West Coasting: Sox-A’s Gamer II

Series like this are another example of some of the bad luck the Sox are getting. What are the odds that the Sox run into both Brett Anderson AND Gio Gonzalez in a two-game series? Obviously worse than 1 in 5 (which would be the odds of getting one of them) but better than 1 in 25 (because they follow each other in the rotation, though not necessarily beyond the first runthrough).
Anyway, I’d say the likelihood would be between 5 to 10 percent that you’d face the opponent’s two best starters in a two-game series. So of course that’s exactly what the Sox will be doing. Blech.

Paul SF April 20, 2011 at 3:16 pm

Well, rethinking that, the chances of getting one of them in a two-game series would be 2 in 5, I think. So 40 percent. Getting both of them would be 4 in 25, or 16 percent. The chances of getting the correct one in the first game to guarantee the second one would be 1 in 5. So the chances are more like 15-20 percent. Not terrible luck, but not good by any stretch.

Paul SF April 20, 2011 at 3:22 pm

Anyone else around for this one?

Paul SF April 20, 2011 at 3:34 pm

We’re going to start early with the outside pirches called for strikes to lefty batters, I see.

Paul SF April 20, 2011 at 3:40 pm

Yeah, this game isn’t going to be a good one for the offense. I’m not going to comment for a while and see if things can’t get better…

Paul SF April 20, 2011 at 3:43 pm

Yes, let’s give back all that positive momentum!
Could be back to seven under .500, after 10.5% of the season. Big mountain to climb, even after the glimmer of hope given this weekend.
To me this is a must-win (as a fan, that is), and it already looks bad.
Gotta cut out for the duration, unfortunately.

SF April 20, 2011 at 3:52 pm

Carl with an RBI to tie it, 1-1.

I'mBillMcNeal April 20, 2011 at 3:57 pm

I think the Sox should DH for Varitek. He killed that inning all by himself.

SF April 20, 2011 at 4:00 pm

Sox more aggressive against Gio in the second. Saw a lot of pitches. three hits and they tie it, but Carl is CS at 2nd.
Carl, by the way, has driven in the Sox last two runs.

I'mBillMcNeal April 20, 2011 at 4:01 pm

Clay getting hit hard, but A’s get nothing.
He’s at 31 pitches but seems like it should be more. Oakland is not a good-hitting team.
This game is the opposite of last night. We’re only through two innings after 40 minutes. Anderson and Lackey worked much more quickly yesterday.
And I think it’s time to get Ellsbury back in the leadoff spot and let figure out how to be a leadoff hitter.

I'mBillMcNeal April 20, 2011 at 4:15 pm

Drew has swung at the first pitch twice.

I'mBillMcNeal April 20, 2011 at 4:16 pm

Drew also has struck out looking twice.

I'mBillMcNeal April 20, 2011 at 4:17 pm

Perhaps signs that Crawford is beginning to break out: He hits a double-play ball but beats the throw.
Runners on the corners, 1 out, after a Youkilis lead-off homer; Lowrie single, Scutaro reaches on error.
Aaaand rally-killer Tek does hit into the double play.
But the Sox lead, 2-1.
Gio’s pitch count at 70 through 4 IP.

I'mBillMcNeal April 20, 2011 at 4:40 pm

Buchholz at 58 pitches through 4, looking good against a bad-hitting team.

I'mBillMcNeal April 20, 2011 at 4:52 pm

Sox’ bats have looked pretty good against a really good pitcher. They’re getting some good luck, too, which is nice. They’re due.
Buchholz has had trouble commanding his changeup today, but he’s snapped off some good curves, and his fastball is painting both corners.

Paul SF April 20, 2011 at 5:14 pm

Crawford looks like he’s intentionally trying to hit everything the opposite way. It seems to be helping him get more comfortable at the plate.
AND LOWRIE HITS A DINGER!!!! 4-1!

Paul SF April 20, 2011 at 5:15 pm

Gonzo singles, Youk Ks, King Jed homers. 4-1, Sox.
More importantly, Dale Arnold was reading my Tweets in the air during the WEEI broadcast.

I'mBillMcNeal April 20, 2011 at 5:17 pm

Scutaro with another hit. He’s hitting the ball well, too. Can one of them catch?

