Discuss all things Santana and Winter Meetings here.
“seem to love Jon Lester and aren’t crazy about Melky Cabrera.”
Seems to me the comparison should be between Lester/Hughes and Melky/Crisp. I sort of agree about Melky in that I don’t think he’s a budding star, but defensively I think he’s comparable to Crisp, and at least lately, he has the edge offensively – plus he’s many millions of dollars cheaper.
I’ll be the first to admit that I’m not an expert on Melky, but his defense is comparable to Crisp’s? Really? I didn’t hear many people saying he got robbed in the GG voting this year.
The EEI flash is saying that Detroit is in talks with Florida for a Dontrelle/Cabrerra package for about ten minor leaguers from Detroit.
That will be a huge deal if it’s true.
Pete’s right about Cabrera, but for some reason a lot of Yankee fans just really seem to think he’s all that. Not sure why.
Now, I have a beef with him: Why the hillbilly tag? Just because it’s in Nashville? Because there’s a strong country music presence? Nothing worse than big-city East Coasters coming to a perfectly fine city and sneering at it as “hillbilly.” Maybe I’m reading too much into it, but as a transplanted New Englander living in Texas, regional stereotyping really bothers me.
His arm is better by far, but he can’t track it like Coco can. The two probably offset each other a ‘bit, so yeah, they’re probably pretty comparable. If you need a sure fire fly ball tracked down, you take Coco, if you need an assist, you take Melky. But most people think that when you remove Melky as the weakest link in a powerhouse lineup, he’ll stop being what he is offensively. At least, that’s the argument I heard from Mike Francesa on the FAN.
// but defensively I think he’s comparable to Crisp //
Wow. I’m not a big fan of Crisp, with his nervous chin-tuck tick at the plate, and what has seemed like a perpetual sulk every since the early 2006 injury.
But his defense is exceptional, and I don’t think Cabrera remotely compares in that department.
Cafardo reports the Tigers are in heavy talks on both Haren and Willis.
Crisp’s OPS this season was .712, Cabrera’s was .718.
And Crisp is a *star* defensively. I don’t know if you’ve seen him much, but the man tracks down balls no one should have a chance at. He can fly and he almost always takes a great route to the ball.
Point taken on the money, though. Who knows what the rest of the offer is regarding whether they’ll take a piece of his salary or something…
Paul, as someone who grew up in SC, and spent a fair amount of time in Nashville, the hillbilly tag is pretty appropriate; though less so now than when I lived there for a short time in the ’80’s. Even friends of mine who live there today call it “Hillbilly Heaven”.
“but his defense is comparable to Crisp’s?”
Jackie, check the stats – I did sometime around August and found their defensive numbers to be quite close – that may have changed somewhat over the last couple months of the season, but I doubt the change was drastic.
Can’t get the assist if you don’t make the catch.
“This afternoon the Twins were meeting with the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, who have jumped into the Santana negotiations at the eleventh hour. Previously, the Angels had been focusing on Florida Marlins third baseman Miguel Cabrera, but have been stuck trying to complete a deal.
There is said to be a division among Angels executives over which player to pursue — Cabrera or Santana.
The Twins have told the Angels that Jared Weaver would have to be part of a deal for Santana to give Minnesota another young starter as part of the mix. Other names expected to be talked about include shortstop prospect Brandon Wood.
The Twins and Red Sox have not spoken since early this morning.”
Imagine that after all this Santana and Haren both go elsewhere?
I agree, Paul. My entire family is out West for the most part, and they hold a very strong opinion of people from New England, which is pretty funny to me, since the most country people I’ve ever met are from Maine and New Hampshire!
But yes, a small section of Interstate-95 from New Jersey to Boston give New Englanders a very bad name with re: to stereotyping different areas of the country.
I’ve never rooted for the Angels like I am rooting for them now!
By most statistical measurements, Coco Crisp is a superior defensive player. Superior to Melky and superior with respects to the rest of the league. He may not be the best, but he’s in the top third, it would seem. By most statistical measurements, Melky Cabrera is not.
Defense is very difficult to measure and the stats have limitations, but if you survey most stats used to track D you can get a broader picture of the two players.
I looked the numbers up and posted on this previously, here:
Funny, at the beginning of this process, I would have been thrilled with the Angels getting Santana. Now, I’m all nervous. Weird.
The one thing that gives the Sox the stronger offer for Santana is that they are offering Jed Lowrie. You can argue all you want about who’s pitchers are better, who’s outfielder has better numbers, but I think Lowrie is what seals the deal. The Twins have interest in a middle infielder, and while he may not be major league-ready, he’s probably not that far off. If the Yanks put Cano in the offer, and the deal is sealed. Lowrie gives the Sox’s offer more depth, period. Now, if the Yanks add Kennedy, then you can argue that their offer contains more pitching depth, which is also attractive. But the Sox’s available chips just have the depth the Twins desire.
ESPN blog says Bedard is thisclose to going to LA (Dodgers) – not shocking that the O’s are trading outside of the AL East, if this happens.
I’ve never been sold on defensive metrics. ;) I just know that Coco’s D is ridiculous; and it’s a little surprising to me that I haven’t heard more raving about Cabrera’s work in the field if the two of them really are similar. But maybe the arm and the ball-tracking do balance each other out, and it’s just because diving catches are more spectacular than assists that Coco gets more press.
– Pete\’s right about Cabrera, but for some reason a lot of Yankee fans just really seem to think he\’s all that. Not sure why. –
Maybe because he\’s 22 and has stretches where he looks like he could be a 3/4/5 guy IF he matures as a hitter? That\’s a big IF, but he\’s already ahead of where Bernie was
Crisp by contrast put up .266 .302 .353 in his first full season at age 23. Melky is going into that development year with two full seasons under his belt.
P.s. That seems to be another trick around here. Phrase a barb as question like: Why should we think Dice-K will adjust from anything more than a very average pitcher?
“Can’t get the assist if you don’t make the catch.”
Um, not true. Cabrera would have slotted right behind Andy as the savior of Game 2 had the Yankees won. He threw a guy out at the plate trying to score from second on a single. Strong arms are pretty valuable.
Yeah, Santana on the Angels is a filthy thought.
I would have been okay with the Angels getting A-Rod, but for some reason I am terrified of Santana in Anaheim.
Anon was me.
Also, there’s a report that Lowrie is pretty bad defensively, and according to a scout would never stick at shortstop. Being that the Twins love their defense, why would they value Lowrie so highly, who is no guarantee with the bat but seems to be very questionable defensively as well?
I’ve got the Tunderstix in hand. All I need is that damn monkey! Where is that little guy?
Frickin, Typepad is awful. Anons were me (Andrew).
According to some posts at SOSH, scouts apparently tend to either love or hate Lowrie’s glove, and that the overall view of his defense has improved in the last two years.
I don’t see the Sox doing five for one unless the fifth is way down in the system.
ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick: “Scott Boras has apparently recovered from the sting of losing longtime client Kenny Rogers. According to two sources at the winter meetings, Red Sox outfielder Jacoby Ellsbury has dropped agent Joe Urbon and is now represented by Boras.”
“I looked the numbers up and posted on this previously, here:”
SF, Maybe you linked the wrong thread? I couldn’t find the numbers.
Careful what you wish for, Nick. Let’s rememeber that it’s not the Red Sox that can’t get past the Angels. Those thundersticks might just haunt you for a few years, especially if the Yankees are the Wild Card..
According to two sources at the winter meetings, Red Sox outfielder Jacoby Ellsbury has dropped agent Joe Urbon and is now represented by Boras.”
I doubt the Angels are that serious about Santana. They don’t need pitching. They need a young power bat.
Old news, SF… that came out what, 12 hours ago? ;) I wonder if that has any/significant impact on this trade… Twins might want him less if they know he’s going to be demanding loads of cash when his contract is up.
Well, technically the Red Sox don’t need pitching either, but everyone knows he’s, to use your words, Johan Freakin’ Santana!!!
It needs to be bolded, Devine. Johan Freaking Santana!
“The Minnesota Twins have yet to respond to the Boston Red Sox’s two-pronged proposal for ace Johan Santana, according to an official from one of the teams.
The official, who asked not to be named because he has not been authorized to speak publicly, said the Red Sox gave the Twins a choice of two offers: pitcher Jon Lester and center fielder Coco Crisp plus prospects or outfielder Jacoby Ellsbury plus a larger package of prospects.”
Good to know they’ve stopped reporting the Sox offered Ellsbury AND Crisp.
As far as Crisp vs Cabrera goes AGAIN.
1. I agree with Mike. (see mike, i dont hate you) I think that comparing the two players at different stages in their development is very difficult to do. Throwing their OPS last season up there isnt really a good means to compare them. Typically players of Melkys age get better and those of Crisp are at their peak.
2. Heavily discounting Melky’s arm is not valid. I freely admit that Coco’s range is sick, much better than Melkys. That said Melk’s arm is much better though. Over the course of a season, Id be willing to bet that these things come close to canceling each other out in terms of outs created.
3. Lets agree that his contract situation is massively better than Coco. There should be no argument about this.
The Angels are a lot better offensively than everyone seems to think… 4th in the AL in RS (right behind Boston) and 6th overall; the glaring hole is power (not even top 10 in SLG) but they get on base a lot. They rank similarly (4th/5th in the AL) in RA and OBPA, so I’d say they’d benefit about the same from a top-notch pitcher as a top-notch slugger.
Melky is going to improve as a hitter. He’s not going to be a superstar, but he’s going to be a solid hitter, and a defensive plus. He’s 5 years younger than Crisp and is much cheaper.
Like somebody else said, the comparison should be between Hughes and Lester, not Lester and Melky Cabrera. And when it comes down to Lester vs. Hughes, I don’t see the comparison. Hughes tops Lester in every category to measure pitching success and he’s 2.5 years younger than Lester.
I was reading Rob Neyer’s chat and according to him, the Sox chip in the deal is Lowrie. he also said that Ellsbury is being overvalued because of how he performed in October.
The Yankees apparently have given their best offer. All those people dissing Hank were wrong and Hank was right. The Yankees offer was strong. If they think the package the Sox put together is better, enjoy. If Hank were truly like a younger version of his Dad, the Yankees would have traded Hughes, Joba, and Kennedy along with Cabrera, Jackson, Horne and draft picks.
Could be the Twins are doing to the Sox what they did to the Yankees, with the Angels now playing the Sox’s previous role. Just keep jacking up the price, then go on to the next guy. Could be effective, but it will make sure no team ever wants to deal with you again. And pissing off the three best teams in baseball is not a smart move, if that’s Bill Smith’s game.
The problem is their offense comes from players who are quickly aging — Anderson and Guerrero specifically. But Devine’s right, anytime you might be able to get JFS, you at least make the effort.
“The Yankees and Twins haven’t talked at all so far Tuesday about Johan Santana, amid increasing indications Santana is going to be dealt to Boston. The Twins are also talking to the Angels, however.”
2. Heavily discounting Melky’s arm is not valid. I freely admit that Coco’s range is sick, much better than Melkys. That said Melk’s arm is much better though. Over the course of a season, Id be willing to bet that these things come close to canceling each other out in terms of outs created.
See Ramirez, Manny. They don’t.
I didn’t post the numbers, Andrews, I posted about them. ESPN has a pretty decent summary of sortable defensive stats, though, if you wanted to look them up. That (plus Pinto’s PMR) is where I was looking, just so you know my sourcing.
Why would we trade Hughes + ?? for Dan Haren?
Especially after reading comparisons of minor league stats (Beckett, Gooden, Pavano,Isringhausen…), Hughes should be as untouchable as Joba.
Ramirez doesn’t have that great of an arm. Johnny Damon could throw out a guy from home with that left field.
