YFSF Picks’em: Postseason Awards 2006

Every April we make predictions, and every October we revise those predictions having watched a season transpire. What courage. After the jump, you will find YF, Nick, Paul, Gerb, and yours truly offering prognostications about the soon-to-be-awarded leaguewide hardware for individual accomplishment. Gerb and I offered comments, and feel free to add yours to the thread.

YF’s Picks

AL MVP: Jeter
AL ROY: Verlander
AL CY: Santana
AL Manager: Torre
NL MVP: Howard
NL ROY: Zimmerman
NL CY: Oswalt
NL Manager: Girardi

Nick’s Picks:

AL MVP: Jeter
AL ROY: Papelbon
AL CY: Santana
AL Manager: Leyland
NL MVP: Pujols
NL ROY: Hanley Ramirez
NL CY: Oswalt
NL Manager: Randolph

Paul’s Picks:

AL MVP: Morneau
AL ROY: Papelbon
AL CY: Leyland
AL Manager: Leyland
NL MVP: Howard
NL ROY: Hanley Ramirez
NL CY: Carpenter
NL Manager: Girardi

Gerb’s Picks, with Comments:

AL MVP: David Ortiz. Toughest MVP race ever. Hard to call between him and Morneau (great pick)/Sizemore (nice year, but no)/ Mauer (awesome choice)/Hafner (got hurt, byebye, otherwise would have probably taken it)/Dye (_great_ year)/Manny (ho-hum, another INCREDIBLE season)/Jeter* (D. Sanderson J. is getting more serious love in the papers than ever before), but I really think Ortiz deserves it this year. (preseason pick: ARod)
AL ROY: Francisco Liriano*. Verlander could win it and I would be fine. I think I would have to give it to either of these to over Paps, as great as his rookie year was. (preseason pick: Kenji Johjima)
AL CY: Johan Santana*. I think everyone agrees that this one is obvious. (preseason pick: Halladay)
AL Manager: Jim Leyland*. Incredible job by him this year. (Preseason pick: Joe Torre)
NL MVP: Prince Albert Pujols*. It’s a photo finish over Ryan Howard. Gawd, I really want Howard here, but… (preseason pick: Pujols)
NL ROY: Hanley Ramirez. Tough call here, Uggla*, Zimmerman, but I love stolen bases. (preseason pick: Jeremy Hermida)
NL CY: Chris Carpenter*. Three shutouts edge him over Roy Oswalt. (preseason pick: Oswalt)
NL Manager: Joe Girardi. Just to spite Florida, though I would like Willie Randolph* to win it too. Ex-Yankee bias in both cases, perhaps. (preseason pick: Willie)

SF’s Picks, with Comments:

AL MVP: Anyone but Jeter. (Seriously, how can this low-rent, low-class male version of Paris Hilton merit any legitimate consideration?)*.

AL RoY: Papelbon. Verlander? Liriano? Please. These guys didn’t put up one of the great seasons ever at their position, and as a rookie to boot. No contest here.
AL CY: Santana. No-brainer. Called it in April.
AL MoY: Leyland. Though the votes were cast before the playoffs, the World Series ought to show you how great a job Leyland did in squeezing 90-something wins out of that squad. Smoke and mirrors, baby!
NL MVP: Howard. I picked him before the season, and I ain’t about to bail on him now.
NL RoY: Zimmerman. Another pre-season pick.
NL CY: Picking his award is like getting the last pick at kickball. Do you take the fat kid with no motor skills or the skinny runt with the coke bottle glasses? I go with the skinny kid: Roy Oswalt.
NL MoY: Willie. I might have gone for Girardi, he’s certainly deserving, but any manager that gets a sorry-ass NL team to a playoff spot should get more consideration for this award. Man, that league stinks. (Is that bitter enough?)

* Just kidding, YFs. I am curious to see if the comments start flying on this declaration or if readers actually make it down to this disclaiming addenda and hold off. My pick is either Papi (Jeter). or Jeter (Papi). I can’t decide. Justin Morneau has bad facial hair, and is therefore exempt from any votes.

26 comments… add one
  • For clarification purposes, in my comments, the asterisk is by the player who I think will win, as opposed to should win, and is not related to SF’s addenda.

    attackgerbil November 1, 2006, 11:56 am
  • I didn’t put in any comments, so let me throw out some props to some folks who didn’t get my votes: David Ortiz, Jermaine Dye, Travis Hafner, Jon Papelbon, Francisco Liriano, Jim Leyland, Willie Randolph, Hanley Ramirez, and Dan Uggla. It took some serious restraint not to pencil in Joe Mauer and Albert Pujols in the respective MVP slots. You can’t pick everyone, unfortunately.

