SF’s Annual Demonstration of Knowledge in Predicting the Only Thing thatMatters

Last year, out of 19 categories, I got the most important thing right.
As for the rest? YF did better. Big whoop. Anyhow, here goes, and
like my co-blogger I am going to be just as much of a homer, at least
about the important stuff. As for the rest of the hardware? The Yanks
can have it (and probably will).

AL East: NY, Bos, TB, Balt, Tor
AL Central: Min, Cle, Chi, Det, KC
AL West: Oak, LAAoA, Sea, Tex
AL WC: Bos

NL East: Atl, Fla, NY, Phi, DC
NL Central: StL, Hou, Chi, Mil, Cin, Pitt
NL West: LA, SD, SF, AZ, Col
NL WC: Fla

AL Champ: Bos
NL Champ: Stl
WS Champ: Bos

AL Cy: Johnson
AL MVP: Johnson
AL Man: Torre
AL ROY: McPherson
NL Cy: Pedro
NL MVP: Miguel Cabrera
NL Man: Randolph
NL ROY: Duke

The shortsighted part of making these predictions now is that the teams
as currently made up likely bear no resemblance to the teams that will
be competing in August and beyond. That’s not to throw a wet blanket on
my predictions from last year, but they weren’t made assuming that Dave
Roberts, Minky, and the OC would be important contributors). Knowing
this, it makes the Wade Miller factor that YF cites in his previous post
basically meaningless – not only is Wakefield pitching in his spot for
the moment, but if Miller can’t come back, someone else will end up
replacing him. We can be confident that with Theo it will probably be
equal or better to what Miller might have provided, or at least what we
should reasonably expect of him at the current moment, which isn’t much.
The same (almost) goes for the Yankees. If Kevin Brown (or Mussina, who
I think is a season or two away from anchoring the Tigers rotation) hits
the wall in May and looks his age, then you can be sure some patsy will
ante up and dump off a player to the Yankees, even if it involves
Steinbrenner selling off the entire Clippers’ roster along with his
first born. This season, as YF states, may very well come down to age,
injury, and the impact of future acquisitions. So with this in mind, I
give the edge in the end to Theo Epstein, Bill James, and the defending
champion Sox (did I just say “defending champions? You bet I did!).

Simply put: Cashman’s acquisitions will be insufficient, Epstein’s
successful. The Yanks GM is overmatched, and that will be the clincher
between these two fierce rivals – brainpower trumps deeper pockets. We
know Randy Johnson is phenomenal (in this blogger’s opinion a Cy Young
and MVP wrapped into one), but that will not carry the Yankees through
their aging travails, the rest of the league, or past the Red Sox. In
his last year here (another prediction), it will be shown that Brian
Cashman didn’t have the brains or the resources to help any of you
Yankees fans out.

So I say it’s back-to-back for the Olde Towne Team, and October will be
the time to put the 5 boroughs back on what will hopefully be an annual
ritual: a city-wide suicide watch.

13 comments… add one

  • Now you tell us! SF’s predictions were off last year because teams (especially his Sox) went and made, like, trades during the season. Holy shit! They can do that?! No wonder YF only nailed 5 of 19. SF is totally right; it’s really, really hard to predict the future when you’re not exactly sure what’s going to happen.
    But here’s one thing that we can agree on. Win or lose, this is likely to be Cashman’s last year in NY. Our guess is he’ll be going to DC, where he has roots. By next spring, Jim Bowden will have completely drilled the Nats and their future into the ground, so we’ll see how Cash does with a clean slate. Our guess: it won’t be long before he has them contending.

    YF March 30, 2005, 4:20 pm
  • Please, you know what the real point is, so don’t be such a phony. This year, for both the Sox and Yanks, rests heavily on the aged and the injured. In this case, I justify my picks based on the deftness with which each team will deal with these problems. As for Cashman and his fictional future with an NL team? Who cares, really.
    Also, substitute “Cashman” and “Yankees” for “Bowden” and “Nats” in your last sentence and you might be on to something.