“The Twins and Red Sox are getting closer to finalizing a Johan Santana deal. Boston has sweetened its offer by adding a fifth player to the the offer — outfield prospect Ryan Kalish, a ninth-round pick in the 2006 draft out of Red Bank Catholic High School (Shrewsbury, N.J.).”
Shows how much I know.
I wonder when they added this? Certainly not recently, otherwise the Sox would have just bid against themselves. I wonder if that sweetener was added during the early morning discussions.
“The Twins and Red Sox are getting closer to finalizing a Johan Santana deal. Boston has sweetened its offer by adding a fifth player to the the offer — outfield prospect Ryan Kalish, a ninth-round pick in the 2006 draft out of Red Bank Catholic High School”
Wow Ryan Kalish! That’s a deal-maker.
Actually, about the only things Manny does reasonably well in the field are: barehanding the carom of the Monster and throwing. His arm is very good, actually. Sadly, he has to use it too often because he tracks balls really poorly.
Oh, I don\’t think you hate me, Sam. I just think you\’ve admitted you choose sides based on who is a regular rather than the merits of the argument. I don\’t need you to agree with me, just be fair rather than try to look objective by currying favor with Sox fans. I treat people respectfully even as I don\’t agree with them. Regrettably, as a newbie, I haven\’t gotten the same treatment around here, and from authors no less, even as that\’s been claimed as the ideal, and from the same folks throwing barbs.
One thing I underemphasized: The reason Yankee fans have high hopes for Melky really does come from how similar he performs to a young Bernie. I don\’t expect many Sox fans to remember, but Bernie was completely lost as a Yankee youngster, looked extremely gawky, and so much so he was picked on by his teammate (Mel Hall) and had to be told to back off (by Mattingly). And then we saw what Bernie blossomed into.
To say that Melky is ahead of Bernie\’s development is saying a lot to a Yankee fan. And he is. Of course we have no idea what the future holds.
Speaking of Bernie, a lot of folks forget he almost became a Sock after 1998 season because the Yanks were going to sign Belle. In the back of my mind, I always think about the moves that weren\’t made as much as the ones that were. Bernie ended up being overpaid in the last two-three years of that deal. but it was still the right move.
Fuck! We can’t give up Ryan Kalish! That’s just completely unreasonable. Theo, what are you thinking?
Those Pinto numbers are for range I dont think they take into account put outs with arm and esp those of players who dont test a good arm.
When making the point of comparison I wasnt talking generally, i was talking specifically about Coco vs Melky. Melky’s range isnt even close to as bad as Manny’s, in fact its just about average. His arm makes up for alot of those outs. Melky had 16 A and crisp 7 last year.
Manny as an example of every time some brings up assists doesnt work. He plays in a tiny LF with a huge green wall behind it. Thats where those assists come from.
– See Ramirez, Manny. They don\’t. –
That is an absurd comparison. One has a lot of assists with the worst range in a living room. The other has a lot of assists with average range in an acre of real estate.
I don’t think the Sox play the jack up game with the Twins when the other player is the Angels. I readily think that NY is the only player they would intentionally drive up the price for.
FWIW, the Angels can put together a sick package.
Has anyone heard what the Angels would be offering for Santana?
I’d like to see you play that wall.
I may have missed it above, but reports are saying the Angels have offered Weaver and Wood. I can\’t see how the Sox beat that offer unless they go to Ellsbury AND Lester AND Lowrie. Have to assume the Angels would throw in Willits too.
Jackie: the Twins would want Jered Weaver and Brandon Wood from the Angels.
I don’t want to continue disparaging the Sox offer, but Jered Weaver is heads and shoulders above Lester: his ceiling is comparable if not higher, and he is already an established major league arm with a good amount of success. And Brandon Wood, while his prospect status has cooled a bit, was once one of the top prospects in the game.
I just think it’s weird. Maybe Pohlad is really a Red Sox fan at heart.
Reports are saying the Twins have ASKED for Weaver, and that Wood may be a part of any deal.
No reports say the Angels have actually offered anyone.
Pinto’s numbers are limited in use. I cite them in the context of all the other defensive statistics to flesh out the players. I wouldn’t ever want to rely on one single statistic to tout someone’s abilities, particularly on defense. No way.
The overall picture for me is that Crisp is a truly gifted fielder with a weak arm, while Cabrera is, at best, an average fielder with a very good arm. Then you add in the offensive comparison and the contracts and I can understand why this may be a very hard decision to make for a trading partner.
If Santana goes to someone other than New York or Boston, Boston comes out the winner of this showdown, because Boston will still have a true #1, while New York won’t. As has already been stated umpteen times, the Yankees need Santana much more than the Sox do.
//Maybe Pohlad is really a Red Sox fan at heart.//
Could be, but it seems like the Twins are looking for quantity as well as quality. The Sox may not be giving up future MVPs/Cy Young winners, but they are plugging a lot of holes for the Twins with solid or very promising players.
The Royals have expressed interest in Sammy Sosa. REPEAT, THE ROYALS HAVE EXPRESSED INTEREST IN SAMMY SOSA!
Sorry, these Winter Meetings have me in a tizzy.
The yankees better be damn sure they think they have 3 number 1s for not making this trade. These three guys better be competing regularly for Cy Youngs if we are passing up our one shot of landing Johan F’n Santana.
“By most statistical measurements, Coco Crisp is a superior defensive player.”
True, last year he was superior:
Here are some of the cf numbers:
FPCT RF ZR A E
Crisp:(1216inn) .998 3.07 .911 7 1
Melky:1073inn) .989 3.02 .903 14 4
Crisp had a clear advantage in TC (416 to 364) and PO (408 to 346)
Much better than his career averages:
FPCT RF ZR A E
3735 inn .993 2.65 .875 15 8
Much smaller sample size, but here are Melky’s career stats:
1145 inn .990 2.96 .893 14 4
You are comfortable stating: ” Superior to Melky and superior with respects to the rest of the league. He may not be the best, but he’s in the top third, it would seem.” based on one stellar year in the field?
I’ll preface this by agreeing with SF that one must consider how much weight you want to throw towards defensive metrics, and if ever there was a place where one could cherry pick, here’s the category, especially for counting stats like assists and out of zone. Crisp has very good metrics for 2007 in RZR (.909) and OOZ. He was statistically unattractive in 2006. Sizemore’s superior play pushed him to left field in 2005 and part of 2004; his 2004 CF numbers are not attractive. Melky does have a plus arm and makes plays in zone at a percentage with that puts him in the best in the league (.910), but does not record many outs OOZ; he’s in the bottom third of regular CFs in that category.
Crisp: 58 OOZ, 7 assists
Cabrera: 33 OOZ, 14 assists
For the record, Ichiro leads the bigs in OOZ with 97, followed by Granderson (85) and Jones (80).
Offensively, they are comparable now; 23 y.o. Melky certainly looks better than 23 y.o. Crisp, but one thing that Crisp has that Melky never will is upper eschelon speed. And the fact is that at least for last season, both of them are not a Corey Patterson or a Bill Hall as far as being a liability to the offense, but neither are a far sight better.
Yeah, but I don’t think either can beat LAA if they were to land him. I’m not of the ilk of scoring a thousand runs means you’re going to beat that great duo of pitchers, and now with Garland (and possibly Santana), they’re sick from top to bottom in that rotation.
Yes, I am, Andrews. It’s just an opinion, though. Coco made the transition to centerfield which allowed him to show off his range more than when in left – look at his numbers in Cleveland at each position. He was hurt in 2006. I trust if he’s healthy next year he will do similarly well.
On the other hand, centerfield also exposes his arm. Double-edged sword, of course.
All that to say that I agree with Brad’s assessment above.
Oh jeez, I completely forgot about the Garland acquisition… suppose I’ll rescind my comments about LAA needing pitching about as much as they need offense.
\”truly gifted fielder\”
That is a bit much, no? His range was excellent this year, but it was not nearly as good in 2006. Meanwhile as he ages, and he slows a bit over the next few years, he\’ll struggle to stay in baseball if his bat doesn\’t improve.
“He was hurt in 2006.”
A hand injury at the beginning of the year would affect his fielding stats to a large degree for the whole season? Really?
From the Extra Bases blog:
“Former Sox infielder Tim Naehring has been hired by the New York Yankees in their minor league system…”
Say it ain’t so, Timmy! He was my very favorite player when I was in 2nd grade.
I think the Melky thing comes down to the Melkman. He came on last season when we didn’t expect him and he offered a spark. And this has happened to us before, but usually the player then fades to whence they came. Be it Shane Spencer or Ruben Rivera or Aaron Small, there is always one player that gives us a spark.
But none of them ever got a nickname, none of them seem to craft a bond with another player like the Melkman did with Cano. And we remember the period where the Sox seemed in free-fall and we couldn’t lose, every big defensive play seemed to involve Melkman. He has provided much more than we ever expected and he gives us some hope for the future.
If the YFs are rating Melky highly, its because we’ve come to care for him as more than just another prospect/young player/trade bait. I don’t think numbers count for that entirely.
The Yankees as an organization might be dead inside, but many of us YFs are big softies.
– The yankees better be damn sure they think they have 3 number 1s for not making this trade. These three guys better be competing regularly for Cy Youngs if we are passing up our one shot of landing Johan F\’n Santana. –
This is absurd too. All they need, Sam, is ONE of those guys to hit that plateau and it would be a great decision. A cherry-on-top would be the other one or two as average and it is a HUGE win – because of the players kept. And they\’ll be paying them all pennies to do so over the next six years.
So the five for one would be Lester and Crisp, and No. 3 prospect Lowrie, No. 4 prospect Masterson and No. 8 prospect Kalish.
I would at least hope the Sox get a reliever thrown in there for five players.
Sorry, transposed Lowrie and Masterson. Masterson is the No. 3 and Lowrie the No. 4. With Buchholz and Ellsbury graduating, that leaves Bowden and Lars Anderson as the top two prospects.
“John doesn’t count – he only pretends to like the Yankees. :)”
Hey Mike do me a favor, keep your comments about me to yourself. I let the comment go about my children, because I figured it was made in the heat of the battle and antogonized slightly by me. You had no way of knowing my newborn son had just spent a week in intensive care, but still a douche move. Now without any attacks from me (haven’t commented since 11 a.m.) you question my allegiance to the Yankees? You don’t have to agree with what I say and you don’t have to read what I write, but keep your comments about me to yourself.
The Twins should take that deal right this second.
Plus (RE: the Angels), really? The good Weaver? If I were the Angels, I’d laugh (the jump in quality isn’t that big and Weaver’s young). You are right about this, Paul. They probably *should* concentrate a little more on the big bat than the big pitcher.
“Coco made the transition to centerfield which allowed him to show off his range more than when in left – look at his numbers in Cleveland at each position.”
SF, help me out here. Based simply on range factor Crisp’s numbers were in the mid to low 2’s in either position while in Cleveland. After a 2.49 mark in ’06 with Boston, last year his RF jumped to 3.07. What other stat are you using to assess range?
Who, or what, the hell is Ryan Kalish? Do we care?
Ryan Kalish: A ball, 2006 draft, could project to a 20 HR/40 stolen base kind of guy say some peoples on SoSH.
Wow, John, you are obviously under a lot of stress. I am very sorry to hear about your newborn. I really hope (and pray) everything turns out okay there.
Hey Mike, FYI, John is one of the most loyal and insightful YF’s who posts on this site. Please refrain from hurling insults in his direction…
I promise not to post PeteAbe\’s scouting if everyone promises not to post scouting from SOSH. Can we just all agree that neither add anything of substance in this area?
Mike, you are an antagonistic jerk.
Kalish tore up A-ball this year, YM. He’s considered one of the Sox’ very few legit power bat prospects.