    YF November 1, 2006, 12:08 pm
  • AL MVP: Mauer
    AL ROY: Liriano
    AL MOY: Leyland
    AL CY: Santana
    NL MVP: Pujols
    NL ROY: Zimmerman
    NL MOY: Girardi
    NL CY: Brandon Webb

    Quo November 1, 2006, 12:14 pm
  • AL MVP: Jeter (Lifetime achievement award)
    AL ROY: Liriano (As dominating as they come.. if he ever comes back)
    AL CY: Santana (Is there anyone else?)
    AL Manager: Leyland (Nothing to add)
    NL MVP: Howard (Love Pujols, but just look at the numbers.. poor Pujols will now have to fight Howard every year after sitting behind Bonds all those years..)
    NL ROY: Zimmerman
    NL CY: Carpenter
    NL Manager: Randolph
    Seems like a close race in most of these.. hmm.

    Lar November 1, 2006, 12:19 pm
  • The AL MVP is really going to be interesting.
    Five first-place votes on this site, two for Jeter, and three for other people. I think that might be how it goes — Jeter wins because the Twins split their votes, and the Sox finished too far out to give it to Ortiz.
    I have a hard time udnerstanding why Willie Randolph should win MoY for managing a team with Pedro Martinez, Tom Glavine, Billy Wagner, Carlos Beltran, Carlos Delgado, David Wright and Jose Reyes to a first-place finish. BFD on that one. Girardi steered a bunch of rookies and no-names into playoff contention and a winning record — far more impressive, in my book.

    Paul SF November 1, 2006, 12:20 pm
  • Lar, if you’re looking at numbers re: Pujols vs. Howard, then what are you looking at in respect to Jeter vs. Ortiz vs. Hafner vs. Morneau?

    Quo November 1, 2006, 12:31 pm
  • “Lar, if you’re looking at numbers re: Pujols vs. Howard, then what are you looking at in respect to Jeter vs. Ortiz vs. Hafner vs. Morneau?”
    I think Lar was saying that Jeter gets the MVP in the same way that Crowe won for “Gladiator” or Denzel won for “Training Day”…sure that wasn’t the single reason they should win but they deserved it for past glories (1/2 pun sorta intended) and the time is right.

    walein November 1, 2006, 12:42 pm
  • Okay. So, if it is a lifetime achievement award, which it isn’t, then shouldn’t some (read: more) consideration be given to Manny Ramirez?

    Quo November 1, 2006, 12:44 pm
  • Props also to Lance Berkman. His name should be in here somewhere.

    YF November 1, 2006, 1:31 pm
  • Paul: I’m not sure that’s fair. Plenty of “talented” teams implode. Call it Knick-itis. But at some point the whole MOY category is kind of silly. There’s no real criteria for evaluation besides where the team finishes, and the extent to which this is independent of the manager’s input is basically impossible to guage. So we always end up with anomalies, like a guy winning the award one year, and then getting canned the next. Is he doing something quantitatively different? Is he not doing something quantitatively different that he SHOULD be? Look at Torre this year. He went from MOY candidate (his chad is popped on my ballot) to nearly fired in 4 games. Girardi is likely to win the thing and he’s ALREADY fired. So maybe the whole MOY thing is BS. Which is not to say there are not good and bad managers (Hargrove!). But how can you compare their performances, when they are each performing in wildly different circumstances? You can’t.

    YF November 1, 2006, 1:43 pm
  • I don’t doubt that Randolph did a good job this year — no matter how good the players, a manager can always screw up a team. When you’ve got a bazillion-dollar payroll, doing the expected seems a little below the mark for a MOY award. If half the players had gone down with injuries or something, that would be different. Barring a tremendous season (which the Mets really didn’t have) or tremendous obstacles (your ownership tearing down the team and rebuilding), just having a good record when you’re already stocked with good players doesn’t tell much about how the manager actually did.

    Paul SF November 1, 2006, 2:21 pm
  • Honestly, YF, you have to compare despite the different circumstances. How else to judge? Personally, for me, Torre’s not in the equation. I respect the hell out of the man, but for in-game decisions, Leyland, Gardenhire, Scioscia et al. have him bested. If it were Manager of Egos of the Year, then yes, Torre deserves it.

