Those trade rumors are picking up steam. And it looks like the Sox aren’t going to get “equal value” for the slugger.
DO NOT TRADE MANNY.
That is all.
Ugh. As tantalizing in theory as a package of promising youngsters sounds, I’m not sure I can stomach the thought of going into 2007 without that 3-4 combo. Best in baseball, or so they say…
1. Youkilis – 1B
2. Lugo – SS
3. Drew – RF
4. Ortiz – DH
5. Pena – CF
6. Crisp – LF
7. Varitek – C
8. Lowell – 3B
9. Pedroia – 2B
It’s not a bad lineup. It’s deeper. But the question mark factor increases by a ton.
And it looks like the Sox aren’t going to get “equal value” for the slugger.
This is a statement that, without qualification, doesn’t mean much. Can you give us something more, YF? Do you mean “equal value” as in “equal production”? Because that would make sense. Or do you mean equal value as in “financial equivalency”? Because I don’t know how we know that, though it seems like gaining two or three great minor league prospects who are cost-controlled (and also very tradeable) for six years might fit that bill. Seriously: what do you mean by this?
On that last point, if the Sox trade Manny, and it’s for 2 or 3 minor league upper tier prospects, does anyone really think the Sox won’t be spinning (or making a serious attempt) to then deal prospects (either those included in any supposed Manny deal or from elsewhere in the minors) off for other proven talent (hello, Mark Teixeira)?
And if that doesn’t happen, this is an already deep farm system we are talking about, and stockpiling it with guys earmarked for the majors is hardly a terrible thing, even if it means a lesser 2007 season. Long-term planning isn’t a bad thing. I am not opposed to a Manny trade, unless it looks like the team as composed is a World Series contender or winner. Right now, the holes on the Sox (SS, Closer, Rightfielder, depth at the back of the rotation) don’t add up to that, Manny inclusive.
wow…how do you trade the best hitter in baseball?…i’ve argued with sf’s a few times on this site about whether or not manny dogs it, has a lackadaisical attitude, and is a distraction to his team, and each time i was shouted into submission…someone explain to me how this is a good plan, and how that lineup is better without him in it…sorry sf, i can’t continue to buy the “future” argument…sooner or later the future is now…
Teixeira’s on the market?
I have no idea if he’s on the market.
Re: Future being now
This is easier said than done. Manny shouldn’t be untradeable. If he’s traded, we can assess whether the Sox got fleeced or not once we know who is involved. Right now, none of us knows a darn thing. My position is not that trading Manny is a good thing, but that nobody is off-limits.
To clarify, my DO NOT TRADE MANNY mantra is not based on him being off limits, it’s simply that I do not see any realisttic trade that makes any sense for the Red Sox, not one.
I can think of 1000 trades I would do with Manny, but not one of them is realistic.
Yes, Lar, it’s widely believed that he is.
Trading Manny for prospects and spinning them for Teixiera, Young, what-have-you makes far more sense than adding even more top prospects to the system mainly because prospects have a way of not working out (for every Bagwell and Schilling, there are several more Frankie Rodriguezes and Tony Armas Jrs. and Brien Taylors and Brian Roses and Todd Van Poppells and etc. etc. etc.)
The Sox management would have a hard sell on their hands if the prospects they got were anything less than Brandon Wood caliber and some serious answering to do if Drew goes down with an injury, Lowell slips and 2006 turns out not to be a fluke for Varitek. So I can definitely see a trade, but a two-part deal or a straight 3-way deal makes the most sense to me from the Sox’ perspective.
Olney says “equal talent” and SF is right to make the distinction. But if what Buster writes is true, I think the Sox, moreso than in past years, grew a lot more tired of the Manny drama this season. Of course, this is just speculation, but the much-maligned Gordon Edes article, to me, showed me the extent to which the Sox front office was more and more irked by Manny’s issues off the field. It was a poorly reasoned article and it was pretty unfair to Manny, but it was also written by Edes, a journalist not known for CHB malice. In any case, Olney seems to be indicating that the Sox want (are even anxious) to get Manny out of town. The market’s changed, which is definitely a reason. But, I’m guessing the Sox FO lost its patience with Manny.
Agreed, Nick. The significant thing about the Edes article was that he wrote it, seeming to mean there was enough of a groundswell among his sources to lead him to feel this way. The fact that he didn’t even try to attribute any of the information, however, was pretty crappy and knocks the credibility way down.
It should be noted that while Olney’s reporting chops were vindicated by the Matsuzaka scoop, he has been ridiculously wrong before on this very type of story (trade rumors, particularly at the deadline), and these types of timelines — “I wouldn’t be surprised if (team in question) had a deal done by (arbitrary date)” — are just notoriously, flagrantly silly. I can’t even remember one that has turned out to be true.