Gotcha, Paul. Thanks.
Interesting…doesn’t it seem like the Sox are kind of cleaning out the closet on this one (in terms of quantity, not quality)?
Disengage. Please. It only gets worse when you respond.
Yes, YM, I’m much less happy about a 5-for-1 deal. I’d still do it, but I’d like to at least get something more than one player back for five.
Yeah guys thanks for your support and kind words, but let it go.
Kalish is a South Jersey kid also.
Andrews, FYI, unprovoked John called me an extremist and then offered a lame – sorry, but you are an extremist. I responded by questioning his ability to parent (since he brought up his kids) if he did not know how to properly apologize. As I said at the time, I was very happy to give an apology when I got one.
Of course, had I any idea what he was going through I would have watched my words much more carefully.
Forget it John. I am sorry to have questioned your parenting abilities.
“‘(Hank Steinbrenner) closed the door on the Santana thing,’ a high-ranking Yankees official said today. ‘The Santana thing’s over.’
The official spoke on the condition of anyonymity because the Yankees are trying to limit public comments. Hank Steinbrenner, the team’s senior vice president, would not comment on Santana.
The official did not explain why the Yankees withdrew from discussions, but on Monday night, the Twins went back to the Boston Red Sox after the Yankees again refused to include pitcher Ian Kennedy along with right-hander Phil Hughes and outfielder Melky Cabrera.
The Yankees do have a history of closing doors and re-opening them: on acquiring Randy Johnson from Arizona and on re-signing Alex Rodriguez after he opted out of his contract.”
SOSH has some of the most statistically mind-bending analyses of any website out there, and most is offered bias-free for the most part, Mike. That site is the home to some of the biggest stat-heads and prospect watchers around. Most all analyses coming out of that board could be printed and put into the Prospectus book as additional information.
The other is a biased beat reporter.
We really shouldn’t compare the two.
Then there is Devine. What is your problem now?
Really Brad. How do you tell the difference between all the Prospectus-worthy analysis (as you say) and the blatant Sox-colored lenses?
At least PeteAbe gets paid for his work (and to be in Nashville as we speak).
Still, I\’m not going to give either much weight as objective prospect gurus.
“The official spoke on the condition of anonymity because the Yankees are trying to limit public comments”
I find that a teensy bit funny…
Brad-SOSH is hardly an unbiased source.
“The Red Sox and the Twins are still trying to settle on the final package of prospects the Red Sox would give up in return for ace Johan Santana. Those talks are believed to be ongoing as the dinner hour approaches on the East Coast. The Red Sox may give up as many as five players, with the possibility that the Twins could send back a low-level prospect with Santana. The identities remain unknown currently but the names heard most often are Jed Lowrie, Justin Masterson and Ryan Kalish, with either Jon Lester and Coco Crisp or Jacoby Ellsbury atop the deal.
The Twins have told the Red Sox that they would like to get the deal done sometime today. One Red Sox source rolled his eyes this afternoon when he heard that Yankees’ New Boss Hank Steinbrenner had just declared the Yankees’ involvement with Santana to be over. “We’ve heard that before,” said the source, referring to Steinbrenner’s announcement that Alex Rodriguez would not be welcome back after opting out. The Red Sox are not 100 percent convinced that the Yankees could not, or will not, swoop back in and get Santana if they include Ian Kennedy in their offer that currently includes Phil Hughes and Melky Cabrera.”
Sam, I would think SOSH would be pretty trustworthy w/r/t Sox prospects, as long as it’s not a comparison between them and prospects from other organizations. The board is prety split right now on whether Kalish is a good or bad addition to the deal and his relative value. So obviously not everyone there thinks every Sox prospect is the berries, which seems to be what’s been implied here.
We all know (or should know) that the fans of a team can be irrationally pessimistic as well as irrationally optimistic about that team’s chances – or wasn’t that the point of those YFSF t-shirts? I think the sheer numbers over at SOSH lead to more or less balanced and insightful contributions.
But then, I have no problem with people quoting Pete Abe, either. I might not agree with him or necessarily trust his opinions, but banning a particular source on principle just seems stupid.
The official spoke on the condition of anonymity because the Yankees are trying to limit public comments”
I find it freaking hilarious, RBF.
Can’t you just imagine Hank yelling at a room full of yes-men “keep your mouths shut, and stop talking the press, you idiots…you’re killing us!!!”
Rooms full of rolling eyes.
Not to mention his interview w/Daily News last weekend, which he claimed was his last one. Heh.
Why are you pretending there is a problem, Paul, when there is not one? To try to make me look bad? And what is your problem with me? I have only treated you with respect even as I have (often) disagreed with your opinions. Do you like talking baseball or do you just like being right? And is it you that sometimes deletes my posts or it that someone else?
Seriously, I am scratching my head trying to figure out what I have done to be treated as a pariah. Apart from my comment to John (which I was called out for), I can not think of any thing.
Is it really as simple as me having my own opinions?
Sam, all I was saying is that SOSH offers a absolute slew of hard-statistical information on nearly all the threads about prospects, and it’s not always good. There are some real stat-gurus on there. Graphs, charts, websites, the whole nine-yards. I’ve gained valuable information with re: to nearly anything you want to know about anyone within the orgainization – both good and bad.
The other is a writer, and a poor one at that. Paid to follow a team, and hardly going to burn bridges with any of them on any given day as to not threaten his ability to talk to them.
I’ll say that neither is fully unbiased, but one offers a much more intelligent approach to scouting reports and player analyses (for the most part – just like every site, they do have their bad apples).
4:49 p.m., from Jayson Stark
• The Twins and Angels continue to talk about a Johan Santana trade. Many of the same players mentioned in the Miguel Cabrera sweepstakes — Howie Kendrick, Brandan Wood, Nick Adenhart, and possibly Jeff Mathis or Reggie Willits — would be included in a package for Santana.
• It is believed that the Angels haven’t talked with the Marlins since last night, and Miguel Cabrera is off their radar screen — at least for now.
Edit that: Pete is not a bad writer, but I meant to say a bad scouting reporter. In fact, his writing is readable which is more than you can say about a lot of the beat writers.
“Room full of yes-men”
Another snipe at the yankees FO from an SF, I guess I should be used to it at this point. Well if you really think thats true, its kind of hard to square that up with the fact that the yankees are passing on upping their offer. I think the lack of another offer has Cashman’s fingerprints all over it and is evidence of him still retaining control even with Hank’s talking.
Posts are deleted that cross the line or use over-the-top profanity. They have a conduct code on here somewhere. That should avoid that problem.
Man the angels have so many chips to trade and it seems like they are ready to move them. Id still rather them then the sox get Johan.
The Angels wouldn’t spend $28m on a player they needed (arod) but will spend $25m on a pitcher they really don’t?
I’ll believe it when it’s announced.
Neal posts a new entry for the Star-Tribune, but nothing new. Sox and Twins have talked. Two proposals on the table. Twins and Angels have talked. Twins seem to like Weaver. Wood would probably be part of the discussion.
He does say the Yanks appear to have apologized for Steinbrenner’s Santana comments.
Well said, Jackie. My suggestion was banning a source as an objective viewpoint on prospects. PeteAbe does not tend to know about prospects. And I am not going to trust that so and so in the Sox organization is a decent prospect based on what is said at SOSH.
“The official spoke on the condition of anonymity because the Yankees are trying to limit public comments”
I find that a teensy bit funny…”
Me too. Yeesh!
Room full of yes-men”
Another snipe at the yankees
No, Sam. I firmly believe that most all of the people who work in the front office of big-league teams are “yes men” to the owners. Just like Lucchino is to Henry.
RS fanbase. How do you have any idea what the Angels were willing to offer A-Rod? They never made an offer and were never really given a chance to.
“The Angels wouldn’t spend $28m on a player they needed (arod) but will spend $25m on a pitcher they really don’t?”
Where did you get that one?
Lucchino doesn’t need to be a yes man to anyone, as he’s a partner.
And it’s not hard at all for me to believe that it’s Hank’s call. How do I know? Or you? I mean, I’m sure it’s nice to think that Brian has his fingerprints all over whatever, but all the world has heard re: the Yankees in the past month and a half have come from Hank’s mouth, not Brian’s. So either Hank is the new PR guy/owner of the Yankees or is sending a message as to who is steering the ship.
Sam – I actually let that one – about yes-men – pass.
Brad – Posts have been deleted that neither crossed a line (and I did read that policy, a few times actually) nor used profanity. And it was not even mentioned that there was something missing (like an editor note I have seen in other forums). It was there and then it was not.
I am trying very hard to be a good member of this community because I enjoy discussions about baseball and the Sox perspective is a big part of why being a Yankee fan is so much fun these days. I also know well how bad some discussions can turn on the internet – things that people would never say if they were face to face. But I do not understand what I have done to be treated as an outcast apart from being new and opinated.
But I have also seen lines crossed and profanities used by others (regulars, I guess) and nothing is said or deleted. What gives?
Says yankee fans. But I don’t think it’s a reach to conclude that Arod went looking for similar money in California but his pricetag was rejected.
//And I am not going to trust that so and so in the Sox organization is a decent prospect based on what is said at SOSH.//
I don’t know why not – if the poster backs it up with the appropriate analysis, there’s no reason it shouldn’t be valid. I mean, if the person is just saying “oh this guy’s amazing I saw him play with the Spinners one time” that’s one thing, but it’s something very different if they’re busting out pages of stats and biomechanical analyses. I don’t think we should discard that info just because it’s posted at SoSH.
“Room full of yes-men”
Another snipe at the yankees”
Brad, maybe in person it would be easy to judge if you are joking around, but in this medium, sometimes your comments, like the one I complained about earlier, just don’t come across as humor – indeed, they often sound nasty, condescending and mean spirited.
When humor is always at the other guy’s expense, it ceases to be funny, IMO.
I think its plenty of a reach RS. You stated it as a definitive fact. You and nobody else around here knows if any negotiations between Boras and the Angels took place.
So your rational for why arod and boras sought free agency is… what?
Brad we havent heard anything come from Theo’s mouth over the last few months. Does that mean he isnt making the baseball decisions?
Just because the guy talks alot it doesnt mean he is making the baseball decisions. I think its easier to imagine that he has conversations with his baseball people, who tell them the way their going and he simply comments on it in the press. Which as far as I can tell hasnt really hurt the yankees in any way up to this point in any of their talks.
RS please refer to the ad nasueum conversation about A-Rod on this site for the last month. I have zero desire to rehash it now with you.
Sure, Jackie, but then I want to see that evidence for myself rather than simply trusting a citation from SOSH. Post the evidence rather than the conclusion.
That is where my small sample is better than no sample logic comes from. Any one can say anything. But the numbers force them to back it up. Without stats, the opinions are just that. That is where I love baseball. The stats greatly help us to settle things, much better than simply saying: Joe D is the best CF ever OR Jim Rice belongs in the HOF.
Of course, bigger samples are always better. But simply shouting small sample does not refute an argument. Only more evidence can do that.
And sure someone could say: Buchholz will throw 100 no-hitters next year! But then we just have to sit back and let the evidence determine the validity of the claim. Some evidence is always more informative than no evidence and more evidence is always better than some evidence.
“Johan Santana to the Red Sox is all but done. Jon Lester, a center fielder, Justin Masterson and Ryan Kalish are the package. More details now.”
“http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=6970” Link via SOSH
Sam, the last month hasn’t seen the Red Sox spend nearly a half a billion dollars. I’m nearly sure that if the Sox did in fact do this, we would have heard from Theo a time or two. Maybe a press conference or two.
Also, the twins just DFA’ed someone from their forty man roster (EEI), so clearly they are making room for someone they’re getting ready to add.