    Quo November 1, 2006, 2:32 pm
  • AL MVP: David Ortiz (He won’t get it, but I don’t think there’s any player more valuable to his team than this guy. Except maybe Travis Hafner, but he won’t win it either.)
    AL CY: Johan Santana (I mean…duh.)
    AL RoY: Jonathan Papelbon (This one’s really tough, but Pap’s sheer dominance out of the pen is something we haven’t seen since the Eck, so he gets the leg up. Verlander is a very close second.)
    AL MoY: Jim Leyland (Overrated, but very hard to ignore the Tigers’ return to relevance.)
    NL MVP: Albert Pujols (Hands down the best player in baseball, even if he’s recently looked like a jerk in the press.)
    NL CY: Brandon Webb (It’s either him or Oswalt in my mind, but Webb pitched more innings this year, so he gets a bonus.)
    NL RoY: Ryan Zimmerman (Another really close call. I picked Zimmerman because he’s so well-rounded in his game, but guys like Josh Johnson, Hanley Ramirez, and Prince Fielder are good choices too.)
    NL MoY: Joe Girardi (I pick him with some reluctance given the various reports from the Marlins’ FO, but managing a team of kids to near contention can’t be ignored.)

    mouse November 1, 2006, 2:44 pm
  • If I were to include comments, they would go something like this:
    Derek Jeter: The win shares and VORP do not lie. This is not a lifetime achievement award even if people vote that way. His closest competition is Johan Santana, and I just don’t believe in giving the MVP to a pitcher. One of my irrational beliefs. I don’t argue that.
    Papelbon: The WARP2 does not lie
    Santana: Hello, Obvious!
    Leyland: A rich aristocrat who convincingly plays the part of a John Cassavettes character. Baseball is theater, and Leyland’s was the best season-long performance.
    NL MVP: Pujols=Ridicujols
    NL ROY: Ramirez: On my fantasy team next year.
    NL CY: Oswalt: See what SF wrote.
    NL Manager: See what AG wrote.

    Nick-YF November 1, 2006, 4:14 pm
  • Wow, didn’t think it was so bad. Jeter’s “traditional” power numbers aren’t up to par, but ya, the win shares are pretty up there. Yes, I’m a vaguely biased YF, and I think this was Ortiz’s year, about 3/4 through the season, but well, the Sox fell apart.
    Yank’s lineup is stacked. But it wasn’t always this season, probably from an insane team to “just” a great team much of the season. Jeter held his team together the entire year.. a consistently top tier player in a team full of inconsistencies beats out a team of Moreanu, Mauer, Santana, and a _very_ good Liriano for half the year..
    Dye deserves a lot of credit, on the logic that I had before, but the stats aren’t really that dramatically different, (Dye – Jeter) = (20 HR, -12 2B, -27 SB, -30 OBP, 140 SLG) add that with a probable Gold Glove.. and you can toss it up..

    Lar November 1, 2006, 6:48 pm
  • If Jeter wins the GG this year, I will lead a riot. Not really, but where the last couple years there were no outstandingly strong candidates (though Juan Uribe amongst others might have something to say to me about that, along with OC), there are several strong candidates this year, and Jeter is not one of them. In defensive WS, there are 9 AL SS with more defensive WS than him. He’s not a sieve, as some SFs might like to think, but he’s certainly not a “probable” GG winner based on those stats.
    The Jeter win shares argument means in the AL you are looking at stats like those, while in the NL (Pujols 39WS, Howard 31WS), you must be looking at traditional stats. I’m not saying Jeter is a bad MVP candidate, that’s certainly NOT the case. I’m saying if you take Jeter since he’s the glue that held a team together, Pujols was one better on him for the Cardinals in the NL.
    Maybe this is something I should be sending to those sportswriters that will also simultaneously vote for Jeter and Howard. Pick a standard, and go by it. Obviously this is our opinions, and you wanting Jeter to win the MVP is understandable, and like I said, he’s a fair candidate. Personally, and this might make me a blasphemer to my fellow Sox fans, but I MIGHT put him above Papi on the ballot.
    In David Eckstein-bashing news, he had the same amount of WS this year as Julio Lugo (in only his 73 AL games this year), and Adam Everett (he of the sparkling defense and the low low batting average with no power).

    Quo November 1, 2006, 7:38 pm
  • Quo, I have Pujols winning on my ballot as well. I’m being consistent…for the most part.

    Nick-YF November 1, 2006, 7:52 pm
  • Quo: I agree there’s some hypocrisy in choosing Jeter and Howard, rather than Jeter and Pujols. Howard and Papi are pretty similar players, this year. For me, the scale tipper for Howard was in games played. Pujols lost time to injury, while Howard went the whole year.
    If I were a Twins fan, I’d really wonder how Joe Mauer isn’t the top MVP candidate, nevermind Morneau. Thankfully, I’m a Yankee fan.

