Optimism …

I think it’s over for Big Papi. Ever since his jersey was dug up from the concrete at El Nuevo Estadio de los Yankees, he just hasn’t been the same.
Youkilis taking walks doesn’t mean a whole lot when there’s only JD Drew there to drive him home.

Is he going to be on a short leash you think? I mean, if he starts out really cold will they pull him? I have to think this is his last year in Beantown regardless?

If Ortiz is the first-two-months guy for the first two months again, I think the Sox will do what it takes to acquire a hitter, so it might be a moot point; I don’t think he’ll be given the opportunity to hit so poorly for so long again.
I was probably hyperbolic in saying that Ortiz holds the keys to the Sox’ season, given that the Sox are good enough that no single player’s lack of production is going to doom them — they got zero production last year from shortstop, catcher, their No. 3 starter and their DH/third baseman (DH for the first two months, 3B for the next four) last year… and won 95 games.
when you take that big bopper out of the middle,
The Red Sox in 2009 finished second in slugging. Kevin Youkilis had a higher slugging percentage than Miguel Cabrera, Tony Pena, Jason Bay and Alex Rodriguez. He finished with the second-highest OPS in the AL. So the Sox have the big bopper.
Losing Bay means they won’t have that formidable 1-2 punch (unless Ortiz rebounds), but they will be much deeper. We seem to forget that the Red Sox’ most used lineup last season featured Mike Lowell, Jason Varitek and Nick Green at the end. The second-most-used, which occurred post-Victor, still had Varitek and Gonzalez because Lowell was out. The third-most-used had Casey Kotchman and Gonzalez at the end, and the fourth-most-used was Varitek-Kotsay-Green.
The Sox are replacing Varitek with Martinez (who outslugged Tek by 117 points in a Boston uniform, Green/Gonzalez with Scutaro, whose career slugging is 30 points higher than what Sox shortstops provided last season, and Kotsay/Kotchman/Lowell with Beltre, whose slugging while playing half his games in a pitcher’s park has been on par with Lowell’s, who was playing half the time in a hitter’s park.
Replacing Varitek with Martinez really can’t be understated. If we’re talking slugging only — the “big bopper” argument — the Sox’ month-by-month ranking in the AL in slugging went from fourth-sixth-fourth (tie)-eighth to second-second. Some of that came from replacing Green with Gonzalez (who is now being replaced by an even better offensive shortstop), and some came from Ortiz’s continuing revival (which started in June), but the most significant change between July and August was the inclusion of Victor Martinez in the lineup. Having Martinez for a full season over Varitek is arguably more of an upgrade than the downgrade from Bay to Cameron on offense (and obviously both moves are upgrades on defense).

Look where Youk played 1/2 his games. Is it your opinion that pitchers in the AL fear the power of Youkilis and Miggy or A-Rod the same way?
OPS+, which adjusts for ballpark: A-Rod, 147, Youkilis, 145, Cabrera, 142. I don’t know if AL pitchers fear them all the same way, and I’m not sure it matters.
As for pitching around players, Cabrera was walked intentionally 14 times, Teixeira 9 times, Rodriguez 7 times, and Youkilis 6 times. (Bay was walked intentionally 4 times). Rodriguez saw a 3-0 count 21 times in 2009, Youkilis saw one 15 times.
What does that mean? I have no idea. But it doesn’t seem to point to an idea that Youkilis is pitched around more, which may mean that Youkilis isn’t as “feared,” which means he might see more pitches to hit, and the numbers indicate he’s just as good a hitter as any in the league.
big boppers are best when they have protection
Ortiz’s own career does not indicate this is true, as his stats were just as good when he was batting fourth, providing protection for Ramirez in 2003-04, than when he was batting third. In the final month of 2006, when Ramirez was out with a knee injury, Ortiz posted a 1.143 OPS. Ramirez was also out for most of September 2007, and Ortiz posted a 1.341 OPS. Small sample size, of course, but I think the idea of “protection” is overrated. The best protection Youkilis can get is to have Ellsbury, Pedroia and Martinez getting on base in front of him.
As for them winning 95 games last year, what does that really have to do with how many they win this year?
Well, it is a base from which to measure improvement (or not) of your team. More accurate would be to use Pythag record (92 wins), but how would you suggest we determine how well a team should do in a season if we don’t look at how they did the season before?
Other than those two items, I think we are — and have been — in agreement, and I’ll readily admit that I trend toward the optimistic side before the season starts, but I also don’t think it’s unwarranted optimism either.

