45 days from now, the Sox will no longer be in first place.
I don’t know that I disagree with you. Even with a healthy Schill back, you can’t win games without scoring runs.
We’re being blown out, by the garbage of the AL, our manager has his head up his ass, we are carrying at least two players (Pena and Mirabelli) who barely exhibit an ability to play baseball at a major league level, and have at least three starters who could give up 8 runs on any given night.
Welcome to your season, Yankees, ours is looking pretty much looking terminally ill right now.
In some ways this has the feel of 2006…without that team’s first half ability to hit in the clutch. More than the lousy pitching or the inevitable blow outs, it’s the loss of those close games and the dozen runners LOB which drive one insane.
Joe Torre is making sure that there’s no truth behind this proclamation.
Kind of curious that on the night SF posts about the difficulty of coming from behind in the late innings, the Yanks do just that (after their pen had allowed their opponent to take a lead in the 8th–something else we had been discussing).
I dunno…45 days seems rather optimistic….perhaps 30 days would be more accurate…
I’m nearly one hundred percent sure that we’re not the only ones who see the problem here…
Theo knows what he needs to do, and dedspite SF’s demand for another bullpen arm, the answer is to add another front line starting pitcher no matter what.
This team is a good team that gets shut down by young, unknown pitchers.
Like every other night, the world comes to an end when the Yankees win and the Red Sox lose, and it’s amplified when both are dramatic (somewhat). I’m not quite ready to think that the Red Sox have the best record in baseball by mistake or luck.
They need to make a move, and get one of the bottom two pitchers out of the rotation.
Oh, and please, for the love of god, just release WMP for nothing and call up someone who contributes anything to a team. ANYTHING. This is no kidding, but I play a much better outfield than he does.
As Bill James knows well, a team’s record in one-run games should largely approximate their overall winning percentage. So, the Red Sox were unusually lucky over the first half of the season and the Yankees were unusually unluckly. Knows those trends are drifting towards the mean. The Yankees pythagorean is only two games back of the Red Sox. Some of this is just normalization. I also think the Sox have the best record in baseball for a reason. They need an effective Schilling back.
As long as Farnsworthless wears pinstripes, there should still be hope in Red Sox Nation. We dodged a bullet tonight.
At this pace, the Yanks will catch up in 8 games. Duh, it’s simple math.
Yeah, at this point, I am equally pessimistic.
But the red sox don’t have the best record in baseball – that would be detroit.
The Sox are squandering a July opportunity which has a ton of home games and a weaker schedule, to position themselves for a murderous road August. 45 days may be about right. IMHO: dump WMP, sign a competent bat or two, and DL Ortiz for a while to get his leg strength back (something some SoSHers suggested around interleague time), and let’s rock in September. I think they’ll pull it out with pitching — on the whole I like the bullpen — but they need more balance to get thru the playoffs. Geez JD, remember how to hit an extra base hit would’ja?
History tells us that the season series between the Yankees and the Redsox usually ends up around 10-9 either way. The current split is 5 wins for the Yankees and 7 wins for the sox. There are seven games left. It is not impossibel to see the Yankees going 5-2 in those seven games. If thats the case, the lead is not 8 games as it is currently, but more like 5. The lead is not as large as people think, nor is it as safe.
If thats the case, the lead is not 8 games as it is currently, but more like 5.
in my mind, a lot more luck is needed on the yankees’ side than that of the red sox.
the yankee bullpen needs to be overhauled with arms from the farm. they need a solution at 1B if phillips can’t keep his current pace. they need hughes back and delivering the kind of starts that legends are made of… regularly. clemens needs to last more than 5 innings. igawa needs to go away. cairo, too. they need to win close games and win the vast majority of their games from here on out.
the sox just need to have a second half almost as good as their first. they’ve shown that this group can do that.
plus… 8 games is a good cushion.
i wish i could be more optimistic.
…best not to get my hopes up yet.
I don’t agree about Miggy- granted he shouldn’t be the everyday 1B, but he’s a very valuable utility man to have around.
The bullpen is the problem. I don’t see arms in the farm system that will help out in the short term, though.
A couple weeks ago I projected out some numbers (for the hell of it.)
On Jul 25th, i wrote:
“The New York Yankees are 11-3 since the all-star break and 18-7 in their last 25 games. They have gained 7 games on AL East leading Boston in the last month. They are 4 1/2 games out of the Wild Card as of today.
It all leads towards a three game series in the Bronx against the Red Sox at the end of August.
There is a different philosophy at play here besides scoreboard watching. You can’t control what the other teams do or how they play. All you can do is get your record to represent what kind of team you are. The Yankees are 53-46, 99 games into a 162 game season. They have been playing .700 ball the last 25 games. They can not keep that up. The goal at the beginning of the season was 95 wins. Sounds like alot, but that has become the expectation in NYC. To reach that number, the Yankees would have to go 42-11 for the rest of the season. That would be 0.666 ball. Thats alot. But, the Yankees in Joe Torre’s 10-year tenure have averaged a winning percentage of 0.611.”
Since July 25th, the Yanks are 7-4, 0.636 ball. Most of the last 36 games were against bad teams and now the schedule gets harder, but .600 ball isn’t out of the question.
In the end, you are what your record says you are. The Yankees are averaging about 98 wins a season in the Torre era. That may be out of reach for us this year, but its a worthy goal for the remaining 40% of the season. What we want to be is a .600+ team at the end of the season.
Unfortunately, The Red Sox are also on pace to win 98 games this season. And winning 15 out of their last 25 games means they aren’t slacking that much. It makes us keeping our ten straight AL East title streak alive difficult. At the current pace, we end up around 92 wins, still six games back. We win the head to head, it gets easier.
But first priority is being the team we are supposed to be, then we can worry where the chips fall. 92-95 wins gives us a good chance at the wild card…but I’ll take sweeping the Red Sox the rest of the way and an 11th straight AL East crown.
We’re not giving up a six game lead that easily. There’s no way yankees will sweep the red sox or even win the weeked series.
What happened in Anaheim last night was manny being manny and opening his big fat mouth and pretty much taking the gusto out of the sox offense for the night.
Hey did you see that ball hit the dirt and bounce three inches into the catchers mit, for shame on that ump. The bad foul line call is understandable, but that one at the plate was terrible.
For all you yankees fans…Let’s see what things look like after playing 8 games against the tigers in 12 days with a LAA road trip sandwiched in there.
I do want this race to be close and love when the rivalry is in full effect.
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