    YF November 1, 2006, 8:50 pm
  • …my humble opinions:
    …as i’ve said before i think ortiz deserves the al mvp over jeter, in a close race, despite the sox finish…i wouldn’t want to see either one of them up to the plate with the game on the line if i’m the opposition, and i don’t happen to agree with the philosophy that the mvp’s team has to finish first…
    …santana looks like everyone’s al cy young…i won’t disagree, unless anyone wants to jump on the rj bandwagon with me [just kidding]…
    …al mgr/year: leyland…he made the most out of a team many people picked to finish last, 2nd place=torre, he held things together while the yanks worked in some of the younger guys due to injuries, 3rd place=francona, you guys may accuse me of giving him pity-consideration, but i admired the way he had the guts to go with a rookie closer, and some of the other younger guys, and muscled through one of the worst string of injuries any team has had to endure…
    …rookie of the year…there were some good ones, but anybody not picking paplebon is in denial…
    …i don’t care so much about the nl, but given that 2 former yanks [favorites of mine] are in the running, i think i have to have an opinion…i’d like to cop out and say it’s a tie, but i won’t…girardi gets my vote, because he took his team further than they probably had a right or the talent to go, exceeding expectations…willie did a great job, and deserves a big tip of the cap, but as paul pointed out [somewhat less tactfully], willie had more to work with, and consequently came up somewhat short of expectations…

    dc November 1, 2006, 10:00 pm
  • I think the simple fact that Pujols ends up with more WS in less games was amazing, as far as the NL MVP goes.

    Quo November 1, 2006, 11:14 pm
  • Howard’s Phillies actually got more wins than them Cards, which got the benefit of the weaker division..
    In a year with weak candidates, the wins don’t matter, but unless the stats are so overwhelming on one side, wins got to count for something.. it’s Most Valuable Player, not Silver Slugger.. (though I will say it’s odd that Jeter won that one..)
    If you “even-out” Pujols/Howard’s stats, I can’t argue that Pujols’ is more valuable to Cards than Howard is to the Phils. Both of those teams would probably just fall apart (or at least more so, in Cards’ case), so to me, the stats are a tiebreaker, and not the main reason..

    Lar November 2, 2006, 9:52 am
  • And Jeter and the Yankees didn’t end up taking advantage of what ended up being a weak division? Nothing wrong with them doing that, but finishing ahead of the 2nd place team by double-digits…less impressive than what the Twins did over the course of the season.

    Quo November 2, 2006, 10:02 am
  • And yes, I’m aware of the Yankees record. Their regular season was impressive. But what did they have to deal with down the stretch vs. the Tigers/Twins?

    Quo November 2, 2006, 10:07 am
  • This is heartening, that so many people think Papelbon should/will win ROY. I’d written him off because of the injury, figured Verlander would win by default as the only rookie pitcher to actually last the whole season.

    Paul SF November 2, 2006, 10:47 am
  • When I mean a weak division, I mean a weak division _by far_. When your record would’ve been 12th in baseball, 5th in NL…
    I’m not sure what you’re attacking, so I don’t know what to be defensive about!
    NY’s record against the Central is better than any Central’s team record against the East. I’m not sure what this means, weighted schedule and all, against teams not in their division, NY’s record is only worse to the Twins (I’m only comparing Minn, Det, Chicago)
    I don’t usually weight the latter part of the season as more crucial than the earlier half, since it makes no sense anyhow, but the Tigers aren’t in this conversation if you’re talking about down the stretch.. the Twins’ schedule down the stretch is tougher.. so who was carrying them exactly? Was it Santana? Or Moreanu? Or Mauer?
    With the Yanks’ lineup in disarray much of the season, and by the time it came together, they were mostly resting people here and there playing meaningless games.. it’s a wonder they got 97 wins..

    Lar November 2, 2006, 11:01 am
  • I don’t usually like to vote for relievers unless it was a Gagne-type season, but Verlander hitted the wall about 2/3 in, and Papelbon was just sick..
    Liriano would’ve been the clear favorite if he struck around, but for me it’s pretty much a toss up, and well, I just find Liriano’s season harder to accomplish – you can more easily argue Liriano could’ve pulled (well, maybe) what Papelbon did than the other way around (no knocks on either pitcher, just the generic ‘starter -> closer’ is easier than ‘closer -> starter’ argument..)

    Lar November 2, 2006, 11:08 am

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