Early Returns: Gossage In, Rice In Limbo

ESPN’s Keith Law is keeping track of HOF ballots on his personal blog, and has either found from public columns or received via e-mail 63 of them (or roughly 10 percent). He’s calling it for Goose Gossage. Bert Blyleven, Andre Dawson and Jim Rice are all too close to call. Jack Morris and Tim Raines likely must wait another year:

TOTAL 63 Pct
Gossage 57 90%
Blyleven 45 71%
Dawson 43 68%
Rice 43 68%
Morris 29 46%
Raines 28 44%
McGwire 19 30%

If this proves accurate, what would be especially surprising is the big jump for Blyleven — the most deserving of the candidates on the ballot this year — after falling back last year to fewer than half the ballots. 

One also wonders, as a comment on Law’s blog notes, whether those voters without email or newspaper columns might trend away from statistical analysis, potentially favoring borderline guys with great reputations (Rice, Dawson, Morris) while hurting statistical shoo-ins who played for terrible teams (Blyleven, Raines).

My statistical case for Rice — who I readily admit is a borderline candidate, thanks to his quick decline — is here. Another good case is made here.

1 comment… add one
  • Would 30% be a jump or a fall for McGuire?

    AndrewYF December 29, 2007, 2:22 pm

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