World Series, scmorld schmeries.
What we all really care about is: Who won the YFSF 2007 Staff Predictions?
Let’s find out!
A point system seems to be the fairest way of determining who was most accurate in the totality of the predictions. I (cribbing from a friend of mine who devised a similar system when he and I bet a dinner on it last year — and then promptly lost the sheets containing our predictions) came up with this:
- 5 points for each team’s correctly predicted finish.
- 5 points for correctly predicting the wild card (so 10 points total when combined with the correct second-place prediction).
- 10 points for correctly predicting the division winner (so 15 points total when combined with getting the placement correct).
- 10 points for correctly predicting order of all teams in a division (on top of points for each team and division winner, so nailing a five-team division would net 45 points. A wild card finisher in that division would make it 50).
- 15 points for correctly predicting each LCS participant.
- 20 points for correctly predicting each World Series participant.
- 50 points for correctly predicting World Series winner.
- 25 points for correctly predicting Rookie or Manager of the Year.
- 30 points for correctly predicting Cy Young.
- 40 points for correctly predicting MVP.
- 15 points if predicted award winner finished second or third in the relevant voting.
This seems to match the greater number of points with the predictions representing the largest pool of possible teams/candidates, as well as providing bonuses if one managed to correctly predict the finishes of each team in a division (tougher than it seems).
Here’s what we predicted at the beginning of the year, with the points gained in parentheses:
AL EAST | ||||
YF (+15) | SF (+15) | NICK (+5) | PAUL (+30) | AG (+45) |
NYY | NYY | NYY | BOS (+15) | BOS (+15) |
BOS* | BOS* | BOS* | NYY* (+10) | NYY (+5) |
TOR (+5) | TOR (+5) | TOR (+5) | TOR (+5) | TOR (+5) |
BAL (+5) | BAL (+5) | TB | TB | BAL (+5) |
TB (+5) | TB (+5) | BAL | BAL | TB (+5) |
AL CENTRAL | ||||
YF (+10) | SF (+45) | NICK (+10) | PAUL (+25) | AG (+25) |
DET | CLE (+15) | MIN | CLE (+15) | CLE (+15) |
MIN | DET (+5) | CLE | DET (+5) | MIN* |
CLE | MIN (+5) | DET | CHW | DET |
CHW (+5) | CHW (+5) | CHW (+5) | MIN | CHW (+5) |
KC (+5) | KC (+5) | KC (+5) | KC (+5) | KC (+5) |
AL WEST | ||||
YF (+15) | SF (+15) | NICK (+15) | PAUL (+15) | AG (+20) |
LAA (+15) | LAA (+15) | LAA (+15) | LAA (+15) | LAA (+15) |
OAK | OAK | OAK | OAK | OAK |
TEX | TEX | TEX | TEX | SEA |
SEA | SEA | SEA | SEA | TEX (+5) |
NL EAST | ||||
YF (+0) | SF (+0) | NICK (+25) | PAUL (+15) | AG (+25) |
NYM | NYM | PHI (+15) | PHI (+15) | PHI (+15) |
ATL* | ATL | NYM* (+5) | ATL | NYM* (+5) |
PHI | FLA | ATL (+5) | NYM | ATL (+5) |
FLA | PHI | FLA | FLA | FLA |
WAS | WAS | WAS | WAS | WAS |
NL CENTRAL | ||||
YF (+10) | SF (+10) | NICK (+15) | PAUL (+20) | AG (+5) |
STL | STL | MIL | MIL | MIL |
HOU | CHC | STL | CHC* | STL |
CHC | HOU | CHC | STL (+5) | CIN |
MIL | MIL | HOU (+5) | HOU (+5) | CHC |
CIN (+5) | CIN (+5) | CIN (+5) | CIN (+5) | HOU |
PIT (+5) | PIT (+5) | PIT (+5) | PIT (+5) | PIT (+5) |
NL WEST | ||||
YF (+5) | SF (+25) | NICK (+5) | PAUL (+5) | AG (+0) |
LAD | ARI (+15) | SD | LAD | LAD |
SD | LAD | LAD | ARI | SD |
ARI | SD (+5) | ARI | SD (+5) | ARI |
COL | COL | COL | SF | SF |
SF (+5) | SF (+5) | SF (+5) | COL | COL |
So much for our acumen when it comes to the National League. Correctly predicting the NL Central would have meant huge points for anyone who could do it. Sadly, none of us even got the top twp finishers right. At this point, it’s AG in the lead with 120, followed by yours truly and SF (110 each), Nick (80) and YF (55).