Paul SF April 20, 2011 at 5:18 pm

That’s pretty awesome, IBM. What tweets?

Paul SF April 20, 2011 at 5:18 pm

I don’t know whose offense is worse, Oakland, who has a soon-to-be 37 year old Matsui as its best hitter, or Seattle, where it’s the Ichiro! or bust party.

AndrewYF April 20, 2011 at 5:18 pm

Hard line drive by Crawford, but right at Crisp. Progress continues…

Paul SF April 20, 2011 at 5:19 pm

Burnt Bread is up. Seriously, I get that people are nervous about Salty and all that, but watching Varitek hit this year is worse than watching a pitcher try to swing a bat.
The hat trick for Varitek: strikeout, double play, popup. Nothing even remotely productive.

Paul SF April 20, 2011 at 5:21 pm

I’m sure the Yankees would take Buchholz in exchange for Martin ;)

AndrewYF April 20, 2011 at 5:23 pm

Stuff about Iowa high school baseball.

I'mBillMcNeal April 20, 2011 at 5:31 pm

Buchholz has lost it against a bad offensive team.

I'mBillMcNeal April 20, 2011 at 5:32 pm

MLB has seized control of the Dodgers.

I'mBillMcNeal April 20, 2011 at 5:33 pm

Ah, Conor Jackson. He and Micah Owings were once the up-and-coming stars for Arizona, and the guys people really really wanted the Yankees to get for Randy Johnson. They got Ross Ohlendorf instead, and not that it matters too much, but I think that was the favorable outcome.

AndrewYF April 20, 2011 at 5:34 pm

How is it that MLB hates Frank McCourt so much, but lets criminals like the Wilpons retain control of their mess?

AndrewYF April 20, 2011 at 5:36 pm

Wow, both times Buchholz loses batters on pitches right on the black. Both pitchers had been getting those calls all day.

Paul SF April 20, 2011 at 5:37 pm

Tito showing some intelligent bullpen management, bringing in his best guy in the most crucial part of the game. Kudos to you, Francona.

AndrewYF April 20, 2011 at 5:38 pm

Bard with the huuuuge strikeout of Pennington on three pitches.

Paul SF April 20, 2011 at 5:38 pm

The Sox really benefit from having their best reliever being the young guy who is blocked by the good enough (but not as good) veteran in the closer’s role. The use of closers is one of the dumbest traditions in baseball today.
Wheewwww, Crisp misses a bases-clearing double by, what? Three inches? If that?

Paul SF April 20, 2011 at 5:40 pm

Bard dodges a bullet. Covelli drops one just foul. And then he pops up for the third out.
Nice job, Bard, getting two outs with the bases loaded.

I'mBillMcNeal April 20, 2011 at 5:41 pm

Wow. That’s the payback for that looper off Bard in the Texas series that hit right on the line for a double and cost the Sox the game. Crisp tags one that lands foul by inches, then pops out on the next pitch.

Paul SF April 20, 2011 at 5:42 pm

Still must get 9 outs, though.
Do you bring Bard back for the 7th?

I'mBillMcNeal April 20, 2011 at 5:42 pm

According to Gammons, Red Sox doctors would never have given Russell Martin a clean bill of health in the offseason. Now, maybe this is to try and deflect some blame on that mistake, but if true, Red Sox doctors are not having a good year and a half.

AndrewYF April 20, 2011 at 5:43 pm

Just saw that news alert about the Dodgers, Andrew. Yeah, it’s strange that the Wilpons don’t also fall into that category, but I guess the McCourts have had a lot longer to try to prove themselves able to extricate themselves from their mess than the Wilpons.

Paul SF April 20, 2011 at 5:43 pm

Afternoon baseball leads to unproductive afternoons at work.
I’m supposed to be writing a speech for me boss.

I'mBillMcNeal April 20, 2011 at 5:44 pm

Ells has 3 Ks, all looking.
Jeebus.

I'mBillMcNeal April 20, 2011 at 5:45 pm

Ellsbury has struck out three times, but all three times looking. Not quite a data point in the “swinging for the fences” theory. Doesn’t necessarily disprove it, but I’m interested in this discussion…
Drew with the big insurance homer!

