Baseball Prospectus has posted its PECOTA projections (subscription only). Here are a few Yanks- and Sox-related highlights:
- PECOTA doesn’t see A-Rod having a bounce-back year. He’ll stay around the rather miserable 34 home run mark, knocking in 104 runs and batting .288.
- It likes Big Papi a lot, although, again, he will not match his spectacular 2006. Ortiz is predicted to hit 41 dingers (I imagine 20 of those will be game winners).
- Melky!!! His numbers don’t look great in his second year but 3 of his 4 comps do: Carlos Beltran, Roberto Alomar and Rickie Ashburn. Not too shabby.
- Coco Crisp and Jason Varitek will both have bounce-back years. PECOTA has the Sox center fielder batting over .300, with an OBP over .360. His numbers do not match Johnny "Heart of the Yankees" Damon, but they’re in the same territory. Damon is projected to hit 18 homers and get on base at a .362 clip.
- J.D. Drew and Bobby Abreu are very similar players with PECOTA giving the slight advantage in VORP to the man who most clearly resembles the love-child of Jose Canseco and Sammy Sosa (minus the steroids stigma). Abreu’s VORP: 21.2; Drew’s VORP: 19.6
- Philip Hughes is projected to have a nice ERA and WHIP in limited innings: a 3.91 ERA, 1.29 WHIP and 108 k’s in 130 innings. Of all the pitchers on both teams predicted to be starters next year, Hughes has the lowested projected ERA.
- PECOTA’s thoughts on the Beckett v. Wang debate: Beckett bounces back (a little) with a 4.47 ERA and 23.7 VORP; Wang regresses to a 4.35 ERA and a 21.5 VORP. They pitch almost exacty the same number of innings. Essentially, PECOTA has them having very similar years.
- PECOTA thinks Dice-K will be good, along the lines of what Paul has predicted on this site: 162 strike outs in 182 innings and a 4.01 ERA. Schilling is predicted to put up very similar numbers, with the Japanese import having slightly more value.
- PECOTA likes Robinson Cano’s upside. The first two comps on his list are Carlos Baerga and Rod Carew. He is projected to have another nice year, although PECOTA is somewhat conservative with his BA (.308).
- From the "Might We Regret The Day We Traded Him" Category: PECOTA likes Hanley Ramirez, predicting a high VORP for the former Sock. I assumed PECOTA was high on Randy Johnson and was going to include him in this category, but it only sees the Big Unit as making 19 starts with an ERA of 3.97. In Arizona, I ain’t too impressed by those numbers.
There’s a lot more fun stuff which I don’t have time to cover. You might choose to put zero stock in these numbers. Anyway, I find them nice to look at during these boring empty months.