Will Carroll and Baseball Prospectus say the deal is “all but done”. Lester, Masterson, Kalish and “a center fielder”.
Gol dern it, Paul. I think I’m on it, but you’re totally faster than me.
That deal’s actually better than giving up Lowrie, if true.
Just my $.02 on Melky and Crisp – Crisp is clearly the better defender. Although I don’t think most defensive metrics effectively measure a good arm in the OF, mostly because while they measure assists, they don’t really have a way of measuring “respect” from baserunners – i.e. runners being afraid to take an extra bag on guys like Ichiro or Vlad. I’m not really sure how significant an impact that would have, but it’s got to have *some* value.
That said, I do still think range is more important, and Crisp’s (one of the top three or four in the league) is significantly better than Melky’s (slightly above average). I think Crisp’s range was a reasonably significant reason why the Sox pitchers, who are mostly of the flyball variety, were so effective this year.
As others have noted, Melky is already a better with bat, and likely to improve, whereas Crisp is not. Personally I think it’s a wash.
“The Angels wouldn’t spend $28m on a player they needed (arod) but will spend $25m on a pitcher they really don’t?”
Where did you get that one?”
Scoscia was quoted as saying AROD was too expensive…
Unless the center fielder is Ellsbury.
The Twins have just outrighted a player from their 40 man roster. They have 38 players on the 40 and would have 37 when Santana comes off.
I can’t believe you guys are having this argument. It isn’t a tiny bit hilarious to imagine Hank, who in the last two months has made a couple disastrous “public comments” turning around and berating a meek and mild staff to shut their faces (note: nowhere in that ‘yes men’ comment was Cashman’s name mentioned)? It’s a FUNNY MENTAL PICTURE. And as far as I can tell, nobody was suggesting that it actually happened.
I mean, did everyone here treat Theo’s departure in a gorilla suit a couple years ago with the utmost respect and seriousness? I think the stress of this whole Santana thing is damaging our senses of humor.
Im nervous abotu Ryan Kalish being added to, presumably, the Lester Version of the Offer. He’s a good prospect and five people is alot. Still, as I said in the All Nihgter thread, outfield is the one place we’re locked up for a few years with Drew and Ellsbury and I feel Mannys option will be picked up. He’s Manny freakin Rameriz after all. That gives plenty of time to develope replacements.
Then don’t rehash it. I have my thoughts about why arod left (and why he returned), and based on those thoughts give the probability of Santana going to the Angels zero chance.
I agree on the humor statement, Andrew. Those barbs do not just come from Brad either. But they do seem to come from Sox fans more often than Yankee fans here. Of course, we get in our occasional poke at the Monkey in the suit, the Fat Man who needs weight clauses, and the $150 million non-uber-team. The difference is that those seem much more infrequent, to me at least and as a newbie.
On my lunch break btw. Instead of eating, Im here!
We won the World Series this year.
People, stop taking *everything* so seriously.
Or maybe the YFs are just more sensitive/have more to poke fun at/take your pick. ;)
Now I’m going to go wail and gnash my teeth over “A centerfielder”.
Yeah. If Lowrie’s out of the deal, I bet it’s Ellsbury.
If Kalsih is in the deal I cant see Ellsbury being part of it at all. I think Kalish was a sweatner to get the Twins to back off the Lester and Ellsbury demands.
Aaaand I JUST read that linekd Prospectus article. Kalish instead of Lowrie sounds AWESOME to me.
It HAS to be Coco. We’re not giving up Lester AND Ellsbury. Thats ABSURD
Apparently Twins DFA-ed someone, resulting in a 38-man roster. A prelude?
Not to mention giving upp Ells AND Kalish serverly damages our future outfield. Theo isn’t liekly to do that – I hope
would they have to DFA him before the trade is finalized? I assume the trade isnt made til after the 72 hr window
I don’t remember the Final Minutes of Dice ebign this stressful. Hell I dont remember any off-season minutes being this stressful. At least with Lowell, you just sat and waited.. not desperatly clawed for news.
Email me, please.
You’re like trying to find Osama, man.
Dio, is that a liquid lunch you’re having?
“Scoscia was quoted as saying AROD was too expensive…”
Scocia’s not the GM, so I doubt he has much say in the financial dealings of the Angels
So it goes from:
Lester + Crisp + Masterson + Lowrie
Lester + Crisp + Masterson + Kalish?
Sorry, but that doesn\’t make much sense.
I hesitate to jump into the fray since I mostly lurk, except when a “GOD BLESS COCO” was required last season and Atheose wasn’t here to do it. But my line of work is heavily dependent on statistics and the whole idea of “statistically significant” is because – in fact – small samples really aren’t better than no sample at all. Extrapolating a conclusion from a small data sample almost always leads to huge mistakes. What you CAN learn from a small data sample are things that are not statistical like pitch speed, right or left-handedness, etc. Whew, got that off my chest. The math rant is over. Now, I’ll just march on back to my little desk and little computer and crunch more numbers….
I dunno, about 10 million sox fans were watching online tracking of Henry’s plane as it crossed the country…. we were so stressed we had to know the exact location of the damn plane lol
// Jon Lester, a center fielder, Justin Masterson and Ryan Kalish are the package. //
That’s a strange way of putting it. If the CF is JEll, I’m friggin’ steamed.
It does if there’s only one team bidding
Dio – Unless they\’re planning to sign a CF? Or have another trade in mind?
Wait, are you guys talking about FOIL?
“Yeah. If Lowrie’s out of the deal, I bet it’s Ellsbury.”
Please God, let it be so!!!
I have to leave for work in 10 minutes.
Oh! Brad! crud! I’ll email you as soon as I get back from work man. I’m not devotign any bandwith to anythign but the constant refresh of about 10 different Baseball News sites
// We won the World Series this year. //
Devine, you’ve got to stop living in the distant past.
Its about long term, Mike. Ells and Kalish are long term solutions since they are under our control for a while. Givign up both is a horrible idea.
Yeah, but when they got on the plane, we knew the deal was going to be signed.
Agreed, Hudson. That’s a lot to lose if it’s Ellsbury and Lester. They better be getting someone back, which I would imagine they are, since Minny only cleared one spot from their roster.
Just as a quick aside, SoSH is mostly biased. It’s a Red Sox fan site, for heck’s sake!
But there are a number of posters who are just unbelievable with their sabermetric analysis, and this analysis is pretty gearheadedly unbiased, sometimes purely compilations of interesting information. One of the regular posters at SoSH, Eric Van, was even hired by the Red Sox based on his sabermetric work at the site. It’s just wrong to dismiss the work of some of these posters because the site is for supporters of a specific team.
An example thread is here:
I’d rather give up Lowrie, Crips and Kalish than Kalish and Ells
to add: that above thread, frankly, isn’t even that interesting a thread, it’s more just compilation of data. But some of the work is just fantastic.
I mean, I’ve said it before that I definitely make the deal with re: to Lester and Ellsbury as I don’t think it’s over the top for the best pitcher in the game, but it would burn a little bit. Also, good CF are everywhere. Aces are not.
Yankee fans would really like for it to be Ellsbury, though. This way, Cashman doesn’t look like such a idiot for not making the move.
It is a nice idea in theory rootbeer, but:
1) You have to say what is too small of a sample.
2) People are always making outlandish claims. I will always prefer some data to no data.
3) So long as you are always willing to revise your claims with more data, the effects of small samples can be minimized.
As a statistician, I know you have to acknowledge the validity of those assumptions.
Ellsbury with Lester would be giving up a lot more than just Jacoby’s production. It would mean continuing to pay Coco $10 million/year, money the Sox would need to offset the giant payout to Santana.
Ok NO ONE else is reportign BP’s info. I’m skeptical now.
I need to go back to work, dammit. I’l lbe checking on my cell as best I can. *sigh*
Please nto Lester and Ellsbury. Please god.
Hudson, you’re being facetious right? Coco makes $5 million.
Doesn’t “all but done” technically mean “not done”?
It amuses me that people think Lester+Ellsbury+Kalish is too much, but Hughes+Melky+Horne+Jackson was perfectly fine.
Oh, and… it’s Johan Freakin’ Santana!
Because it ISNT Lester+Ellsbury+Kalish
Ellsbury + Lester + Masterson + Kalish + a frillion dollars just seems like too much, period. I know it’s Johan Freakin Santana, but still.
“Kalish tends to be a very popular player with fans, and he himself grew up a Red Sox fan.”
A New Jersey Sox fan. What happened to you, Trisk!?
Sorry, Andrew, you’re right — I meant $10 million for the remainder of his contract (actually a little higher with options/buyouts/escalators). But the point is the same: Ellsbury is essentially free compared to Crisp.
Yeah YM, that’s some twisted logic
There is no way Ellsbury isn’t in that deal. I’m just saying it now, and preparing myself to hear it. I’m not upset by it because I can see the result, but I did like the thought of not losing him or Buchholz while getting back the best pitcher in baseball.
It amuses me that people think Lester+Ellsbury+Kalish is too much, but Hughes+Melky+Horne+Jackson was perfectly fine.
But are they the same people? This would seem to me to be an important distinction.
What happened to you, Trisk!?
Quinnipiac University. AKA: New York Central.
Dio – I agree. But if they sign Rowand or Jones and plan to keep Crisp around for the next two years and picking up the Manny options, they will not have much of a need for another OF before then.
SF – To be clear, I am not dismissing their work product, just an empty citation to SOSH (someone at SOSH said …). If people want to do the hard work of posting the evidence here, I am interested in reading it. Still, it is hard to see it as coming from an objective source. I would treat it as I treat any claim – skeptical until I have convinced myself.
// It amuses me that people think Lester+Ellsbury+Kalish is too much, but Hughes+Melky+Horne+Jackson was perfectly fine. //
If the Yankees want to offer Hughes, Melky, Cano, Kennedy and three prospects, they are welcome to Santana.
Very funny, Hudson.
It amuses me that people think Lester+Ellsbury+Kalish is too much, but Hughes+Melky+Horne+Jackson was perfectly fine.
I think the distinction comes from need. The Red Sox are giving up a whole lot for something they don’t need. The Yankees would be giving up a whole lot of what they don’t need for something that they absolutely do need.
Santana to the Sox is gravy, so the players lost has to be measured so. Santana to the Yankees is a necessity, and should be measured accordingly.
//It amuses me that people think Lester+Ellsbury+Kalish is too much, but Hughes+Melky+Horne+Jackson was perfectly fine.//
As Dio noted, you left out a player; adding Masterson makes the two deals equivalent in terms of numbers. But it seems like we all think that Ellsbury > Melky, (since most of us think it would be a fine deal with Coco instead of Ellsbury, and that Coco ~= Melky, discussed above). Plus the Sox arguably have less need for Santana than the Yanks… just seems like too much.
Gammons told ESPNEWS the 5-for-1 was untrue, that Kalish is one of three or four.
I think it should be clear to those of us that didn’t already think this that these baseball beat writers will report anything and everything they are told, without any skepticism.
They are stenographers.
Someone should do an Edward Tufte-ish diagram of all the supposed offers and exchanges that were considered, close, imminent, off the table, on the table, up a butt, etc. It would be pretty cool, I think.
Hey, if Sox don’t like it, they can walk away! Like you said, they don’t *need* Santana. Or does it mean they should get JS for a bag of balls just because their need is less?
“we all think that Ellsbury > Melky, (since most of us think it would be a fine deal with Coco instead of Ellsbury, and that Coco ~= Melky, discussed above).”
Time will tell on that one.
“2) People are always making outlandish claims. I will always prefer some data to no data.”
I think you’re totally missing RB’s point. If you flip a coin twice, and it lands heads both times, the “some data” prediction would be that it will always come up heads. Or at least usually. It’s a false indicator.