As Nick pointed out, J.D. Drew has been “on the verge of,” “about to,” “on the cusp of,” “set to,” and “likely to” sign for more than two weeks now.
SF: The article contends that the Sox’ price for Manny is dropping, and that they will be willing to accept cents on the proverbial dollar in a deal, just as, say, the Phillies did not receive “equal value” for Abreu/Lidle. I’m just repeating what the ESPN article states.
I was clarifying that “equal value” can mean more than one thing, YF. Particularly with a player like Manny.
Teixeira would be a great addition.. even though he’ll get very expensive very soon.
I have no idea what happened to his numbers last year though..
I do hope the Yanks somehow pluck him, of course, if only for the gold glove.
Is Drew waiting on Matsuzaka?
Let’s not let the Sox spin the “equal value” thing too far. Yeah, obviously they get “equal value” in a deal, or it’s not a deal they make. Clearly, they see the pros equaling or surpassing the cons in whatever scenario they agree to. But if Olney is correct, they’re not going to get anything close to Manny’s value in terms of actual production on the field in the forseeable term–prospects are nice, but they are just that: prospects. The Yanks got a good return on Sheff—damaged goods compared to Manny, and a player without a position—but even YFs wouldn’t say it was “equal value.”
they’re not going to get anything close to Manny’s value in terms of actual production on the field in the forseeable term
In a first deal, no way. That’s true. But I am speculating that there will be a second deal, if there is a first deal. I just don’t know when, unfortunately…
… they will be willing to accept cents on the proverbial dollar in a deal, just as, say, the Phillies did not receive “equal value” for Abreu/Lidle
The story does not actually say this, YF. It sounds like wishful thinking on your part to me.
Paul: It says this:
“Executives with other teams say that in order to move Ramirez, Boston will have to come to grips with the idea that they will not get back major league talent equal to that of Ramirez; rather, they might have to settle for a deal much like the Gary Sheffield trade the Yankees made early in November….”
If you think a deal that nets Scott Linebrink and a couple of minor leaguers is equal value…..
Anyway, this is all bs speculation. When and if a deal happens, we can evaluate it. Apologies for this rumor-mongering thread…..My bad!
Executives with other teams say that in order to move Ramirez, Boston will have to come to grips with the idea that they will not get back major league talent equal to that of Ramirez
That is either negotiation through the press or a fed line. Where’s the critical skepticism, YF?
OK, I see the critical skepticism above…my bad.
I have a question: if Papi walks 200 times (as the scout in the article speculates), wouldn’t this (theoretically) translate very well for the Red Sox?
You’d assume so. Wouldn’t that translate into a Bondsian OBP?
Well, what if the Sox traded Manny to say the Dodgers (or someone else), who are looking for a slugger, and who could whip up a batch of nice, highly rated prospects, no problem, and then fashioned a package of prospects themselves to send to…oh say, Atlanta for Andruw Jones (Atlanta loves young cheap talent) or maybe to Toronto for Vernon Wells, who are both free agents in 2007.
It’s widely thought that Jones and Wells won’t be resigning with their respective clubs, who might be willing to deal them now, to get something in return for them besides draft picks.
Now Boston would have an ass kicking center fielder to hit behind Ortiz, they can move Crisp to left where he’s better suited, and the big hole created by moving Manny is pretty nicely filled.
BTW, I hope like hell this doesn’t happen. Anyway, just a thought.
WE – It’s long been rumored here and elsewhere that both Wells and Jones are probably on the block this winter meetings session, so I don’t think you’re too far off base.
The Red Sox are smart, and they know they can’t give Ramirez away without a plan bigger than “prospects” for this year. They’d be torn to shreds here and everywhere, so I don’t think you are too far off base with your assumptions.
For the record, I hope like hell that does, in fact, happen. It would solve every problem they have right now minus pitching, so if the trade team throws in a decent bullpen guy or two, it’s really worth the look.
As a baseball fan for many years (Yankees of course) I’ve always relished the hot stove season, speculating on what moves the Yanks would make, and then imagining how any new players they would get would fit in and how they would perform. I’ve had my share of disappointments, believe me.
Keeping this in mind, this certainly has to be a fascinating offseason for Sox fans.
Let’s see. DMat of course. Drew, soon to come, probably. Lugo, a good possibility. Will they trade Manny, and who might they get as a result of that? Paps as a starter, who will they get to close? Gagne? What else might they do?
Anyway, if I were you, I would be enjoying this immensely.