By protection I mean this:
A pitcher approaches each batter with a game plan. That game plan is based both on that particular players ability and who will follow him in the lineup. Not just 3 hitter, 4 hitter, but so on down the lineup. To your point, the longer the lineup, the more a pitcher loses in his ability to be careful. Not intentionally walk, but to be careful with. Pitchers fear hitters that can change an inning on one swing. Sure guys like Ichiro, Crawford, Jeter are feared, but not in the same way. In most cases the worst one of those guys can do is get into scoring position with a 2B or 3B and in which case you still have a chance to get out of things with minimal damage. Guys like Tex, A-Rod, Howard, Utley, Pujols, AGonz, etc…can all change an inning in one swing and drastically change a pitchers game plan. It’s my opinion that you need 2 of these types of hitters to really screw up that approach. I am not saying you are wrong, it’s just my opinion. Power scares pitchers and sometimes it’s even the threat of power that scares pitchers. Last year Alex was not nearly the player he’s been in the past, especially right after he came back, but still pitchers approached him carefully because of the threat of power. Again, just my opinion, but I think the best offensive teams are the teams that have a big guy and a guy to protect him. (I know the ballpark may have something to do with this, but look at David Wright. When you have zero protection, your power numbers will suffer. Granted his overall lineup was terrible, so it’s not the best example)
A. I agree that there is really no reason to believe that Ortiz can’t be that hitter again. Totally do not blame you for being optimistic. If he struggles this year then obviously the optimism is now gone.
B. I just think a better way to determine your particular teams outlook for this season would be to assess the other teams in the division, league, etc…not look at what they did last year. I suppose you can say well that team won 95, why can’t this team, but I just think from year to year there are too many variables to make that statement. I don’t disagree with you that the Sox are better though and it should show in the #’s. Like I said above.

“Basically Ortiz just needs to establish that he has something left in the tank.”
I don’t know who said anything about him being “peak Papi”…but it wasn’t me.
It just seems odd, and I am not attacking by any means, to say that Ortiz isn’t remotely the key to the Sox season. This is a man that will probably bat where? 4th or 5th for this team correct? If your 4th or 5th hitter isn’t a key, then maybe he shouldn’t be your 4th or 5th hitter. Is he the only key, no way. I think with the way the Sox are expected to pitch, they are still very good regardless of what Ortiz does, but the difference between very good and great could lie in the balance of this offense. All Ortiz has to do is prove he’s not Giambi-ish empty (not using him for any other reason than he was a middle of the lineup thumper that disappeared overnight) at the plate and that he can still thump when he needs to and pitchers will pitch the rest of the lineup different. I am not being outrageous or claiming that the Sox suck, just being honest.

by the way, is there any chance they’re going to platoon Ortiz and Lowell at DH? Ortiz was awful against lefties last year and Lowell mashed them. It would be an expensive way to fill out the DH spot and it might cause too much anger for 2 veterans. I’m guessing Lowell doesn’t play another game for the Sox, but what if they can’t move him? Do they just waive him?

Look around at every team in the Major Leagues – which team doesn’t have speculative question marks at nearly every position?
The exercise of blanketing a very good team with question marks everywhere (“what if CC Sabathia chokes on a hoagie!? what if Jorge Posada’s ears finally block his view of oncoming pitches!?”) is hollow. Every player has legitimate question marks, no matter how dependable they have been, no matter the career year they have had prior to signing a big contract. It isn’t that questioning the expectations of certain players isn’t legitimate – it is – but the manner in which some commenters here always belittle the debate by carpetbombing the discussions with “what-ifs” gets tiresome.

This from David Ortiz and the Boston.com:
“Well, protection, in baseball, for a guy like me, is always going to be an issue,” Ortiz said. “No question about it. Whoever knows baseball, knows that. If you look at the Yankees last year, [Mark] Teixeira when did he start raking? When Alex [Rodriguez] came back. Manny [Ramirez] and me, we did the same thing. If I’m a pitcher and I had to face Papi and I gotta face any other guy, in a tough situation, I’m not sure I’m not gonna shoot for the guy that I feel is not gonna be a tough guy in a dangerous situation for me. That’s how baseball goes. And everybody knows that. So everybody needs protection in baseball…At one point you need someone behind you to see pitches.”