Not Ovah?!

Jon Heyman tweeting that a deal for Gonzalez is now done, press conference tomorrow. If true, I wonder if AG is going to send a cut of the extra dollars he just made to Jayson Werth and his agent?

I revise my earlier prediction of a gross 7/147M to 7/154M, adding a million a year just for the delay and asking. Very curious to know the details. If there is a contract deal, that is. Add predictions in the comments.

Paul-SF edit: Heyman tweets the deal is a seven-year extension, beginning in 2012, worth roughly $23 million per year, or $161 million total, in addition to the $6.3 million left on Gonzalez's current contract.

If the deal is signed before Opening Day, it would bring the life of the contract, for luxury tax purposes, to eight years, $167.3 million, or $20.9 million charged against the luxury tax in 2011. So it's pretty easy to see why the Sox would want to hold of an official deal until after Opening Day.

FWIW, Gonzalez would be 36 in his final season of the deal.

30 comments… add one

  • According to Heyman now:
    Appears #redsox will add about 7 yrs at about $23 mil per to a gon’s $6 mil ’11 salary. But no extension will be announced yet.
    So that would be 7/161 if he’s right. Wowzers.

    sam-YF December 5, 2010, 8:23 pm
  • Early this afternoon I predicted that extension years would be for $23.5M per year, so could it be that I nailed that?! Would be cool!
    On the other hand, I got the years wrong and the total value wrong, but so what!

    SF December 5, 2010, 8:29 pm
  • Just got done from putting the girls to bed, logged onto MLBTR, and did the “sleeping children fist-pump.”
    I can’t say this really surprises me though (although based on past Sox dealings — ARod, Teixeira — I was definitely preparing for massive disappointment). When everyone says, “The deal has fallen apart,” but no one can be found from the Red Sox’ camp to confirm it, and the player’s agent is too busy to say anything but, “We’re still working on it,” it seemed the whole 2 p.m. deadline was overblown.
    I suspect it’s going to be exactly what was surmised earlier: They did a handshake agreement this evening, and they’ll put pen to paper on April 5 so the Sox can do another big splash this offseason and stay under the cap (assuming there are any big splashes left to be made that are at least only slightly insane. That Werth deal would seem to rule out any chance of acquiring Crawford for anything less than a major overpay.)

    Paul SF December 5, 2010, 8:29 pm
  • If they Yankees want both Crawford and Lee they are going to have to commit another $300M in payroll, perhaps. Wow.

    SF December 5, 2010, 8:30 pm
  • As an aside to this, the fact that a team can just wait to put pen to paper to avoid paying luxury tax fees is absurd. MLB should close this loophole during the next CBA. This isnt said as a criticism of the Sox as they are, of course, operating within the rules. If I were an A’s fan I wouldnt be pleased that its that easy to get around the ‘cap’.

    sam-YF December 5, 2010, 8:38 pm
  • I think the rule, in this case, is dumb in that it would penalize a team for signing a contract one year before the contract goes into place. But certainly it’s dumb for the reasons Sam states, as well. In either case, it needs to go. Just take the AAV of the contract for the years the contract covers and apply them to the LT in those years, regardless of when the contract is officially signed.

    Paul SF December 5, 2010, 8:45 pm
  • If the 7/161 extension is right, then that feels just about spot-on with respect to what Teixeira got. A little discount for not being on the open market, perhaps something for being a year older, and perhaps something for his shoulder. So 8/180 (and draft picks) is, two years later, 8/167 and minor league talent.

    SF December 5, 2010, 8:51 pm
  • Absolutely giddy that the deal ended up getting done. 3 months til Spring Training.

    Atheose - SF December 5, 2010, 10:18 pm
  • “…If they Yankees want both Crawford and Lee they are going to have to commit another $300M in payroll, perhaps. Wow….”
    nice, subtle…but bs on the heels of the sox signing agon…clever attempt to deflect…
    “…the deal is a seven-year extension, beginning in 2012, worth roughly $23 million per year, or $161 million total, in addition to the $6.3 million left on Gonzalez’s current contract….”
    now that’s a wow…i think krueg said it best awhile ago…i never want to hear another sox fan whine about the small market little engine that could trying to keep up with the evil empire…like i said earlier though guys, congrats…you’re a better team now, and maybe this will bring you all back into the discussion which really died on the vine the last half of this past season…if you can avoid the injury bug that bit the team last year, it should be very interesting…

