What Ifs

Easy to forget, with David Ortiz still coming back from his extended stint on the DL, that he’s having a pretty damn good season.

Here are his numbers so far this season:

  • .262/.365/.495, 17 HR, 62 RBI, 46 BB, 14 2B, 49 R, 122 OPS+

Here are his projected numbers for the rest of this season:

  • .262/.365/.495, 26 HR, 96 RBI, 72 BB, 22 2B, 74 R, ??? OPS+

Respectable enough, considering the time he missed. The low rate stats, still dragged down by his poor April, belie how good Ortiz has been since. For instance, here are his numbers this season projected over 162 games played:

  • .262/.365/.495, 38 HR, 139 RBI, 103 BB, 31 2B, 110 R, 130 OPS+

Similarly, here are his numbers over his previous 365 days, limited by the injury to just 112 games:

  • .303/.414/.608, 33 HR, 108 RBI, 82 BB, 29 2B, 89 R, 169 OPS+

But adjust those to 162 games played, and it’s simply staggering:

  • .303/.414/.608, 47 HR, 154 RBI, 117 BB, 41 2B, 127 R, 169 OPS+

Granted, the 162-game projections are a little inaccurate, as Ortiz has never played more than 159 games, but seeing as he’s never played less than 149 as a full-time member of the Red Sox until this year, they’re not far off either. Ortiz is having another beast of a season, and it looks like he’s rolling at just the right time.

8 comments… add one
  • What are his stats since returning from the injury? Those seem to me more relevant than the past 162 games, and I suspect they are quite solid numbers.

    Hudson August 15, 2008, 12:12 pm
  • Since coming back from the DL (18 games):
    .290/.398/.522, 4 HR, 19 RBI, 13 BB, 4 2B, 13 R, .920 OPS.

    Atheose August 15, 2008, 12:41 pm
  • Can’t complain about that!

    DUFF - SF August 15, 2008, 1:06 pm
  • It turns out that you don’t actually need Manny Ramirez batting 4th to get strikes thrown to Ortiz. Go figure.

    Kazz August 15, 2008, 1:15 pm
  • sssstttttrrrrreeeeettttcccchhhhh
    paul, you can make numbers tap dance…ortiz is a pretty good player, when he plays…we get it

    dc August 15, 2008, 4:10 pm
  • Thanks, Atheose.
    Considering how much better he’s been since returning, the projected BA/OBP/SLG numbers for Ortiz in the diary don’t make a lot of sense (they are just the same as his current year-total stats).
    Given that he was awful pre-injury, is now picking up a ton of steam, and has more ABs remaining than those during his April doldrums, I’d expect Ortiz to outperform the projection.

    Hudson August 15, 2008, 4:14 pm
  • And now for something completely different:
    Manny gets his hair cut and then goes hitless in last night’s game … Samson … Joe Torre needs to leave him alone.

    pale blue eyes August 15, 2008, 5:05 pm
  • You’re forgetting to include the category where Big Papi really overreached this year… Singing

    J (yf) August 15, 2008, 6:07 pm

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