WE – I’m either going to be really happy or eating crow. Either way, it’s happened before.
That being said, if the Sox can manage to sign Drew, Matsuzuka, Lugo (or equivalent), and a decent backup catcher (the hardest in my opinion), it will be a success even if they have to hold onto Manny.
Wow, I just read that and realized how stupid it sounds. By holding onto Manny, I mean not spinning him for an adequate replacement in the outfield and protection for Ortiz and pitching.
That is the only way I can justify trading Ramirez. Prospects will not fill the spot, no matter how talented. We can all say whatever we want about him, but he’s probably the greatest pure hitter we’ve seen in a quarter century, so putting together a deal that doesn’t bring back another formidable player or two isn’t worth the loss.
All that being said, I really think the Red Sox are tired of the schtick and tired of defending Ramirez’s tirades every year. No way they keep him in the AL though.
i suspect if a deal were made for Andruw Jones Atlanta would still want Crisp as part of the package
I’ll live with an outfield of Pena, Jones, and Drew if I have to. Lugo leads off, Youk moves him to second at a pretty darn good clip – then Ortiz, Jones, Drew, Pena, Varitek, Lowell, and Pedroia.
That’s not exactly a terrible lineup to have. As a pitcher, you should be happy that you have such good defense and good offensive potential behind you every start. Crisp and prospects for Jones is a darn good deal. You’ll understand later in the year.
Oh, hurry up and sign your contract dammit – it’s making us all crazy. Also, you hate NY, and their shortstop dives over the plate A LOT, so don’t worry about his elbow. However, he does smell great.
I love this game. heheeh.
Why don’t you just chill for another year with the Lions and then the Yanks will be happy to sign you in early 2008, or whenever it is that your free.
By all means, go back to Japan. Be sure to tell the Lions that you gave it your best shot, but those selfish Red Sox were only willing to part with so much, and now they must give back the 51.1 million reasons they aren’t in financial trouble anymore.
Also, since you already had to fight through the stigma of being a “rock star” and “selfish” earlier in your career, I’m sure this will do you well with your fans and the Japanese media.
Save face, man. Do what’s best for you. Look out for number one, because after all, isn’t that the mantra in Japan – “there is no team in I”? It’s okay to go home empty handed. Good luck.
“…the Red Sox are tired of the schtick and tired of defending Ramirez’s tirades every year…”…brad, i can’t remember if you’re one of the sf’s who beat me up in the recent past for suggesting that manny had some idiosyncrasies that perhaps interfered with his effort [i was lectured roundly on his work ethic], but if so, you owe me an apology…i understand defending your player, but a little honesty in the debate would be refreshing…again, if you’re not guilty, excuse me, but this is a perfect opportunity to blast your colleagues who are in favor of trading him for this reason, but gave me a hard time when i questioned his ability to focus…by the way, why would another team be interested in acquiring the “schtick” and “tirades”?…if your answer is “talent”, then why wouldn’t the sox just keep him?…he’s not a negative personality like sheffield was…and, i’m not sure i buy the whole, manny demanding a trade stuff….the new sox ownership and mgmt have been trying to dump him since day 1…he’s not stupid, he knows he wasn’t wanted…do you really expect another team to put up with something that the sox are tired of?…don’t expect much value in return if that’s the case…
I’d say that the Padres or the Dodgers have the most interesting stuff to offer (if the article’s speculations are true). I don’t know much about who else the padres have as young talent (prospect level) but, if the Dodgers were willing to give up that first baseman and Broxton, along with taking the Clement nightmare, Sox fans might find themselves very happy two years from now.
There’s no way you can replace the hitting Manny brings to a team. He’s easily one of the best 3 right handed hitters in baseball over the past 25 years (and yes, I am including Steve Balboni in those 25 years).
However, who knows if this knee thing will continue to be a problem, if Manny’s apparent lack of off season preparation is finally going to catch up with him as he gets older…
HA. A sportscenter teaser just said, and I quote:
“Manny out of Boston by the weekend!, stick around for sportscenter after the game”
they make me laugh.
clement?…it gets more bizarre…
Crisp plus Manny prospects for Jones? Put Pena in left with Drew in right? Yeah, that would rock.
Nothing wrong wth speculation, YF. I just think it’s a stretch to go from “the Sox won’t get equal production in return for Ramirez” (duh) to say “the Sox will make a move like the Phillies made with Abreu/Lidle.” That would mean the Sox trade Manny for low-level, low-ceiling prospects solely to be out from under his salary. That simply ain’t gonna happen, though I don’t doubt every yf hopes it does, and rightfully so. That would cripple the Red Sox’ chances this year and certainly cripple them in years to come with respect to what higher-level prospects and/or talent either could have brought by themselves or as part of other trades.
