paul that being able to line up 3 solid starters and playing some good defense seems to be the trick to surviving the playoffs these days…also helps to be on a roll [as in get hot] at the right time…

    dc February 6, 2007, 7:01 pm

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