Paul SF April 20, 2011 at 5:46 pm

Drew homers on a rope, 5-1.

I'mBillMcNeal April 20, 2011 at 5:47 pm

Andrew, were the health concerns about Martin related to recovery from surgery or his overall ability to stay healthy? If it was the former, that’s one thing and looks more like a dropped ball, but if it was the latter, then we’ll need a good deal more time to evaluate that.

Paul SF April 20, 2011 at 5:48 pm

It could be that MLB was focusing on McCourt first and now will turn its attention to the Wilpons.
I just told a co-worker who is a Mets fan about McCourt and he responded by wondering aloud when MLB would sieze the Mets.

I'mBillMcNeal April 20, 2011 at 5:49 pm

The McCourt-Wilpon business should really force MLB to overhaul how it determines ownership. You’ve got maverick (pun intended) but successful owner types like Mark Cuban essentially blackballed because they’re not “the right type” or whatever lame excuse they have, but then creeps and crooks like McCourt and Wilpon (and others) are given entry.

Paul SF April 20, 2011 at 5:51 pm

It should, I meant to add, but it won’t.

Paul SF April 20, 2011 at 5:52 pm

Alex Spier: Red Sox starters each have allowed one or fewer runs over 5+ innings in five consecutive games for the first time since 1947.
I love April baseball.

I'mBillMcNeal April 20, 2011 at 5:54 pm

So Daniel Bard totally deserves a save for this game, but because he came on in the sixth, he won’t get one. Ridiculous…

Paul SF April 20, 2011 at 5:55 pm

Maybe McDonald Trump will buy the Dodgers.

I'mBillMcNeal April 20, 2011 at 5:55 pm

What? And take time away from his presidential bid? *snicker*

Paul SF April 20, 2011 at 5:56 pm

Bard back for the 7th.
Looks like we’re setting up for Bard-Jenks-Paps.

I'mBillMcNeal April 20, 2011 at 5:57 pm

Paul, which is a dumber pitching stat: Saves or wins?

I'mBillMcNeal April 20, 2011 at 5:57 pm

If McDonald buys the Dodgers, he’ll trade for Luke Scott so they can share birther conspiracy theories.

I'mBillMcNeal April 20, 2011 at 5:59 pm

Here’s a good one: someone was bitching at me yesterday about our bankrupt government. (He didn’t like it when I informed him that the government isn’t bankrupt.) He said I should watch the movie Atlas Shrugged to get a real understanding of what’s really going on. Then he said he wants McDonald to run, run, run.
By the time he was done with the pejorative rant I didn’t have the heart to point out to this imbicile that Atlas Shrugged is fiction and McDonald has bankrupted four companies.
And then I went out for tea.

I'mBillMcNeal April 20, 2011 at 6:03 pm

I guess I’d say saves because wins at least have a genesis in a time when pitchers consistently completed their starts, but they’re both pretty ridiculous.
What drives me crazy is that three heavily used state — wins, saves and batting average — have incredibly complex rules, so much so that if they were new “advanced” stats, they would be dismissed because of how complicated they would be to understand and keep track of. Never mind the fact that all three of them rely far too heavily on luck — and far too little on the things that actually make a pitcher or hitter actually good — to be of much use in analysis. Yet there they are…
RBI is another one of those. You get credit for one if you are the reason a runner scores. Even if he scores on an out. Unless it’s a double play. But anytime you reach safely and the runner scores, it’s an RBI. Well, unless you reach on an error. It goes on… Craziness.

Paul SF April 20, 2011 at 6:05 pm

OK, gotta go.
Church night.

I'mBillMcNeal April 20, 2011 at 6:06 pm

IBM, it’s depressing how little people who argue that x is the No. 1 problem facing America today actually know anything about whatever x happens to be that year. People have no idea what goes into job creation or deficit reduction. If they did… well, we probably wouldn’t have two parties today. Because only one is actually taking that kind of stuff seriously. *steps off soapbox*
On that note, I think it’s time for me to head home. Have a good one, everybody!