    dc December 6, 2010, 1:41 am
  • aw, dc, come on. The Werth contract makes Crawford crazy-expensive (if he wasn’t already), and the observation that a tandem signing of CC and CL might cost the Yanks $300M plus wasn’t a dig, but rather just sort of shock. Not everything is meant negatively.
    As for the question of whether the Sox are a small market team, the are not, and at this site above all I don’t think you hear this claim. But there are shades of gray. There is context. When the Sox finally make the move to get AG it is in the context of a deep farm system, of a $6M salary this year, of Mike Lowell, Victor Martinez, and Adrian Beltre coming off the books, of David Ortiz coming off the books next year, etc. In other words, the spending of $161M+ is not done in a vacuum. They are a rare club that can afford that contract, yes, but they didn’t do it willy-nilly.
    Ferrari makes very expensive cars. Nobody would argue that a Ferrari isn’t a luxury item. But there are $150K Ferraris and $400K Ferraris. And some people buy one of each, some buy two of each. We root for a rich club. You root for a richer one. So it goes. A while ago I was a bit more petulant, I felt that the riches cheapened wins – there are surely a lot of Sox fans (and fans of other clubs) who still feel that. As I have gotten older I have become more interested in the dynamic of the teams’ wealth, how they use it, how they deploy money, how they strategize. I don’t resent the wealth at this point, though I certainly used to. That probably comes out of a realization that yes, the Sox are wealthy, but also from a little growing up as a fan.
    Anyhow, take that for what it’s worth.

    SF December 6, 2010, 7:04 am
  • fair enough my friend…i am glad that you guys are back in the discussion here…makes it more fun than when we had just the handful of us that seemed to be talking to ourselves for the second half of the season, sometimes going for what seemed like a week at a time without a post…i’m also glad you’ve improved your club…makes beating you that much more satisfying ;) hehe…i also think my frustration is partly based on the need for the yankees to sign another starter due to the very expensive bust that burnout turned out to be…you referred to it as a luxury, but with the uncertainty of burnout’s effectiveness in ’11 and not knowing yet if pettitte will sign, it makes it more of a need, but true, a very expensive one…this is a weak free agent year, so you could say lee is the yankees only option to pick up another starter, unless they pursue a trade…i think the next highest rated pitcher in the free agent pool after lee is carl pavano… oy ;)
    i do agree with you that signing crawford is a luxury unless the yanks miss out on lee and intend to use one of the other outfielders to trade for a pitcher…i don’t think either of our teams does anything in a vacuum, but i do agree that the yanks are much less budget conscious, despite their attempts to say they are…
    “…Anyhow, take that for what it’s worth….”
    your opinion is worth a lot, to me anyway, sf…we may not always agree, and sometimes we may both hit one foul, but i look forward to hearing your take on things…don’t take anything i say personally…i’m trying to have more fun here, and while i can’t contribute at the level of some of you who really study the game, i appreciate the opportunity this gives me to chime in with my .02

    dc December 6, 2010, 8:42 am
  • What dc said x2. I’m happy that you’re back and posting as well, sf.
    The only concern I have with this deal is the way it’s going down. I think that the Red Sox are essentially cheating the system on this one. They clearly got a sweetheart deal for A-Gon, then they compound the issue by skirting his extension.
    Apparently, and I’m paraphrasing here to what I heard on the radio this morning, the Red Sox have given AGon a contract with their signature, and he has given the same one with his, thus both sides are protected, and the agreement is to wait till the second game of the season for each side to fill in the other half of the contract. Each side is guaranteed what they want, and neither side can back out without the other. Apparently, this happens alot to avoid payroll issues?
    Either way, I hate the huge contract, and while he’s a great player, and I’m happy he’s coming to Boston, I think these huge contracts are the downfall of baseball, but that’s not an arguement for this thread.
    Kudos to the Red Sox playing by the rules and skirting the taxes, but it’s definitely not fair.
    What I think is the main issue here is that the Red Sox feel the need to add a 23M/year player in order to win, and the same can be said for NYY. Why is Lee such a need? For teams that continually bounce around 200M a year, it’s hard for me to justify the outrage over a decent player going somewhere else, and shit just continues to roll downhill..
    Does anyone think that the Werth contract is a good one? That’s insane on a few fronts: one, he’s not ever going to get a pitch to hit in that linuep, thus his numbers are going to drop. Two, that type of contract will hamper the other needs that Washington has, but they felt that with Boston looming on that deal, they HAD to make a deal that absurd to lure him to dc. I just feel there is something wrong with that, but I know I’m alone.
    Either way, I’m happy to have AGon, I just wish they didn’t have to give that amount of years and money for a darn baseball player.

    Brad December 6, 2010, 9:51 am
  • Does anyone think that this will cause Tiex to opt out of his contract next winter to hit the market with Fielder and King Albert?

    Brad December 6, 2010, 9:54 am
  • I guess when you factor in that AGon’s contract won’t kick in until next year, in line with Drew, Ortiz, and Papelbon coming off the books (among others), it doesn’t seem as bad.
    I heard an interesting take on things this morning on XM: what are the odds now that the A’s have backed out of their offer to Beltre, the Red Sox ask Beltre to switch to SS? Does anyone think he can’t play the position? I mean, he’s a darn whiz with the glove, and has amazing range, so what would hamper him from moving to his left?

    Brad December 6, 2010, 9:58 am
  • “now that’s a wow…i think krueg said it best awhile ago…i never want to hear another sox fan whine about the small market little engine that could trying to keep up with the evil empire…”
    They still will dc…often. ;)As if raping small market teams with trades is somehow “less evil” than signing free agents in the offseason? Gotta love it!
    Great move for the Sox though. Although, they still have the 2nd best 1st baseman in the AL East! :)
    Talk about some major debates…this one is going to be ongoing for years.

    krueg December 6, 2010, 10:39 am
  • Great move for the Sox though. Although, they still have the 2nd best 1st baseman in the AL East! :)
    You wish.