And everyone remember the one, true, golden rule:
Whatever Steve Phillips says, the opposite is the truth.
Headed home, guys.
Have an excellent night to all.
// They are stenographers. //
Even more than stenographers, they are attention whores. And right now, any snippet about Santana, however flimsy, gets a writer attention.
Oooh did Steve Phillips chime in yet?
Phillips just said on ESPN, and I quote:
“I think that George Bush is going to defy the odds and win reelection to the White House in 2008”.
Seriously, how does this guy have a job?!
YM – I don’t think anyone is saying that the Sox should get Santana for less because they need him less, just that they shouldn’t necessarily be prepared to offer as much.
And I know that Ellsbury > Melky isn’t empirical fact or anything. It just seemed like we were saying that Melky and Coco were equivalent or nearly equivalent, but that we (SFs) all like the deal much more if “A centerfielder” is Coco.
“”we all think that Ellsbury > Melky”
and isn’t that opinion based on a really small sample size?
Not saying that it won’t end up being true, but can we at least see how the guy does in his 3rd or 4th time around the league, when the pitchers make adjustments to him before making such a pronouncement?
Angels not in on Santana
By Gordon Edes, Globe Staff December 4, 07 05:54 PM
Angels GM Tony Reagins just told reporters that there was no truth to Angels being involved in Johan Santana negotiations. Said he never talked to Twins
Steve Phillips is saying that the Royals and the Pirates now appear to be the front-runners for Johan.
Edes says Angels’ GM says the Angels are not involved in Santana negotiations–never talked to Twins.
Olney says: Angels denying that they’re in talks for Santana. Which directly contradicts the previous entry on the ESPN meetings blog.
“Phillips just said on ESPN, and I quote:
I think that George Bush is going to defy the odds and win reelection to the White House in 2008”
No Way!!!! WOW
Man, I am always behind one of the lead SFs.
Also, Steve Phillips reports that Santana is likely going to play in Japan in 2008.
//Steve Phillips is saying that the Royals and the Pirates now appear to be the front-runners for Johan.//
Thank god for his NTC then. ;)
Phillips just said on CNN:
“Bernie Williams is the greatest guitarist since Wes Montgomery”
Wow, do folks really disbelieve sports reporting that much? I mean…I’m trying to stand in their shoes. An official tells you something; maybe you think its wrong. Maybe you think its wrong enough that you quote it with hesitation all around the quotation marks, but what if you are wrong? What if it was the first sign of a change to come?
I think sports reporters are forced into a position where they have to report everything they hear. Journalism only requires you to quote things from verified sources, not to deduce whether those sources know what they are talking about. Over time, I’d suspect that sources that constantly lie are listened to less, but they are no less official and no less verifiable.
Tyrel – And missed the other assumptions. If you flip a coin twice, you can\’t expect the conclusions to hold once you or someone else flips it four times. Make a claim based on the evidence at hand, then be prepared to revise that claim when and if more evidence comes in.
Perfect example is Ellsbury vs. Melky. Those of us that care about age, think it\’s very close to call. But others are putting a lot of faith on a very small body evidence. As Andrew just said, time will tell.
Santana IS playing Japan in 2008. In fact, he is HUGE in Japan. “Oye Como Va” has been a big seller at the Japanese iTunes store.
hesitate to jump into the fray since I mostly lurk, except when a “GOD BLESS COCO” was required last season and Atheose wasn’t here to do it.
I’m late to this conversation, but Thanks RBF!
Globe says Angels GM Regan denies any involvement with Santana.
Wow, way late on that one. I’m out the office door anyway. Dang. Was hoping this would be resolved before now.
The Angels denial means they tried and didnt get. They are denying so it doesnt look like they lost out on 2 major trades in 2 days
*starts humming LoGoLoYoVa*
Damn you, Remy.
“Santana IS playing Japan in 2008. In fact, he is HUGE in Japan.”
BTW, I destroyed all my Santana lp’s when I found out he was a sox fan…
To be fair, the reporting of this story — excepting this Angels business — has been largely accurate. The first reported deal, reported by a “little birdie” has thus far stood up under scrutiny.
The names and numbers of players have changed slightly, but the reporters have gotten this one right so far — again, except for ESPN’s and Heyman’s jumping on the Angels bandwagon.
Buster Olney on espn.com: The Angels are denying that they’re in on Johan Santana.
That makes sense, Sam…especially since Weaver involved in a deal for Santana didn’t make much sense (to me, anyway).
Here’s why this deal sucks for Yankee fans:
1. The best team in the game gets better and becomes practically unbeatable in a playoff series provided there are no injuries to Santana, Beckett, Daisuke, Schilling.
2. We (Yankees) don’t get any better.
3. The Sox (reportedly) would not be losing anyone of immidiate importance. (And please spare me the Jon Lester is going to win 15 games stuff. Point blank Buchholz will be the better pitcher) Losing Crisp means nothing. By all accounts they were going to shop Crisp regardless in order to free up PT for Jacoby. If the Sox were going to get Santana, the shining light COULD have been them losing Jacoby. But instead we have this…
I am prepared to take all the flack you guys want to give me about not being 100% Yankee, but if this trade goes through without Jacoby OR Buchholz Theo Epstein is a genius. The Red Sox FO are brilliant, they run a very effecient team. Going after players they want and getting them. (Schilling, Daisuke, Beckett, Johan)
From a personal stand point I cannot wait to see what all of these “You Can’t Include ______ because he could be a star someday” fans have to say in June, July and August. It’s great to think you have patience, but it’s much much more difficult to actually have it.
//The Angels denial means they tried and didnt get. //
Normally I would think so too, but it seemed like the consensus was that they had a stellar package to offer. Maybe they just didn’t want to give up what it was going to take, but that wouldn’t necessarily mean they ‘lost’.
And speaking of that Other deal, any more news about Cabrera?
//I am prepared to take all the flack you guys want to give me about not being 100% Yankee, but if this trade goes through without Jacoby OR Buchholz Theo Epstein is a genius.//
I totally agree. ;) But I’m increasingly worried that this trade is NOT going to go through without Jacoby, at least.
ESPN’s reporting that Miguel Cabrera and D-Train are going to Detroit, for 4-pitchers and 2 other prospects.
I disagree on the FO’s brilliance, John. They made what they felt to be a fair offer, and the Twins took(?) it. The Yankees also made what *they* thought to be a fair offer, and the Twins rejected it.
Cabrera and Willis?!
Oh wow, that team impoved a bit, if true. Look out, Cleveland! Look out, everybody!
Deal isn’t done yet, deal isn’t done yet.
Thanks Atheose! Also: Holy shit. If there’s one thing you can say about the Marlins, it’s that they really know how to raze a team and start over.
The Marlins love to get rid of players when they reach their prime.
Not to say D-Train is in his prime, but you know what I mean.
Link for the Cabrera/Dtrain thing?
The Sox have been selective as to who they go after. They wanted Schilling, they got him. They wanted Beckett, they got him. They wanted Daisuke, they got him. Now they wanted Johan, they got him. They don’t throw money at every shiny object hoping things pan out (Giambi, Brown, Unit, Pavano etc…) If you do not want to agree on brilliance, you must agree that they have been much more effecient and effective in getting who THEY want. (Yes I know about Clement and Lugo, everyone makes mistakes)
Yeah, talk about a mega-deal. If true, this leaves Angels and Dodgers with the chips to target Santana still…
So does anyone else think this Tigers deal means the Yankees are going to have a tough time grabbing the wildcard next year? Cleveland has a GREAT young team, and the Tigers are now strong again.
Also, Joba Chamberlain was named “Sports Illustrated’s NEXT player”
John, don’t forget Renteria…and Gagne…and maybe Drew ;-) I do agree with the general sentiment, however.
Sorry Jackie, I saw the Cabrera/D-Train deal on ESPN (TV).
Mike – YF. See, I didn’t say I was a statistician – you concluded that from the single piece of data that I work with statistics. I have a couple of EE degrees and I work in fiber optic transmission where most of our conclusions are based on gathering statistically significant amounts of data and make conclusions. Your suggestion that you just continue to revise your conclusions every time you get more data makes no sense to me. If you make two coin tosses that both end up heads, the only statistically valid conclusion that you can make is that the coin does indeed have a side with heads on it. Period.
Sigh, this is why I lurk.
WEEI just said the Cabrera/Willis deal to Detroit is done.
Wait Jackie, here it is:
– 1. The best team in the game gets better and becomes practically unbeatable in a playoff series provided there are no injuries to Santana, Beckett, Daisuke, Schilling. –
I simply do not agree with what will be a very popular opinion. The Yankees have proven that Santana, Beckett, Dice-K, and Schilling are hittable and beatable. And me, I am very much looking forward to the games.
– 2. We (Yankees) don\’t get any better. –
This is next to impossible to evaluate until the performance of Hughes and Melky and anyone else that would have been lost can be properly evaluated. Like I said, the 1998 Yankees improved because they did not lose Bernie.
Number #3 can not be evaluated until we know who they lost. Ellsbury and Lester (if that is the package) could easily combine to be more valuable on paper than even Santana, and it wouldn\’t take outstanding seasons from either of them.
The Tigers and Marlins are hammering out the final details on an eight-player trade that would send third baseman Miguel Cabrera and left-handed starter Dontrelle Willis to Detroit for a left-hander Andrew Miller, outfielder Cameron Maybin and four other prospects.
Well, they (we?) haven’t got Santana yet. And I don’t think it’s necessarily true that the Sox have been more successful – Contreras is one example, and I believe they preferred Pavano to Clement. I know there were a couple trading deadline things this year that didn’t pan out, too. I think the Sox have been lucky in that a lot of the deals that didn’t work out for them turned out to work in their favor, or at least not hurt them… there’s a lot of revisionist history that comes along with success.
NP, I was just looking at ESPN.com and couldn’t find anything. Thanks for the link!
Wow. The National League continues to bleed…
Well said, Jackie. Well said.
– Your suggestion that you just continue to revise your conclusions every time you get more data makes no sense to me. –
Well then, the scientific method must make no sense to you.
John, I don’t know why you are assuming this deal is done.
I do get a bit tired of the Pavano thing. At the time of the trade Pavano was the hot pitching prospect. At the time of the Giambi thing, he had just won the AL MVP.
Unit? Brown? Those i’d agree were risky trades/deals at the time. Unit was old and the back problems had already presented themselves. Plus, his personality was well-defined and NYC didn’t figure to react well to his demeanor. Brown had burned out several teams before.
But can we agree that Pavano was highly-touted by many folks, not just the Yankees and that the Giambi trade was read as “the first time a reigning MVP switched teams.”?
Like Brian Billick said last night: lets be careful about “the revisionist history here.” Its one thing to look back in hindsight and say “that exploded into a shitload of f*cked-up!” but its entirely different to look back and say that it was considered a good deal at the time.
(the Sox/Santana deal, not the Cabrera one)
That tigers deal is nuts!
Their lineup is going to be unreal, it could easily put up better offensive numbers than the yankees and the sox. They are completely emptying their farm for this trade, i guess the taste of success has them hungry and they want to capitalize on the window.
Carlos, I think you’re misreading me – I was saying that the Sox *WANTED* Pavano and lost out on him to the Yankees. This turned out to not be a terrible thing (although getting Clement instead wasn’t much better). I just brought it up in disagreeing with John that the Sox FO always gets what they want.
are completely emptying their farm for this trade
Yeah, but both Cabrera and Willis are young, so those are two spots they don’t have to worry about and they can replenish their system in the meantime. And, if Cabrera eats half of Michigan, now he can just DH!
I wonder what kind of contract MC will end up getting.