Paul SF April 20, 2011 at 6:08 pm

I am coming around on the new stats.
Perhaps that should be a YFSF mission, to replace the archaic and misleading stats (BA, wins, saves, RBI, etc.) that are the most relied upon by the Shankses of the world.

I'mBillMcNeal April 20, 2011 at 6:09 pm

Come on Papelbon, get it together.

Atheose - SF April 20, 2011 at 6:42 pm

Whew. And the Sox have won 4 of their last 5, and look pretty good overall.

Atheose - SF April 20, 2011 at 6:49 pm

Are you a Christian Science, IBMcN? That’s the only religion I know that has church on wednesday.

AndrewYF April 20, 2011 at 8:09 pm

Wow, politics invading this place?
Unfortunately, the Democrats are not *much* better. I voted for Scott Brown because of the turd they ran up here against him. She mocked the idea of standing outside Fenway – in the cold – shaking hands. And all the hysteria the Democrats claimed was utter drivel. I knew they’d ram through the HCP and they did. I also laughed when the Teabaggers thought Brown would be a solid conservative.
Obama is a solid plus (even as he’s way too passive). After that, the Democrats’ bench is very thin. I shudder at the thought of President Biden.

James YF April 20, 2011 at 9:19 pm

Eric Chavez for president!

AndrewYF April 20, 2011 at 9:30 pm

The Grandyman for President!

James YF April 20, 2011 at 9:44 pm

Um, back to the Sox game… My son and I played hooky to go to the game. Salty signed my son’s hat, We met Daniel Bard – and then watched him clear up that mess in the 6th. Except for the black hole at the bottom of the order, the boys looked good.

rootbeerfloat April 20, 2011 at 10:26 pm

did the yankees play today?

dc April 20, 2011 at 11:52 pm

Not FCCS. No way. Never read L. Ron, never will.
Wednesday night is choir rehearsal and other church activities.
…
James …
My comments, and I think I probably speak for Paul, although he should confirm that, not me, are not meant to be pro-Democratic Party. I’m merely bemoaning how the sleight-of-hand that is the Koch-funded teabagger movement has convinced so many people to vote against their own economic interests by misrepresented facts and revisionist history.
Now we have people citing fiction, Atlas Shrugged, to prove Friedman-esque economics. And Donald Trump, the chairman of greed, will lead us to economic prosperity? It’s absolute tortured logic.
The Dems don’t exactly have it right, but the utter nonsense from the far right, from Beck to Koch, is mindboggling and truely frightening. And people repeat this stuff like it’s well-known history. Up is down.
I guy I had this conversation with? He’s a reporter. GAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA!!!!!

I'mBillMcNeal April 20, 2011 at 11:53 pm

Oh, any anyone who saw this coming from Eric Chavez … raise your hand.
That’s what I thought.
But good for him. I always liked him.
Impromptu poll:
Where’s El-Barto Colon on July 1?
A. All-star bound
B. Hanging in there
C. Disabled list
D. Hey, where the hell did Bartolo Colon disappear to?
I pick ‘D’ (see 2008)

I'mBillMcNeal April 21, 2011 at 12:04 am

Regarding politics: I’m fiscally conservative and socially liberal, and I hate how the Republican party has turned into the party that only cares about religion and abortion. Between that and the Tea Party I’ve become so disgusted with the state of American politics.
Thank goodness baseball is here though. And the Sox aren’t the worst team in baseball anymore!

Atheose - SF April 21, 2011 at 7:47 am

no yankee gamer, and you guys are talking politics…sheesh…
re. your colon question IBM: who cares?… by then he’ll either be replaced by another retread playing over his head, or cashman will have packaged up a handful of prospects to grab a real starter from a team who realizes they aren’t going anywhere this year…like maybe the sox…i’d take lester for montero and romine…there, i solved your catching problem too ;-)

dc April 21, 2011 at 8:48 am

Politics isn’t completely foreign to this site. And if memory serves, when it does come up, it has been thoughtful, respectful and intelligent.

I'mBillMcNeal April 21, 2011 at 2:00 pm

well that explains why there was no yankee gamer…thanks IBM ;) let’s change the name of the site to “pachyderms v. jackasses”

dc April 21, 2011 at 2:08 pm