Readers of Baseball Prospectus will be familiar with the exceptional work of Will Carroll, a guru to many sabermetricians on the subject of player health. Before each season, Carroll looks through each team roster, guaging the health prospect of every player, assigning them to one of three categories: green light (likely to be healthy, barring accident), yellow light (some danger), red light (high probability for serious breakdown). Yesterday, he posted his review of the Yankees, and it will come as no surprise, given their ages and histories, that the entire Yankee rotation, save Tiger Wang, lands in his red light zone—and as Cliff Corcoran notes on Bronx Banter, he probably belongs there, too. If there’s anything interesting here, it’s the suggestion that Chacon, who appears the picture of stability, lands in the red zone because he is slated to pitch dramatically more innings than he ever has logged in the past. Beyond that, the rest seems pretty obvious, and we have to wonder about the actual utility of the entire project—predicting the unpredictable is a dodgy business, even if this system is presented more as a “warning” guide. Anyway, it’s worth a read.
Previous post: ¿Quién es la Más Perezoso?