Nick’s Bold Attempt At Statistical Analysis

By now, you’ve probably figured out that I’m not super savvy with the stats. I try not to dabble in statistics because, well, a lot of other people, including Paul , the guys and gals at Baseball Prospectus, the people at The House of Dewey, understand them much better. So, I post this with the caveat that my conclusions are to be scoffed at. Buster Olney, a much better writer than me, did something similar a few years back when he fell in love with the productive out stat. The statheads had a field day tearing him to shreds. But I don’t know, I thought it was cool of him to give it a shot.

With that out of the way, I wonder about the significance of team winning streaks. That’s the stat I’ve been thinking about all day, and specifically, I’m wondering what it says about my beloved Bombers that they’ve failed to win more than 5 games in a row during any stretch this year. Really, what does it mean? Considering the Yanks of the last 10 years, this is a very low number. In 1998, the Yanks had a 10 game streak; in 1999, a 7 game streak; in 2000, an 8 game streak; last year we had a ten game streak. Here’s my interpretation: The drop-off between the top 3 starters and the back-end of the rotation has made it very difficult for the Yanks to string together long winning streaks. You get half a year of Shawn Chacon and the 5 inning wonder that is Jaret Wright and your chances on those days  are pretty awful. Or is there something about the feast or famine quality of the Yanks offense? It seems they’ve put up a lot of huge numbers in individual games, only to follow up with an anemic 1-run performance. So, it’s not really an analysis I’m giving, but I’m wondering if anyone thinks this stat is significant and portends bad things for the post-season. Anyone?

2 comments… add one

  • Haha, Nick, I think you overestimate my analytical abilities. If a stat involves more than counting and the basic four math functions, I’m lost.
    The guys at BP and Beyond the Box Score start using logorythms and I start shaking and foaming at the mouth…

    Paul SF August 28, 2006, 4:31 pm
  • I’m not as concerned about the lack of extended win streaks. I would be concerned if there were prolonged losing streaks or a lack of win/loss consistency.
    New York 2006 has lost four consecutive games twice, three consecutive games three times. The Yankees worst short stretch this season was from June 8th-June 19th, where the team went 3-8.
    Monthly splits:
    Mon | 1998 | 2000 | 2006
    Apr | 17-06 | 15-08 | 13-10
    May | 20-07 | 13-13 | 18-10
    Jun | 19-07 | 10-15 | 14-12
    Jul | 20-07 | 18-08 | 16-09
    Aug | 22-10 | 18-12 | 18-12 *
    Sep | 16-11 | 13-17 | 17-12 *
    TOT | 114-48 | 87-74 | 97-65 *
    *1: August is currently 16-11 with 3 games left; last three monthlys are projections based solely on current win%, no other factors considered.
    What do I think? I think it is a good sign that the various iterations of the club that have been fielded this year finished above .500 every month of the season and never really got into a losing streak that they were not able to shake off.

    attackgerbil August 28, 2006, 5:38 pm

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