You’re absolutely right, WE. Last year, the Beckett and Loretta trades were the big moves and I was excited by both. It just seems this year, the number of moves, the potential talent involved — and the risk — is greater. To be involved heavily in names like Matsuzaka, Drew, Lugo and Gagne (what is it with the Dodger-Red Sox connection?) in the same offseason is indeed thrilling, if not a little scary.
someone will be willing to take that contract when Manny is involved. Especially the Dodgers.
…paul, i can’t believe it…you think dm and drew [i don’t think you have lugo and gagne yet] are more promising than you thought beckett and crisp were going to be?…i didn’t think anything could top that hype…how long before you think they’ll start walking on water?…
dc, I think we’ve addressed hype before. I’m pretty sure that line of arguments got no one anywhere. It’s taking what Paul has said to the extreme(which he did not). “the potential talent involved — and the risk — is greater.” Where’s the “hype” in that?
With Angels out of the picture (and no cubs or tigers or astros) the value the sox can get in return is lowered, if they are set on trading manny. The market seems weakened. The other major players for him prospects pools do not seem that deep. If they can get 2 players from the dogers Kemp and Billingsley, that would be a steal for the Sox. Limebrink, not so much. Why are there no Manny for Milledge and Heillman rumors…
quo, i was just kidding with my buddy paul…but you do have to admit that there was a significant amount of hype surrounding the beckett and crisp acquisitions…therefore, “…if the potential talent involved — and the risk — is greater.” with dm and drew, then my point about the resultant hype is valid…
…and my use of the pronoun “you” is not personal toward paul, it’s my [lazy] substitution for saying “the sox organization, ownership, management, players, fans, vendors, blah, blah, blah” every time i post…ok?
I’m glad that one bad season hasn’t stopped SFs from drinking the Theo Kool Aid. Good for you guys. Watch your FO trade possibly the best hitter in your history and applaud because they’re so smart that they’ll make it work.
Trading your best player is rarely a good idea. A Jones and Wells are good players, yes, but they are nowhere near as good as Manny. I think you are underestimating the size of the hole in your lineup that trading him would create. Good luck, though. I, for one, will be very happy to see him leave Beantown.
Who’s applauding, Sam? I don’t think anyone except the writers and perhaps the organization are itching to get Manny out of Boston. If it’s bound to happen, however, it seems unlikely that it doesn’t ultimately bring someone the caliber of Jones. I think that’s all that’s being said here.
As far as Crisp and Beckett, while they were disappointments last year for different reasons, it’s not like they can no longer contribute. The things that made them promising last off-season are still promising this off-season, for reasons we’ve already discussed. Considering the likelihood of acquiring Matsuzaka and Drew, the return of a healthy Crisp, a full season of Pena and hopefully a smarter Beckett, that’s a lot of talent not fully realized or not here at all in 2006.
Of course, they could all tank, and that would suck. But the chances are better that they all at least perform reasonably well, which would be a vast improvement over last year.
Fair enough, Paul. But I still would expect a bit more *outrage* at the thought of the move. I guess I thought you were all taking the news a bit too well.
I agree with you about Beckett and Crisp. I doubt that Beckett will be an ace in the AL East, but he’ll still be a middle of the rotation guy and, given the money going around baseball right now, he was signed to a sensible contract.
What about the catcher position, however? Is there anything to suggest that Tek’s 2006 was a one-off as opposed to due to getting old? (And count me as on YF who’s trembling at the thought of Jorge’s falling off a cliff in similar fashion either this season or the next…)
Is there anything to suggest that Tek’s 2006 was a one-off as opposed to due to getting old?
Is there any reason not to? Declines don’t exactly mean complete lack thereof. People don’t just wake up one morning and realize that they can’t do what they did yesterday. Tek may not come back to 2003 this year, but I’d bet dollars to donuts that he’s not the 2006 version either.
Remember 2005? We all pretty much wrote off Posada and Pudge too. I think catchers who get into their thirties have down time is all, and it’s much harder to break out of it, but it can (and in the case of Posada) does happen.
Sam, I think a lot of the lack of outrage is fueled by the fact that we’ve been through this song and dance every year. Even if the Sox sign Drew, I would still out the odds of Manny’s returning in 2007 at better than 50/50. I remember being really fearful in 2004 and 2005, but after three straight failed attempts, it jsut seems silly to work yourself up over something that even now likely won’t happen.
Take a gander over at waswatching and see how Manny has absolutely destroyed NY since 2001. I would be absotively overjoyed should Boston move him out of the East.
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