For Better or Worse

Dustin Pedroia and the Red Sox are tied together for a long time now — potentially until 2015, if things go as well as they could — with the MVP second baseman's agreeing to a six-year, $40.5 million contract that could grow to seven years and $51.5 million.

The breakdown:

  • Now: $1.5 million
  • 2009: $1.5 million**
  • 2010: $3.5 million*
  • 2011: $5.5 million*
  • 2012: $8 million*
  • 2013: $10 million
  • 2014: $10 million
  • 2015: $11 million ***

* Arbitration year; ** Pre-arbitration year; *** Club option with $500,000 buyout.

Nice deal for the Red Sox. It's hard to imagine a (non-career-ending) scenario in which Pedroia would be worth less than $10 million in six years. Pedroia, meanwhile achieves tremendous security. One of the key priorities of the offseaso has been achieved.

10 comments… add one
  • Anytime you can tie a MVP down, you should, so great deal, no matter the height! ;)

    Lar December 3, 2008, 3:11 pm
  • I can think of another height-challenged second baseman who had a great year at the age of 25 then was out of baseball by the age of 30.
    As good a deal this is for the Sox, it’s an even better deal for Pedroia, who can now just say he won the lottery to folks on the street, because who would believe a short balding guy plays professional baseball?

    AndrewYF December 3, 2008, 4:14 pm
  • I can think of a height-challenged second baseman who had a great 25-year-old season and went on to be the best second baseman of all time.
    Of course, Pedroia was 24 last year, and Marcus Giles didn’t have a good age-24 season. You could go back and forth with examples, but here’s the list of Top 5 OPS+ for second basemen with a listed height 5-10 or smaller in their age 23 and 24 seasons (min. 200 games played):
    Eddie Collins, 157
    Larry Doyle, 141
    Jorge Orta, 128
    Dustin Pedroia, 118
    Joe Gordon, 116
    Collin’s in the HOF with a 25-year career OPS+ of 141, Doyle lasted 14 seasons with a career OPS+ of 126, Orta lasted 16 seasons with an OPS+ of 107 (though he dropped off severely after age 29), Gordon is borderline HOF case and had a shortened career thanks to the war; he lasted 11 seasons with an OPS+ of 120.
    Not bad company, and not very relevant — but more relevant than a random Marcus Giles comparison.

    Paul SF December 3, 2008, 4:44 pm
  • I am torn on young players signing long term deals. I understand why they do it (Longoria, Reyes, Wright, Etc…) but I think barring any injuries they are most definitely cheating themselves out of $. I don’t know what I would do in their case. I have been over this in my head a million times. The thing that I keep coming back to is how much the market will change by years 3, 4 and 5 of their contracts. But I most definitely understand the security aspect of it. This is one of the times I will look at the NFL and say they do things the right way when it comes to players contracts. I understand why there is guaranteed $ in baseball, but if it works in football (a far more violent, short lived sport career wise) then it can work in baseball. Just think we would have had the ability to cut ties with Carl Pavano far sooner than we did.
    All that said the Sox have themselves a steal, nice job Theo.

    John - YF December 3, 2008, 4:56 pm
  • That’s a hell of a deal, even if Dusty plays 10-15% below the last two years, it’s still a steal.

    LocklandSF December 3, 2008, 5:10 pm
  • Paul –
    eh, Giles was born in May, Pedroia in August, making their ‘baseball age’ another year apart when their real age is in fact 3 months apart. Pedroia and Giles both turned 25 in their very awesome seasons.
    For sake of argument, let’s say each comparison is equally irrelevant. But the point is, it’s actually not very hard to think of a scenario where Pedroia is worth less than $10 million five years from now.
    But again, congratulations to Pedroia. He’s certainly earned it.

    AndrewYF December 3, 2008, 5:39 pm
  • I think it is impossible to speculate if Pedroia will be “worth it” at 10M in 6 years, since we don’t know if baseball will befall an economic crisis (perhaps, but speculative), or if salaries will continue to grow (probably, if I had to guess). But if $10M gets you a pretty decent player NOW, I can only imagine (with conservative estimates on salary growth) what $10M might get you in 2014.
    It certainly looks like the next three years are very cheap, in any case. And I am hesitant to concern myself with four years from now. In 2000 I wasn’t wondering what would happen if Nomar fell off a cliff (or hurt his wrist, or started pouting) and had to be traded. I see no reason to start worrying about Pedroia’s salary in a year I myself am closer to age 50 than to 40!

    SF December 3, 2008, 5:58 pm
  • Also, keep in mind that at the end of this deal he’ll be at the peak of his commanding salary (if he is still the impact player at that age) – in the context of things, holding out for an extra, even say, 5 mil a year but taking the risk with health/injury/life happens is silly when this contract alone will be enough for him if he does nothing else for the rest of his life..

    Lar December 4, 2008, 2:04 pm
  • I refuse to call an extra 5 million dollars silly. But I do see your point to a certain extent.

    John - YF December 4, 2008, 3:01 pm
  • when you compare this contract to say the one cano got from the yankees [base 4/30], it accentuates theo’s genius, and perhaps a lack of understanding of the market by ped’s agent…10m a couple of years from now is ok depending on how salaries inflate over that time, but he’s probably underpaid in the first 3 years or so, given the mvp and all…by the way, how come joe morgan didn’t make your list of short 2b-ers with decent careers paul?…career ops+ of 132, he was in a bunch of all star games, won a couple of mvp’s, and even wound up in the hall of fame [as a player, not a broadcaster ;) ]…i know the guy’s not a favorite announcer around here, but as a player, he was darn good at 5’7″, 160 lb…actually 2 inches shorter and 20 lb’s lighter than dusty…

    dc December 5, 2008, 8:26 am

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