    SF March 30, 2005, 4:40 pm
  • Okay, SF. You’ve downed the BoSox CoolAid. Good for you. Theo’s a genius. Cashman’s a boob. Schilling’s going to fix social security. Millar’s onto this whole cancer thing. Why not just go ahead and call for the three-peat?

    YF March 30, 2005, 5:02 pm
  • THREEPEAT!

    SF March 30, 2005, 5:12 pm
  • There are plenty of legitimate reasons the Sox can win, actually. In a lot of ways, the Yanks and Sox have switched roles, and besides the frequently-mentioned symbolic role reversal, there’s a real on-field symmetry too. Last year, the Yanks were thought to have a beastly offense and adequate pitching, and the Sox had an offense that was a smidgen behind and superior pitching. Now it’s the Red Sox offense that’s decidedly superior (any doubts? Ortiz proved he was for real, Nixon, Millar, and Mueller can be expected to improve on last year’s performance. The Yankees, on the other hand, are aging before our eyes.), and the Yanks’ pitching with a noticeable edge (which may be less noticeable if everything breaks the Sox’ way with Miller & Clement). The big difference is that the Sox have a solid bullpen where the Yankees’ are not too far removed from last year’s staff of pyromaniacs. Given that the Yanks hit their way to victory any number of times last year, I see no reason that the Sox won’t do the same. But as SF said, there will need to be a move made midseason if Miller and Clement don’t pan out ideally, and while that hypothetical move mightn’t be a prerequisite to postseason play, it almost certainly will be necessary for postseason success.

    rcolonna (sf) March 30, 2005, 8:46 pm
  • Wake up! Its gonna take the sox another 80 years to win a championship. You people are dellusional, I predict the hardware comes back to the Bronx. SF get in the bathroom. You have a better chance with LOTTO.

    El Duque March 31, 2005, 11:42 am
  • If only I had played Lotto last year instad of, uh, picking the World Series winner…DAMMIT!

    SF March 31, 2005, 11:47 am
  • SF so you know what you have to do play lotto, haha. Back to the basement for you guys.

    El Duque March 31, 2005, 12:55 pm
  • SF I am guesing you have been picking the Sox to win it for several years. I can’t imagine your winning% is all that great. As far as the Yanks getting older that is hogwash the way these atheltes train in todays day and age the whole getting old concept is over rated. Every year it is a diffrent reason the media picks that the yankees won’t win it. This year is no difrent they just keep hounding on age. Everyone is overlooking expeirience. I personaly was more worried about the sox last year because they had a year of expirience under there belt from 03 and basicly the same team except for Schilling and Bellhorn.But yet they had a hard time beating bascally a newly formed Yankee team. Well the shoe is on the other foot now. he yankees have ateam that has been togetrher minus Johnson wich there are no worries there more than enough expierience and Wright and Pavano both have pitched in the world series. Look out this team is probably the best team the Yankees have had since they have been dominating the divison. And I see it happening for another 3 to 4 years easly

    Bob March 31, 2005, 2:49 pm
  • Until last year I had never picked the Sox to win it in my entire life, 35 years’ worth. In fact, I had avoided doing a whole lot of things, like buying an official Sox jersey, or putting a certain piece paraphenalia in a different place in a room, or other such cockamamie things out of some idiotic paranoia that I would jinx them. Last year that kind of talismanic paranoia stopped, and they won. And that’s 100% fact – when picking the Sox to win it all I am one for one.

    SF March 31, 2005, 3:29 pm
  • well I stand corrected!! Congrats But you will be @5% after his year.

    Bob March 31, 2005, 4:00 pm
  • oops missed a 0 50%

    Bob March 31, 2005, 4:01 pm
  • Devil Rays finishing third? Now THAT’S bold.

    MJL - SF April 1, 2005, 7:01 pm

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