// The best team in the game gets better and becomes practically unbeatable in a playoff series provided there are no injuries //
Now YFs know how SFs have felt over the past 5-6 years, as the Yankees added one All-Star after another to their roster (sometimes midseason to replace another All-Star who got injured, viz Sheff/Abreu).
On the other hand, look what all those acquisitions have yielded the Yankees. Hmmm.
Is the NL becoming the farm system for the AL? The leagues become even more unbalanced after that trade. Wow!
Jackie please don’t tell me you are counting Contreras as a win? I wish that’s one you guys would have won!
Just to be more precise, I am referring to the NEW Red Sox FO, not the old regime.
Mike it’s more then a popular opinion it’s the truth. In a playoff series which team in the AL matches up with Beckett, Sanatana, Schilling and Daisuke, with Beckett and Santana going twice if needed? When you talk about the Yankees and Red Sox you have to talk playoffs. Sure over the course of the season the Yankees could sneak ahead of the Sox if they get some breaks, but come October when they are marching those 4 out to the mound in a 7 game series I don’t see how anyone could say that’s NOT nearly unbeatable. Josh Beckett has proven with his under 2.00 ERA in the postseason that he is among the BEST postseason pitchers of our generation, if not all time. Schilling, regardless of age, comes out everytime he’s needed and wins. Santana, well he just happens to be the best pitcher in the game. So even if he struggles at first under the big lights, I am pretty darn sure he will right the ship eventually. Call it popular, I call it the best rotation, best playoff rotation that any of us have seen.
A nice haul for the Marlins, though. Per Gammons:
The Tigers have won the Miguel Cabrera sweepstakes. Detroit acquired Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis for six players — Cameron Maybin, Andrew Miller, catcher Mike Rabelo and three minor league prospects.
Is it just me, or does it seem like the Tigers just got away with murder? I mean, 6-for-2 is a lopsided deal on the face of it, but those two are Miguel Freakin Cabrera and a respectable-to-awesome starting pitcher, and the six are Cameron Maybin, Andrew Miller, Mike Rabelo and three minor league prospects apparently not close enough to MLB-ready to bother naming. Crazy.
Is Willis in the AL really a sight we’re going to want to witness for a whole year? I sense a bloodbath.
So A-Rod and Cabrera (and to a lesser extent, Torii Hunter) appear to be off the table. If Santana is taken soon (by whoever), what are the big names left out there?
Let me say, the standards of failure here for the Yankees are actually quite modest. Santana will have to be his usual excellent self each year of his year contract (cause even one or two years lost at $20 million is a very big waste) AND the Yankees that would have been traded away must prove themselves to be utter junk.
If only Hughes and Horne end up being league average innings eaters, that is worth 10 million each a year (based on market prices).
If only Melky and Ajax turn into .850 OPS outfielders, that is worth 13 – 18 million each on the open market.
And mix and match how you\’d like. If only one of those players turns into anything, it is a loss, but not a huge one.
Of course, if Hughes turns into a Cy Young or Ajax turns into an MVP, that is priceless.
Some will say it is a loss to the Yankees if Santana leads the Sox to another ring or three. But I do not think so. That is a zero sum game which means I would not have derived any enjoyment from a Yankee team that does well. And if they are playing that \”unbeatable\” team close, then call me satisfied. After all, I already have vivid memories of the Yankees winning four world championships. It is okay if the wealth gets spread around.
//Jackie please don’t tell me you are counting Contreras as a win? I wish that’s one you guys would have won!//
Well yeah, but at the time it was a huge coup for the Yankees. That’s just what I mean about the revisionist history…
“And missed the other assumptions.”
“1) You have to say what is too small of a sample.”
No you don’t. It’s a “know it when I see it” situation.
“2) People are always making outlandish claims. I will always prefer some data to no data.”
The danger is when you make an outlandish claim using the small sample size as evidence, because someone might be dumb enough to actually believe you.
“3) So long as you are always willing to revise your claims with more data, the effects of small samples can be minimized.”
Except when you’re taking a certain action (or advocating such action) on the basis of a small sample size, because by the time you turn around to revise your data, you’ve already screwed up.
“Perfect example is Ellsbury vs. Melky. Those of us that care about age, think it\’s very close to call. But others are putting a lot of faith on a very small body evidence.”
I fail to see how one year makes much of a difference in comparing Melky and Ellsbury. And SSS be damned, Ellsbury was a better prospect than Melky a year ago.
Carlos, Pavano was not acquired via trade.
Secondly, it’s not revisionist history. The Sox have been far more effecient as to who they went after and landed then the Yankees. Clement, Gagne, etc… don’t even come close to the amount of awful contracts and trades we have made over the past 7 seasons.
SF, it’s purely to jinx the trade of course! LOL I am kidding, I am just speaking hypothetically. I know nothing more then you.
Let’s look at it this way, ignoring the players who will have no role on the 2008 squad:
2007 Red Sox roster minus Coco Crisp and John Lester plus Jacoby Ellsbury and Johan Santana.
2007 Red Sox roster minus Jacoby Ellsbury plus Johan Santana.
Does someone really think that the Sox are worse off? That they are the same?
There are no guarantees in baseball, that goes without saying. Great teams sometimes don’t win. But let’s not even call the Sox “great”. Let’s just look at the differences between the 2007 team and a hypothetical 2008 team based on the reported deals. How are either of these scenarios not an improvement, talent-wise, for the Red Sox?
2007 Red Sox roster minus Coco Crisp and John Lester plus Jacoby Ellsbury and Johan Santana.
You know how I know that this is a wildly successful improvement? I just orgasmed at the thought of it.
And Mike, you’re kidding yourself if you think the Yankees haven’t lost out here.
Man, SF, I almost shook with anticipation when I saw “2007 Red Sox minus Coco, Lester plus Ellsbury, Santana”. I don’t know if I’ve ever thought about it in quite those terms…
Lost short-term, hopefully won long-term. I’m looking forward to the games!
//”1) You have to say what is too small of a sample.”
No you don’t. It’s a “know it when I see it” situation.//
It all depends what your cutoff is. The larger the sample size, the more certainty you can assign to your prediction (though you have to take into account a lot more factors when assessing ballplayers than coinflips – for example, the percent of time a coin will land heads up is not affected by the number of times it is flipped, while age has a lot to do with a hitter’s success… but I digress.)
How much uncertainty you’re willing to accept is up to you… obviously you can be a lot more certain about a pitcher’s quality after a couple seasons than a couple games, but a half season should give a semblance of ‘real’ performance.
From Pete Abe:
“Meanwhile. Joe Girardi just spoke to us for 25 minutes. He revealed nothing about the state of the Johan Santana talks. But he did say the Yankees would use a six-man rotation and that the rotation as it stands today is good enough to win the World Series.”
A 6-man rotation! Wow!
Seriously, I can\’t see Willis doing well, and not so well to give up Miller. But Cabrera is a very nice haul for that Tigers team. Now they have to re-sign him long-term.
John – If the trade goes through, the Yankees are big underdogs. I actually like that new twist in the rivalry. And given what we\’ve seen of Beckett and Dice-K (and Schilling recently) against the Yankees, and Santana in Fenway, I look forward to the games. That is all I am going to say now.
Carlos – Unit and Brown were actually coming off of very good to excellent NL seasons. There was no way to distinguish what Schilling was doing and would do from those two. It just did not turn out to favor the Yankees. The decision making was not wrong there though. Did they give up any one in those trades you wish they had not?
Remember Beckett in the last game against the Yankees (and Wang) this season? I sure do!
Well said, Jackie.
By the way, the Tigers get Cabrera, but Maybin is going to be really, really good.
Beckett’s last game, not the last Yanks/Sox game (that was the one where Ortiz was the last out in a Yankees victory).
well that six man rotation is HUGE news. very interesting.
A six-man rotation is huge. I love it.
Just as an example, and if you believe WARP, Wang and Cano have been combining for more wins each year than Santana since they came up. And based on how they were rated back then, they would have been throw-ins with a Hughes Grade A type prospect for Santana.
Devine – so one game now matters? Even with that game, the dude had an ERA of 4.39 against the Yankees in his one excellent AL year. And their lineup hasn\’t changed at all.
//It is okay if the wealth gets spread around. //
Thats hysterical. I don’t know why, but it makes me laugh.
The Sox starting pitching sounds like a freaking fantasy league. I’m not going to play the “little-team-that-could” card and say that I’m going to enjoy my “underdog” Yankees, but I’m mostly happy about the way this turned out. I don’t hate the Red Sox enough to want to see them losers in every area, (YFSF has made me respect the Red Sox and its fans more so than previous years.) and I’m sad that the Yankees didn’t fill a glaring need completely, but there are a few things that i’m very happy about.
1. The New New York Yankees. This offseasons has given us a picture of the nascent New Guard of the Yankees. What have we learned? They are hard-liners. They had an idea of what they could give up for Santana and they appeared not to budge on that when the Twins asked for more. Some would call that stubborn and irresponsible, but I think that level of discipline needs to good management.
We can argue about their evaluation of players, but I take a certain satisfaction in the idea that they have a system of evaluation in place and they are following it. You can get better evaluators over time, but when the FO shows that it ignores those evaluators, then the system is inherently flawed.
Recall, the previous era, where Steinbrenner over-ruled Cashman’s desire for Vlad by hiring Sheff. Cashman was hired to evaluate and think long-term, and the Boss didn’t care. The decisions re: Santana seem to have been an oganizational decision, not the power plays of the past. Obviously I’m not in the room with these folks, but the reporting indicates a certain solidarity in thinking. The Old Regime would have sold the farm for Santana, even if just to make a splash in the back pages. I can imagine that Cashman cares more about the youth movement than Hank does, but its possible to have that dichotomy work in a push/pull feedback type of way…as long as every one listens to every one else. And here it seems that the listening happened and the organization moved with a singular focus.
Also, when A-Rod came back to them and asking about a deal similar to what they had offered before, they opened their eyes and worked it out even if it contradicted their previous statements. Then they rewarded him with “historical incentives.” That projects a sign that if you play ball with the FO, they’ll take care of you.
2. The youth movement seems a bit confirmed.
There seems to be a strong focus of this organization to develop from within. The fact that the trade hinged in part on the Yankees refusing to give up prospects that had never been in the league before implies that the Yankees think highly of those folks. I love the idea that there are players in the minors that are part of the Yankees future plans. I love that the Yankees HAVE future plans. They could all fall to shit, but it speaks well of an organization not panicking and thinking long-term.
3. Hank is freaking entertaining! I can’t imagine the Yankees without some craziness on the top. He seems to respect his baseball people more than the Boss, maybe because he learned at the knee of many of those folks in an esablished organization and doesn’t have the outside vibe that the Boss never lost. But even with that, he likes being loud and abrasive, or at least he doesn’t care if he comes off that way. I find that charming in a “i wouldn’t want to be his friend, but he’s a fun owner” way.
Miller may already be >>> Willis
Have to think the Marlins took less simply to be out from both of their “big” financial “burdens”. Mike Rabelo = nothing.
Good news for the AL Central? Dontrelle Willis AND the Tigers have Rick Porcello (sp?) and absolutely nothing else in terms of prospects left.
Six man rotation is CRAZY. I love it just on principal.
This thread keeps crashing my browser. Maybe it’s a sign for…something.
Three cheers for Girardi, for even considering the six-man rotation. Torre would never have gone for that, I don’t think.
“Even with that game, the dude had an ERA of 4.39 against the Yankees in his one excellent AL year.”
“Even with that game, the dude’s 4.39 ERA against the Yankees in his one excellent AL year was 1.6 runs better than the ML average.”
This is what PeteAbe now says:
But [General Joe] did say the Yankees would not use a six-man rotation and that the rotation as it stands today is good enough to win the World Series.