    Brad December 6, 2010, 10:40 am
  • I think it’s going to be a debate for sure, and I still think Tex has the defensive edge (not to mention switch hitter).
    I think the numbers are going to be absolutely gross to compare.
    What is A-Gon going to do when he actually sees pitches to hit? One thing paul didn’t take into account is the linup thing…AGon has been raking on bad pitches for years now, with little to no protection in a lineup where he’s easily walked instead of pitched to.
    With Ortiz and guys around him, he’s sure to see more fastballs, which is going to result in huge numbers, IMO.

    Brad December 6, 2010, 10:43 am
  • Little more pressure for ADRIAAANNNNNNNNNN in BAH-sten then in San Diego… ;)

    krueg December 6, 2010, 10:43 am
  • Teixeira opting out, now that is a GREAT question, one I hadn’t thought of. If this market stays hot and he continues to perform, who’s to say he couldn’t squeeze a couple of more years out of the Yankees at a healthier number than he would ever get at age 36 as a free agent, or maybe even another six or seven year deal out of Angelos. Really good question.
    And the Beltre-at-short thing is also pretty damned interesting, though I don’t imagine the Sox want to block Iglesias. Now if they could get Beltre on a two year deal, eat part of Marco’s money, would it be worth the experiment?
    (never gonna happen!).

    SF December 6, 2010, 10:46 am
  • I agree. A lot more pressure.

    Brad December 6, 2010, 10:47 am
  • I do think that Tex opts out. His market is going to explode when Fielder and Pujous hit it.
    He will lose some leverage to Fielder, as the Yankees could easily say “we’re going to go with Fielder if you want to opt out” and since Boston already has AGon, Tex would be left without a real suitor for the same money.
    But, if Fielder and Pujous are locked up early for big money, and NY doesn’t have an option at first (comparable), Tex can hold them up for another two years at the same money and be the last contract he has.

    Brad December 6, 2010, 10:50 am
  • It’s why I hate the opt out, and I’m glad (to date) Boston doesn’t use them as an extra lure to come play for them. The 180M should be enough without an opt-out clause, unless of course it goes both ways, which it never will.
    Tex and CC can both be FA if they wish, which is absolutely rediculous when you factor in everything NY has done monetarily for each of them. It’s not fair to anyone involved.

    Brad December 6, 2010, 10:52 am
  • It’s not fair to anyone involved.
    Sure it is. It’s totally fair. Both parties entered into agreement eyes wide open, knowing the risk. It is actually the definition of fair. I totally disagree with you, Brad, on this.
    If a team doesn’t want to risk losing the player then don’t offer it to a player, and don’t agree to an opt-out clause if demanded.

    SF December 6, 2010, 11:14 am
  • Oh, and thanks for the kind words. It’s been a tough six months for posting – life intrudes sometimes. It’s been fun these past couple of days, especially with Paul back. We’ll see how consistent I can stay present at the site, but surely some more hot stove craziness can’t hurt!!

    SF December 6, 2010, 11:16 am
  • As far as I can remember (and according to Cot’s contracts), Tex doesnt have an opt-out clause to exercise in his contract, only CC was given one 2 years ago. The Yankees, like the sox and all teams, try to avoid giving these whenever possible. I think CC was given one due to his “unease” with New York at the time of the signing.
    My stance at the time on the CC opt-out was that I was ok with it because if he used it, it meant that a) he had pitched great for 3 years as a yankee and b) it would provide more flexibility to the Yankees decision making at the time providing them with the option of pursuing a younger ace if available.

    sam-YF December 6, 2010, 11:25 am
  • If my staying away for eight months is what it takes for the Red Sox to acquire a major impact player, you can count on me taking 2011 off, too! :-)
    Thanks, also, to everyone who welcomed me back. It’s been a lot of fun to get back into the groove…

    Paul SF December 6, 2010, 11:30 am
  • Sam, you’re right.
    Discussion over. I don’t know why I thought otherwise. FWIW, CC isn’t going anywhere. Nobody is going to give him more than he has now, and the only way he leaves is if he just wants to go and is willing to take 80% of what he makes now.

    Brad December 6, 2010, 11:36 am
  • ” FWIW, CC isn’t going anywhere.”
    Agreed.

    sam-YF December 6, 2010, 11:51 am
  • “…Nobody is going to give him more than he has now, and the only way he leaves is if he just wants to go and is willing to take 80% of what he makes now….”
    how funny would it be if he opts out and the yankees offer him less?…gotcha…i mean didn’t the yankees offer him way more than anyone else seemed willing to back when he signed the contract?…or they could say, you got a contract, take it or leave it…we’re not redoing it…then again, they might not be as willing to play hardball with cc than they were jeter…pay for performance, what a novel idea…

    dc December 6, 2010, 1:02 pm
  • haha.

    Brad December 6, 2010, 1:49 pm

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