Two Seasons

Nine games into a season that hasn't quite gone the way we expected thus far, the Boston Red Sox are 2-7. That's not good, but it seems like there's a better way to look at this (aside from Dustin Pedroia's salient point that four games out with 153 to go isn't actually that bad a situation to be in):

Through five games, the Red Sox went 0-5, and they were outscored 37-16. They got a little unlucky, in that they scored enough in the first two games to tie or win their last two games in that stretch. They probably played "well" enough to be a 1-4 team.

In the next four games, the Red Sox went 2-2 and outscored the opposition, 17-16. With one of those games being a 1-0 defeat, the Sox could just as easily have gone 3-1. 

The Red Sox are 2-7. Pythag says they are more like a 3-6 team. A little better luck, and they would be 4-5. 

In any event, the turnaround appears to have begun. Since Jon Lester started the second run through the rotation, the Red Sox are a .500 ballclub. That's better than literally nothing.

14 comments… add one

  • I like how resilient these players are, it always amazes me that they can tune out most of the shit that we (or I, rather) can’t.
    Last night was unexpected, and if Beckett can prove that it wasn’t a fluke that’s just huge. He pitched better than I think we could have expected from him, under any circumstance.

    SF April 11, 2011, 10:14 am
  • What did people think of the ESPN broadcasting crew? I heard maybe half or 2/3 of the broadcast (before nodding off from a bad headcold), but it struck me that it was much improved, Bobby Valentine notwithstanding. Hershiser seems to be wonky to a fault, but way more informed than Joe Morgan. Valentine was not quite an embarrassment, but obviously can’t stand not being the center of attention. And his diagnosis of Gonzalez’ hand after the hit-by-pitch was totally comical (X-Ray vision, Bobby?). His comment that RSN was clamoring for Crawford to “justify his contract” already was just stupid.
    Still, no Joe Morgan was a godsend.

    SF April 11, 2011, 10:17 am
  • Orel Hershiser is a fantastic broadcaster, in my opinion. It’s a shame that Valentine talked over him for the majority of the night.
    I almost wish we had Joe Morgan back, because at least with him you expect–and even hope for–his absurd comments.

    Atheose - SF April 11, 2011, 10:27 am
  • Also, Beckett’s game score last night was 87. This is the second-best game score he’s had since joining the Red Sox; he had a game score of 88 against the Royals in 2009, where he pitched a complete game shutout. Interestingly, in his best season (2007) he never had a game score above 77.
    Of course, if you look at the postseason things are different. He had a game score of 93 against the Cubs in 2003, and another game score of 87 against the Angels in 2007.

    Atheose - SF April 11, 2011, 10:35 am
  • Beckett was fantastic. But, I don’t see anything different than what I’ve always said (same applies to AJ Burnett):
    If he’s throwing that curveball for strikes, he’s basically unhittable on any given night.
    Everyone loves to write guys off, like “Hughes is garbage now” or “beckett is well past his prime”, but hardly ever is it true.

    Brad April 11, 2011, 10:56 am
  • Went to the game, it was fun for a while but you could tell Sabathia had nothing and it was only a matter of time before the Sox did SOMEthing. Beckett was truly masterful, using his full arsenal of offspeed pitches. An example of how when everything’s working for a pitcher, not even the best of offenses can do anything. Disappointing, but I couldn’t be too upset.
    Looks like everything’s back to normal, eh? Now the Yankees suck and the Sox are unstoppable. Until the next game, anyway. Gotta love baseball, it’s like 12 football seasons packed into one.

    AndrewYF April 11, 2011, 2:41 pm
  • I think thet Sox record, while terrible, has made folks over-think and over calculate. The season is young, teams have droughts, yada, yada. Yes, they may end up sucking this year, but let us get 30 or 40 games in before we write them off because of our math skills or how some other teams have started in previous years.

    BrentY SF April 11, 2011, 4:33 pm
  • Hershiser is fantastic. He’s intelligent, informed, and has a quick wit, but he’s not usually sardonic.

    attackgerbil April 11, 2011, 4:57 pm
  • Here’s a more optimistic way to look at things:
    The Sox are 4.0 games out of 1st, and 3 games out of 2nd, in the A.L. East.
    Teams that are four games back in June — or even late August — aren’t typically considered out of the running.
    Here we are in April, with a whopping 153 games left to play, and the Sox are “only” four games back.
    At least that’s what I’ve been telling myself.

    Hudson April 11, 2011, 5:38 pm
  • Teams that are four games back in June — or even late August — aren’t typically considered out of the running.
    Funny thing is that most teams that are four games out in late August should be considered out of the running, or at least that is my gut on how often teams that are four out with four weeks to play make it to the end. History check, Paul!?

    SF April 11, 2011, 6:09 pm
  • “…aside from Dustin Pedroia’s salient point that four games out with 153 to go isn’t actually that bad a situation to be in”
    “Here’s a more optimistic way to look at things: The Sox are 4.0 games out of 1st, and 3 games out of 2nd, in the A.L. East.
    Teams that are four games back in June — or even late August — aren’t typically considered out of the running”
    Good thing no one at this site made these exact points multiple times…oh, wait…forget it.

    IronHorse (YF) April 11, 2011, 9:04 pm
  • well IH it’s because the pessimist’s tendency is to extrapolate 1-7 over a 162 game season…

    dc April 11, 2011, 9:17 pm
  • “The Red Sox are 2-7. Pythag says they are more like a 3-6 team. A little better luck, and they would be 4-5.”
    After tonight, Pythag says the Red Sox are more like a low-scoring football team with Trent Dilfer as their QB.

    Nick-YF April 12, 2011, 12:19 am
  • Good thing no one at this site made these exact points multiple times…oh, wait…forget it.
    Hey, I’m on your side! Or maybe you’re on mine. Either way, we agree, though i should have given you credit. My bad.

    Paul SF April 12, 2011, 10:22 am

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