Offensive? Not Really

In the post below, Paul SF makes a comprehensive examination of the Sox offense, which has often frustrated him this season. Appropriately, the subject of offense, and when frustration is warranted, sprung to my own mind last night, while watching the Yanks leave the bases loaded three times in the last four innings of their win against the Royals. Robinson Cano was punched out on a horrible call in one inning (he should have had an rbi walk). Bobby Abreu struck out after a tremendous, 10-pitch at bat in another, and Jorge was robbed of a bases-clearing extra-base hit by a spectacular running grab in center courtesy of David DeJesus. Were the Yanks “to blame”? All three batters performed well. Sometimes the breaks just don’t run your way. That’s what happens over the course of a season. A team may average 6 runs a game. But that means 3 one day and 9 the next. Actually, it’s a testament to their solid play that 12 men were there to be stranded on base in the first place. The Yanks have scored 827 runs this year, tops in the Majors. The Sox are at 758, 4th in the Majors and third in the AL. Yeah, there’s always room for improvement. But it’s also nice to appreciate what you’ve got. Winning doesn’t hurt.

Meanwhile, the big story from last night’s game was Joba Chamberlain putting up another 2 scoreless in front of his teary-eyed father Harlan, of whom he’s a dead ringer. Harlan, as everyone in the universe now knows, is a polio victim and he watched to game in a public disabled section from a motorized scooter. It seemed like there were a lot of Yankee fans coming by to offer him congratulations, which was really nice. Also, Ian Kennedy was servicable through 5 and Alex hit another homer. So what else is new?

7 comments… add one
  • >>>But that means 3 one day and 9 the next.
    This wide spread is especially true of the Yankees. (In their case, I’d make the spread more like 2 one day and 10 the next.)
    Other teams may average less, but have a narrower median spread. A team which scores 5.5 on average, instead of six, but can reliably be counted upon to score between 4 and 7 runs, might do better than one which veers between droughts to blowouts.
    Anyone know where to find stats on the *median* number of runs each team scores, as opposed to the average?

    Hudson September 8, 2007, 10:29 am
  • (Note that the same would also be interesting to note for pitching… If you have an two aces with exceptionally low ERAs/WHIPs, but the rest of the staff stinks, that will only get you so far if the rest of the staff stinks; and the team averages won’t really do much to predict wins and losses.

    Hudson September 8, 2007, 10:31 am
  • hudson, i see where you’re going with this and see the value in looking at these numbers in a different, potentially more telling way.
    instead of the median number (the value in the middle, if all values were laid out in order), couldn’t the mode (the value that appears most often) be a better measure?
    maybe not. just a thought. i’m no mathematical or statistical whiz by any means.

    Yankee Fan In Boston September 8, 2007, 10:50 am
  • I think that the media and aren’t isn’t the right things to look at either. I think looking at the mean and the standard deviation would give you the most useful information. With this information, we can compare teams to see if having a lower median, but also a lower standard deviation (and therefore higher consistency), does better than a team with a higher mean, but higher standard deviation. If I have time later today I will see what I can find. Does anyone know where I can get data of teams scores for each game this season?

    Max September 8, 2007, 11:17 am
  • I think y’all might be over-mathing it, but feel free to see what you can find. baseball reference (see links at right) has all the stats you’l need.

    YF September 8, 2007, 11:26 am
  • As a casual observer of your Yanks, you may want to also collect stats on how they perform against quality pitchers, as it has been my impression this year that they can be shut down quite easily, especially by lefties.
    If correct, would that be because their lineup is too leftie dominated, built too specifically for Yank Stadium?
    Abreu (L) -.226 OPS against lefties
    Melky (S) -.134 OPS against lefties
    Damon (L) -.70 OPS against lefties
    Matsui (L) -.091 OPS against lefties
    Posada (S) -.011 OPS against lefties
    Cano (L) +.024 OPS against lefties
    Arod (R) -129 OPS against lefties

    BostonRAW September 8, 2007, 12:21 pm
  • YF in Boston, you’re probably right that the mode would be more telling than the median.
    My basic argument, put in simpler terms:
    A team that scores 6 runs every games is likely to win more games than one that averages 6 runs per game.
    Likewise, a team whose pitching allows exactly 4 runs every game should win more games than one with an average team ERA of 4.00…
    And a team that could do both would never lose!
    Am I off-base here?

    Hudson September 8, 2007, 1:16 pm

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