ALCS | ||||
YF (+15) | SF (+50) | NICK (+15) | PAUL (+35) | AG (+15) |
NYY over BOS (+15) |
BOS (+35) over CLE (+15) |
NYY over BOS (+15) |
BOS (+35) over NYY |
CLE (+15) over LAA |
NLCS | ||||
YF (+0) | SF (+0) | NICK (+0) | PAUL (+0) | AG (+0) |
ATL over LAD |
LAD over NYM |
MIL over PHI |
LAD over PHI |
LAD over MIL |
WS Champion | ||||
YF | SF | NICK | PAUL (+50) | AG |
NYY | LAD | NYY | BOS | CLE |
SF was the only one to correctly predict a Boston-Cleveland ALCS — and a Boston win, to boot. So he gets the 15 points for each team, plus the 20 points for correctly predicting the Sox as a World Series participant. We all tanked the National League — somehow, none of us thought the Rockies and Diamondbacks would be playing for the NL championship. It seems so obvious now! AG gave up his lead to slide to third place: Me (195), SF (160), AG (135), Nick (95), YF (70). The race is still wide open.
Hotly Debated Yet Ultimately Meaningless Individual Honors
AL MVP | |
YF: | Vladimir Guerrero, LAA (+15) |
SF: | Grady Sizemore, CLE |
Nick: | Grady Sizemore, CLE |
Paul: | David Ortiz, BOS |
AG: | Joe Mauer, MIN |
AL CY | |
YF: | Johan Santana, MIN |
SF: | |
Nick: | Daisuke Matsuzaka, BOS |
Paul: | Daisuke Matsuzaka, BOS |
AG: | C. C. Sabathia, CLE (+30) |
AL ROY | |
YF: | Daisuke Matsuzaka, BOS |
SF: | Daisuke Matsuzaka, BOS |
Nick: | Daisuke Matsuzaka, BOS |
Paul: | Daisuke Matsuzaka, BOS |
AG: | Alex Gordon, KC |
AL MOY | |
YF: | Joe Torre, NYY (+15) |
SF: | Eric Wedge, CLE (+25) |
Nick: | Joe Torre, NYY (+15) |
Paul: | Eric Wedge, CLE (+25) |
AG: | Eric Wedge, CLE (+25) |
NL MVP | |
YF: | Albert Pujols, STL |
SF: | Albert Pujols, STL |
Nick: | Ryan Howard, PHI |
Paul: | Albert Pujols, STL |
AG: | Ryan Howard, PHI |
NL CY | |
YF: | Roy Oswalt, HOU |
SF: | Roy Oswalt, HOU |
Nick: | Jake Peavy, SD (+30) |
Paul: | Jake Peavy, SD (+30) |
AG: | Roy Oswalt, HOU |
NL ROY | |
YF: | Kevin Kouzmanoff, SD |
SF: | Chris Young, ARI |
Nick: | Chris Young, ARI |
Paul: | Troy Tulowitzky, COL (+15) |
AG: | Chris Young, ARI |
NL MOY | |
YF: | Lou Piniella, CHC |
SF: | Bob Melvin, ARI (+25) |
Nick: | Ned Yost, MIL |
Paul: | Ned Yost, MIL |
AG: | Ned Yost, MIL |
So there you have it. We all did a pretty good job guessing the AL Manager of the Year, and less so picking the National League awards. Final standings:
- Paul — 265 points
- SF — 210 points
- AG — 190 points
- Nick — 140 points
- YF — 100 points
So there we have it. Correctly predicting the Red Sox to win the whole enchilada pretty well put me over the top, while SF held on to second place thanks to his prescient ALCS prediction.
I think what this all tells us is two things: Sox fans are smarter (like we didn’t already know that), and we should stay away from the National League.
I blame Dice-K
Next year I’m taking home the crown!
How did I not pick the Sox…
I am not sure I like the fifteen points for getting a top three post-season award finisher. The return for picking the winner is only +10 over picking a third place finisher. Doesn’t seem fair to those of us that picked Bob Melvin and Eric Wedge…
;-)
Found a line for a Boston Trifecta. http://www.wagerweb.com/sports-betting/sporting-events-news.html Very cool . I think Red Sox win again with Mike and Curt back, The Celtics are for real and of course The New England Patriots already clinched a playoff birth with The Bills loss. Looking good being a Boston Fan. Sorry Yanks.
I blame the NL West. Lousy, no-good division.
How come we didn’t get this accounting last year, when my pics were so good!
Alas…..was just one of those years, I guess.