Maybe there was a typo he corrected?
I think the Marlins did very well for themselves. Dontrelle is Oooooverated. Miller is going to be a hell of a pitcher (#1, or #2 at worst) and Maybin will be a star. The Marlins did exactly what they wanted to do, they got back cheap young talent for what could be very expensive young talent. If you are going to dump, as the Marlins did, this isn’t a bad deal to take at all!
If the 6-man thing is accurate, I wonder if that means it’ll be six no matter what, even if someone is injured. As in, if Mussina has to skip two starts, do they replace him in the rotation, or just collapse to a five-man in the meantime. If it’s the former, that is really interesting.
In other news, I have to extend a hearty thank you to the Florida Marlins, trying to keep the Mets out of the basement next year. I owe you a Coke, Florida!
Also, for the Tigers, where do you play Cabrera? He wants to play 3B, sure, but Inge at 3B is equivalent to Crisp in CF by most defensive statistics. Would he move back to LF? And just how much would this tax Curtis Granderson, who given a combination of range and arm may have been the best CF in baseball last season?
Mike – Sorry, i meant transactions as a whole, not specifically trade/free agent signings. I know the idea of giving someone up versus just paying money for the guy makes a difference; I was speaking more generally.
I recall during the Brown talk thinking about his stay at the Dodgers and the injury problems. I, in those hopeful days, believed that you should only trade/sign young players or players in their prime. I remember Brown as an oft-injured, occasionally great, slightly surly pitcher. At the time, I thought it was a big of a risk. I won’t go out and say flat out no, but I had reservations.
I had the same idea with Unit, except he had a higher pedigree. I felt in both cases that we were getting the late stages of a career. Which if it costs ya nothing, or if involves players you don’t think highly of, is an easy deal to make. You lose relatively nothing and you might gain alot. But I wasn’t confident about the trade.
With Giambi and Pavano, I was confident. Pavano had one great year in florida, but he was young. That group of marlin pitchers were supposed to be good. There was potential, and it cost us only money. Giambi was similar, he was big-bashing guy supposedly in his prime. We were a team that never had someone hit more than 30HRs a year and this guy promised to give up some pop. I felt confident then.
The point is Tyrel, if the Yankees are scoring three to four runs (or more) off Beckett, they have a very good shot of winning that game.
Carlos – Again, read that Daily News interview of Hank. He has much more appreciation for young talent than his Dad ever did. Hank IS a living embodiment of the new philosophy. In an off-season in which the Sox are collecting another ring, the Yankees are in a full-fledged youth movement. I never thought I\’d live to see the day. Meanwhile, let\’s see the rag trolls (e.g., Lupica) criticize this new philosophy. I don\’t think they can – unless all of the prospects turn into dust.
FSP – yeah, what is UP with the Mets? The ESPN reports indicate that they’re not even trying to talk to Haren/Santana/Bedard… and that Milledge trade was just full of WTF. What’s going on?
Lupica will find a way to criticize anything, whether it contradicts something he said last week or not.
“How much uncertainty you’re willing to accept is up to you… obviously you can be a lot more certain about a pitcher’s quality after a couple seasons than a couple games, but a half season should give a semblance of ‘real’ performance.”
The perfect example of the dangers in SSS is Pedroia. Through his first 60 ML games (over 06-07), he was hitting .187. That’s 2/5ths of a season, pretty close to the index of “real performance” you give.
And certainly context has a lot to do with the weight you give to a sample size. One would certainly have to account for Santana’s age and relative inexperience at the time he made a couple of bad relief appearances at Fenway in order to assess whether it is capable of predicting whether he has any real issues with pitching at Fenway.
“if the Yankees are scoring three to four runs (or more) off Beckett, they have a very good shot of winning that game.”
Yankees team ERA, 2007: 4.49
Yankees team ERA versus Red Sox, 2007: 5.39
That\’s lame Tyrel for, at least, two reasons:
1) You want to count all the games the Yankees started Matt Desalvo and Chase Wright?
2) You want to ignore the fact that the Yanks won the season series in spite of that difference?
Jackie – I wish I knew what the Mets were up to; story of my fandom. It would seem that they value more highly the facade of keeping a squeaky clean image than actually fielding a quality club. I wasn’t a big fan of Lo Duca, and Milledge isn’t perfect, but the Mets botched those two riddances so clumsily, they look affected by tunnel vision. I’ve already started congratulating Phillies fans on their 2008 NL East championship.
//The perfect example of the dangers in SSS is Pedroia. Through his first 60 ML games (over 06-07), he was hitting .187. That’s 2/5ths of a season, pretty close to the index of “real performance” you give.//
Yeah, the “half season” thing was arbitrary; I just wanted to pick something shorter than 20 starts but longer than three. Obviously, the more data you have the better, and the closer the context, the better, etc etc… there are always a million caveats.
One thing that I thought was really interesting about Pedroia is that he had a history of starting off cold at every level before tearing it up. A rookie with a different track record might not have been given so long to warm up. But hey, how do we know that Pedroia’s last six months or so weren’t just a fluke? Small sample size and all that. ;)
This thread is up past 300 posts. In less than a day it surpassed the OTHER Santana thread, which was up several days. Sweet jesus I hope Santana gets traded SOMEWHERE tonight.
Interesting tidbit from the Extra Bases blog:
“[Theo’s] session with Boston beat reporters tonight has been pushed back until at least 7 o’clock Eastern time.”
I’m definitely reading way too much into this.
MVN claims a framework for the Santana deal is in place, but I haven’t seen it anywhere else…
“2) You want to ignore the fact that the Yanks won the season series in spite of that difference?”
You want to ignore the fact that the Sox won the Division and the WS in spite of Beckett being only 1.6 ERs better than the league average against the Yanks?
“I’m definitely reading way too much into this.”
You totally are. Jayson Stark is reporting that Theo left his dry cleaning ticket at home, requiring a second trip, and that’s why the session was delayed.*
* 100% made up, and yet not all that dissimilar from hot stove reporting.
FSP, long time no see! Where you been hidin’?
// … cause even one or two years lost at $20 million is a very big waste //
And how much time has Giambi missed during his contract? Matsui? Pavano? Need I go on?
YM – I’ve been sequestered for the past 6 weeks. I work for an off-Broadway theatre company, and we just finished a production this past weekend, one that started the very same day the Sox won the World Series, which now seems eons ago. So I’d been pretty well occupied for a long while now. But I’m back just in time for off-season madness!
By the way, this is what Girardi actually said about the 6-man rotation:
Q. I don’t want to put words in your mouth but what you said a minute ago, are you intimating you could go with a six-man rotation at times during the year, use off-days to give guys extra rest?
JOE GIRARDI: I’m not insinuating we’ll do a six-man rotation, but what I am saying is we’ll watch innings very careful. If people start getting to certain levels, adjustments will have to be made.
Who cares how Giardi is going to puff up his questionable pitching staff, the RS have Johan freaking Santana!
And the fastest leadoff guy in MLB
The Sox don’t have Santana just yet. I’m prepared to find out this whole “imminent” “done deal” is neither, at least for tonight.
They ain’t got Santana yet…not to mention who knows if they’re holding Ellsbury when spring training comes.
Come on, Tyrel – You originally objected to:
\”if the Yankees are scoring three to four runs (or more) off Beckett, they have a very good shot of winning that game.\”
There\’s nothing controversial there, most especially because the Yanks went 2-2 against the Sox in games Beckett started in 2007 (2006 too).
“You want to ignore the fact that the Sox won the Division and the WS in spite of Beckett being only 1.6 ERs better than the league average against the Yanks? ”
You obviously want to ignore the very real possibility that you would’nt have made it to the series if you had faced the yanks in the LCS, smart guy.
taking into account the fact that the yanks owned the sox over the last half of the season, that is
taking into account the fact that the yanks owned the sox over the last half of the season, that is
Without Manny Ramirez and Hideki Okajima. This is all pointless arguing, though, because in the end the Red Sox won it all. Move along.
“I’m very pleased,” Steinbrenner said. “We got Andy Pettitte back, and everything I wanted to accomplish at the beginning of the off-season has happened. We got Pettitte, Rodriguez, Posada and Rivera back. We’ve got our young pitchers. I’m very glad we didn’t have to lose Hughes and Cabrera. Everything is copasetic.”
The Yankees were willing to include starter Jeffrey Marquez in the deal after the Twins backed off their demand for starter Ian Kennedy late Monday night. But other prospects, including starter Alan Horne and outfielder Austin Jackson, remained off-limits.
Notice how Torre is not on that list :)
“Without Manny Ramirez and Hideki Okajima”
and the games you won at the beginning of the year were agaist the likes of chase wright and matt desalvo…
but i agree, we should move on…
More from Tyler:
Steinbrenner added that keeping up with the Red Sox was not enough of a reason to strip the Yankees’ farm system.
“Maybe Boston isn’t at that point, because they obviously worry about what we do, and I don’t blame them,” Steinbrenner said. “Of course we’re always concerned about them, but at the same time, I can’t let that affect what we do. I can’t help what Boston does and what Minnesota does.”
I love the arrogance. He\’s knowledgeable and blunt. Long live the Steinbrenners! I heart Hank!
i wonder how much oakland will demand for haren… anyone think we could get away with the original IPK/melky/+ package they pitched for santana?
nice haul for the Marlins? Please. By the time the players develop Loria will offload them too for fear of losing an arbitration case.
By the way, Andrew, with that handle, I expect you to keep law and order around here :)
nyara, I don’t think so. I think actually there’sa good chance he’ll cost equal if not more interms of a prospect package because more teams will be in on the bidding.
“ice haul for the Marlins? Please. By the time the players develop Loria will offload them too for fear of losing an arbitration case.”
So true, SF. Cabrera is a franchise player, and Willis, however overrated he may be, was charismatic and really easy to root for. How does a franchise just let that go? It must be hard to root for the Marlins. I do respect all 8 of their fans for putting up with this.
i wonder if cabrera will be persuaded into playing 1b… unless i’m forgetting someone, isn’t it open with casey being a free agent?
Given the vacillations from year to year in the NL, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Marlins surprise everyone again and win it all in 2009 or ’10. I know a Marlins fan and yeah, it’s a weird state to be in, both geographically and metaphysically.
Clarification: In my above statement, I’m the only one not being surprised.
Thank you for your attention.
Sorry yankee fans but as far as this guy is concerned:
Santana in Boston = very good pitcher
Santana in NY = very great pitcher
The steinbrenners can act as arrogantly as they like but they blew this one. No question in my mind.
nyara: The most likely defensive alignments for the Tigers as currently constructed would be:
1B; Carlos Guillen (he said he’d only move to 1B for a GG-calibre SS, now that they sort of have one but not really, he plays 1B)
2B Polanco, SS Renteria, 3B Cabrera, LF Thames/Jones/Ryan Raburn, CF Granderson, RF Ordonez, DH Sheffield
Or: Put Cabrera in LF and leave Inge at 3B.
As an opponent, I hope they go with the first. Any games played by Thames or Raburn could feature some really horrific defense on the entire left side of the field. On the other hand, if Cabrera plays LF, Granderson will have a statue to his right and a mini-Manny to his left.
ESPN is posting the following about the Tigers:
LF: Jacque Jones
CF: Curtis Granderson
RF: Magglio Ordonez
1B: Carlos Guillen
2B: Placido Polanco
SS: Edgar Renteria
3B: Miguel Cabrera
C: Ivan Rodriguez
DH: Gary Sheffield
And Brandon Inge goes well? Last time I checked, he was a pretty decent 3B. Anybody need a 3B?
How would this lineup look?
