# The Jeter Meter

Hitless streak: 0-32
Last night: 0-4
Batting average: .161
Tonight’s opponent: Barry Zito
Quote for the day: “The guys, with the exception of myself, are starting to swing the bat pretty good.”

• Contreras mood meter: Restrained jubilation.

JCL (YF) April 29, 2004, 10:43 am
• Reason for optimism!
Derek Jeter career vs. Barry Zito: 7-16, .438 avg.

YF April 29, 2004, 12:48 pm
• Scientific reason for optimism: 0 for 32!

SF April 29, 2004, 1:06 pm
• I’m not completely up to date on my game theory, but i’m not sure “he’s due” is legitimate scientific reasoning. On the other hand, he is SO FUCKING DUE. I mean seriously.

YF April 29, 2004, 1:40 pm
• Harkening back to college statistics class: Jeter’s chance of getting a hit against Zito in his first at bat can be argued to be 43.8% which is correlated to his collective previous performance against Zito. If Jeter let’s say strikes out against Zito in his first at bat tonight, then on his next at bat the likelihood of him getting a hit actually decreases! The likelihood of Jeter getting a hit on his second at bat would then be 41.1% (based on his updated 7 for 17 career against Zito). SF’s reason for optimism is wrong; likely uses the same false optimism to predict Sox penants.

JCL (YF) April 29, 2004, 2:03 pm
• Hey, JCL, thanks for the string theory. What if you don’t isolate Jeter vs. Zito (which may be an unfair operation, since he is facing Zito tonight, and not some unnamed pitcher) and simply look at Jeter’s career numbers vs. his seasonal numbers – what does that say mathematically about the liklihood of him getting a hit? Is he more due or less due? I am curious. Basically, YF is right, he is so f**cking due.
And, just so you know, this is the first year of my entire life, 35 years worth, that I have ever predicted a Sox Pennant or Series victory. I wasn’t raised in a vacuum, you know. Even way back in ’75, when my parents trodded off to the 7th game against the Reds and I went to sleep (I was 7), I told them not to wake me if they lost (how’s THAT for confidence?). Guess what – my mom still woke me up, and I cried just like I did in ’78 (on my birthday, no less) and in ’86. So I haven’t made it a habit of predicting pennants. This year is different, though – we have Curt.

SF April 29, 2004, 4:20 pm
• Okay, shall we make peace here and say Jeets is likely to get a hit tonight, given he’ll probably have 5 plate appearances, and he’s got somewhere between a 25 and 40 percent shot of achieving said goal each time. Plus, as previsously noted, he is SO FUCKING DUE.

YF April 29, 2004, 4:39 pm
• 6/8/89: Shawon Dunston goes 2-3, boosting his average over .200 for the first time all year to .203
6/9/89: Mets come to town for a 4-game series and the “Shawon-O-Meter” makes its first appearance
2/6/90: The original “Shawon-O-Meter” is accepted into the Smithsonian’s National Museum of American History
9/23/90: “Shawon-O-Meter” #2 is accepted into the Baseball Hall of Fame in Cooperstown, NY
1/19/91: “Shawon-O-Meter” #3 is accepted into the Chicago Historical Society
It might be time for the “Jeter Meter” to appear in the bleachers. BTW, my wife & I made our 1st Yankees game on 4/27/04. They went on to win 8 straight. See ya in the Series.

Dave Cihla May 28, 2004, 3:43 am