1. Granderson (L)
2. Polanco (R)
3. Sheffield (R)
4. Ordonez (R)
5. Cabrera (R)
6. Guillen (S)
7. Rodriguez (R)
8. Renteria (R)
9. Jones (L)
Thats alot of freaking right handed bats.
Indeed Carlos, and the two Lefties are back to back!
Where else would Jones go? He’s a poor man’s leadoff man, putting him at 9 allows you to have some leadoff ability.
But they will never see a left hander all year. Folks are going to be spot-starting right handers when Detroit comes to town.
I think Jones is still with the team; previous post didn’t mention Jacque but ESPN has him on their roster.
“The steinbrenners can act as arrogantly as they like but they blew this one. No question in my mind.”
A wise man would save that until after a deal is done, and more importantly, an extention is signed…
RS fanbase reminds me of a former flamethrowing poster we had here who represented maybe .001% of the actual Red Sox fanbase.
One wonders two things about this long-ass delay:
1.) Smith and Theo were bluffing all along, and now that the Yankees are actually out, both want to save face and make the appearance of negotiating. It could end with the Twins just walking away and keeping Johan after deciding what Boston was offering wasn’t what they wanted.
2.) Theo is attempting to get ‘max value’ here like he did in the A-Rod attempt. Hopefully it blows up in his face and the Twins walk away. Or better yet, go back to the Yankees.
Wishful thinking here, but hey, this was supposed to be ‘in the bag’ by now.
I have to think you’d bat I-Rod and his .291 OBP 9th in that lineup. No need to give him more opportunities to make outs than Renteria or Jones/Raburn when he’s better at it.
Apparently Inge is on the market. After a down offensive year, 30+ years old, being owed $19M over the next three years.
How can only .001% of RS fans be excited about santana not pitching for the yankees? He is exactly what they needed.
RS Fanbase, i don’t think SF was referring to your stance, just your delivery.
Too excited I guess. I’ll retire for the evening.
SF and Nick, being that the Marlins and Loria had their minds made up to trade Cabrera and D-Train what they got in return was pretty darn good. Miller is going to be a very very good pitcher and Maybin is going to be a star. Plus they both have only 1 year of service, so they are cheap for a long time to come. They were never going to get what Cabrera and Willis are exactly worth in value, but who does in a trade? (See Johan Santana) As dump trades go, they got some solid value.
John, I think SF’s point was that they always get solid value. It just seems like in two years they’ll end up that young exciting talent.
Regarding Maybin, look at what he did this year in High-A, and then take a look at Austin Jackson. They’re the same age, to boot. What am I missing?
Andrew I wasn’t comparing him to anyone. I was just stating that Maybin will be a very good player. Didn’t bring up Austin Jackson.
I didn’t mean anything by it, John.
I just keep hearing Maybin is a surefire star, and then I hear that Jackson is just a guy who’s never hit above A-ball. (If I heard this from you, then consider the subject dropped – I don’t want an argument.)
Im not drawing any conclusions from it but what the hell takes these guys so long to work out a trade? I mean there are only so many iterations that they can try no? The sox have a pool of about 15 guys at the very most that are involved here. Shouldnt in be like we’ll give you XYZ and the other team says we want WXY and so forth. There arent too many other things to discuss in the context of a trade right? Maybe some money for Coco’s contract. Thats about it.
I just dont understand the process I guess.
Honestly, I don’t know a whole lot about Jackson. I know more about Maybin because he was called up for the Yankees series late in the season last year. I got to see him a little and he looks like a real player.
No problem Andrew, just a misunderstanding.
Sam it feels like they are peeling the band-aid off slow as can be. Please Theo just rip it off already!
Are they sitting in a room together with the Twins saying we want Ellsbury and Lester and the Sox saying pick one until the other one just relents because they are sick of it?
God, let’s hope so, Sam.
Theo should include Ellsbury and Lester. Coco is bad offensively, but provides much value with the glove. And adding Santana makes them the prohibitive favorites for the East for years. I think that’s worth Ellsbury, I mean, Willy Mays Lite.
Like I said earlier, the only way I walk away from this with a glimmer of hope is if Jacoby is included in the deal. At least then I can take some consolation in the fact that they lost their best prospect in the process.
I would say their best prospect is Buchholz. But hey, the Yankees aren’t letting go of Chamberlain come hell or high water, so we can’t begrudge them that.
Austin Jackson: Career, MiL: .765 OPS, 81 SB in 302 G @ 76%
Cameron Maybin: Career MiL: .884 OPS, 52 SB in 192 G @ 80%
Yeah, you can look just at what they both did in the FSL last season and think there’s not much of a difference. Maybin still showed better plate discipline (his OBP was not nearly as BA-driven) and made it to the Show. Maybin’s track record previous to each’s stint in the FSL is better (read: destroys, though smaller in sample) than Austin Jackson’s.
Let me tell you this. If you had your choice of both, would you hitch your star to the guy that came semi-out-of-nowhere to post a .964 OPS in 67 games? Or the guy with a .884 OPS over his entire MiL career? Who is more reliable?
Obviously Maybin is the better prospect. But I don’t see how there’s a canyon of difference between him and Jackson, especially since Jackson completely demolished the FSL, and continued to do very well in the HWL. I guess things will come into clearer focus next year.
I dont know enough about prospect forecasting to say but it would seem to me that a guy like Jackson who comes out of nowhere iesp at such a young age is likely to be just as likely to succeed. He is only 20 Guys grow into their bodies and things can just click at that age. Id be more likely to hang my hat on what the scouts say.
FWIW, Austin Jackson’s BABIP @ Tampa was .396. Of course, Maybin’s was .403. The best you could say for your argument, then, is that neither’s hitting line in Florida is sustainable, though Maybin’s was .415 in 2006 as well.
The canyon of difference is in the track record. Maybin has performed at a reasonably high level his entire MiL career. Austin Jackson? Not so much.
SF – Of course the Sox would be better. Even for Yankee fans who didn’t want to lose Hughes and Melky, the rumored trade makes the 2008 Red Sox a team we don’t like having in Boston. You’d have two number ones, while we’d have none. Not good.
Most Yankee fans, I’m sure, feel like the Yankee offer was better. And there’s no question that we would miss our players more than you’d miss yours. We don’t want Damon in center. You’d be happy to get rid of Coco, but if he stays instead of Ellsbury, you’re just fine with another ace on the mound. And Lester? He’s not an ace, and he’s not a potential ace. Hughes may be. And you’ll have Santana, Beckett and Dice-K for years. Andy’s in his final year, and Moose may have already had his final year.
Here’s hoping the Angels swoop in and offer a better deal.
Sam, I don’t know a lot about prospect forecasting myself.
If I was told I could have one of the following:
A: A young pitcher who has been talked about by scouts, seemingly, since birth, and has performed at an impressive and steady level (2.45 ERA, 8.5 K/9) over his entire MiL career.
B: A similarly young pitcher who has been talked about my scouts a lot this season, and has performed slightly more impressively than A) this season (2.20 ERA, 9 K/9), but his track record is a little less than impressive (4.65 ERA, 3.5 BB/9, 5 K/9).
Me? I want A. And it’s not close.
However, obviously, some people on up to ML GMs would disagree with me. Certainly plausible, and the rewards for B could be a little better than A, maybe. But A is much easier to project in the future and thus the safer (and still very high-performing) bet.
Actually, Andy had recently professed his desire to pitch into the new stadium. He even said he feels like he can pitch until he’s 45. Part of the reason he was so hesitant to come back this year was the fact that he knew he’d be severely tempted by the new stadium to pitch in 2009…and who knows how long after that.
You are talking about Buccholz and who?
Quo – Austin hit .300 in the rookie league in 2005, when he was 18. He stumbled in 2006, but seriously broke out last year. Yeah, he hasn’t been consistently dominant, but Maybin has had two years. It’s not that much of a track record. And if you want to talk about scouting track record, well, Jackson almost has been talked about since birth. Or at least since the Yankees started scouting him at age 12. He was the top American young athlete at the age of 14 and at the age of 16. His pedigree isn’t so terrible.
But in any case, yes Maybin is the better prospect. But I really don’t think people should underestimate Jackson. The supremely ‘toolsy’ athletic guys like Jackson who break out tend to stay broken out.
Who’s talking about Buchholz and who?
But I really don’t think people should underestimate Jackson.
Fair point, though I think we should wait until he performs at such a high level for more than 60 games of regular-season ball to start projecting stardom.
Well okay, he performed at a high level for 68 games ;)
As far as Im concerned nobody is on his way to being a star until he can put up great numbers in two consecutive MLB seasons. Everyone else is a prospect.
I know thats simplistic but the MLB chews up players and spits them out on a regular basis.
AndrewYF: As the kids say, ‘touche’.
Heh. I dunno. I just think it’s easier to look at Maybin’s track record and say, hey, potentially great ballplayer. With Austin Jackson I say, hey, excellent half-season, but I’d like to see a bit more before I make any proclamations.
Quo you put that hypothetical above with two young pitchers. I assumed one was Bucchholz but maybe you just picked his MiLB era randomly?
Sam, if your question was as to my ridiculous made-up scenario about the pitchers, above, then I’ll tell you. It was just that. Made-up. Hypothetical.
If it closely resembled Buch’s line in the minors, then call that random chance.
thats funny Quo, Clay’s MiLB era was 2.46 i assumed you were talking about him! His K/9 is much better than 8.5 though.
Yeah. If I’d intended to go with Buch, I’d probably have set his K/9 at 17,000 and his H/9 to -12. Cause I mean. Foregone conclusion, right?
1. I’m willing to bet a Papelbon or two that the Angels get Johan. the Angels are ready to throw half the starting lineup at them, meanwhile the sox (and sorry I’m an SF and love me some Ellsbury but admit this is a pretty weak trade) are like, “check this out: here’s a coupla rookies who haven’t even played complete seasons yet, but they’ve got those ‘intangibles’ like cancer survival and Navajo cred, and another guy who catches but will leave a gaping hole in offense, and some average prospects. and oh wait…a 17 year old!!! for a HOF pitcher!!! sounds great huh? you like it!” COME ON…
and the second thing I love is Hank Steinbrenner. what a fun one he is! i love the warped lack of self-awareness. it’s like a napoleon complex at its best. “we despearetely need this guy cuz otherwise all we got is a coupla geriatrics and a guy who wets the bed in big games, but you’ve got 10 minutes to give us your best pitcher or we’re gonna go wake up a Clemens from the grave. and guess who’s gonna be healthy any day now…CARL PAVANO! how you like that, Twins! we’re gonna be the Grumpy Old Yanks next year, with our knee replacements but we DO have someone under 30, his name is…SHELLEY DUNCAN!”
(and don’t get all insulted, SF and YF – I’m just havin fun)
maybe this is a dumb observation but why haven’t the yanks throw in Johnny Damon, or was I just hearing things when I saw the rumor they were trying to trade him to the White Sox (right after his whole embarrassing “any team would be lucky to have me!” speech)
New thread up top in an attempt to keep things manageable. Something like 1,000 comments in three days. Not bad!
4th observation and then I say goodnight:
while the sox and yanks play “Negotiations 101” like a college business case study, Detroit slips in and nabs Cabrera and Willis??
who the…what the…did they hash this one out at a nearby starbucks? how’d this slip by?
umm…anyone else just a little intimidated by the ’08 Tigers – I’m calling playoff sleeper on these guys.
Lyndsay: The Tigers have some serious weaknesses to address. Defense outside of the 2B and CF positions, for instance. Bullpen, for another. They’re very strong in their lineup and just strong enough in their rotation, assuming Bonderman can get back on track. The balance on that team, however, is terrible. And all the prospects they could have used to really fill those holes are gone.
lyndsay…you got ’em on the run…nice job!
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