Category: Predictions and Projections

Last in a series (Part 1, Part 2, Part 3, Part 4, Part 5, Part 6, Part 7)

So what have we learned about the simulations' general accuracy? 

• In 2010, the Yankees finished one game and the Rays two games shy of the average projection. The Red Sox finished off by six games, but no projection can — and no projection should — project a season like that.
• In 2009, the Red Sox finished one game better than projected, but the Yankees overperformed by seven games.
• In 2008, the projections generally punted. The Rays were 12 games better than projected, the Yankees were six games worse, and the Red Sox were three games better. Only the Blue Jays were projected more or less accurately.
• In 2007, no projection was closer than four games off of the Red Sox' ultimate record, but they pretty much nailed the Yankees'.
• In 2006, the Sox underperformed by three games, the Blue Jays overperformed by four, and the Yankees were seven games better than the average projection.
• In 2005, the projections nailed it, placing the Sox and Yankees one game off, one either side, of the clubs' ultimate first-place tie.

Of the 16 AL East teams projected over the course of the last six years, I count the number of successes (two games or fewer) at seven — a 43.8 percent success rate. As for significant misses (four games or more), I also count seven. And twice, the projections were three games off, which is right on the border between being fairly close and pretty obviously not close. 

Then there's the other, arguably more important facet, which is whether they got the standings right, even if one team ended up significantly better or worse than projected. Being seven games off the Yankees' record doesn't matter nearly as much if the Yanks were expected to finish in first anyway, for example.

On that score, the projections got it right in 2005 and 2009. That's it.

They get partial credit for 2006 in correctly projecting the division winner but swapping second and third.

They missed entirely in 2007, 2008 (though correctly projecting the Sox to finish second, I don't count it as a success if you miss on the first- and third-place teams) and 2010, when all three teams finished differently than projected.

So successful, or at least correctly projecting the division winner, three times, missing the boat three times. Taking that with the roughly 50/50 success rate in terms of raw record projection, it seems we can be about 50 percent certain of the projections being correct in any given season.

As Hudson noted on one of the previous threads, it seems like we could randomly pick two numbers between 92 and 98, then assign the higher number to the Yankees and the other to the Red Sox, and we would have just as likely a chance at correctly projecting the AL East as 1,000 simulations of whatever top-flight projection systems are out there today. 

If we did that, we would get it right in 2005 and 2009, get the division winner correct in 2006, and miss it entirely in 2007, 2008 and 2010. Just like the projections.

But that doesn't make them any less fun, which of course is the entire point.

Seventh in a series (Part 1, Part 2, Part 3, Part 4, Part 5, Part 6)

And so we reach last offseason, the infamous "Bridge Year" for Theo Epstein and the Red Sox.

The Sox signed Marco Scutaro to keep shortstop warm for Jose Iglesias, picked up Adrian Beltre to play third on a make-good, one-year deal, and signed Mike Cameron to play center field while Jacoby Ellsbury, Ryan Kalish and Josh Reddick continued their development. 

The Sox parted ways with Jason Bay, perhaps looking more toward the 2010-11 offseason than was believed at the time, though the defensive upgrade to Ellsbury in left and Cameron in center was (or should have been) significant. The Sox also threw a plate of spaghetti at the bullpen wall to see what stuck. But the Sox also made a big-name signing, as well, locking up John Lackey. Other signings didn't make much of a splash at the time, but the Sox picked up scrap heap bench players Darnell McDonald and Scott Patterson, as well.

Finally, in the feel-good move of the offseason, the Sox signed Nomar Garciaparra to a one-day contract, whereupon he retired as a member of the Red Sox.

The Yankees, obviously didn't need to make as many moves. But they did trade for Curtis Granderson to replace the departing Johnny Damon, re-signed Andy Pettitte after he considered retirement (again), released Chien-Ming Wang, signed Nick Johnson to replace Hideki Matsui and traded Melky Cabrera to Atlanta for old friend Javier Vasquez, giving Brett Gardner room to roam in center. Bench and bullpen moves included picking up Marcus Thames and Chan Ho Park.

Fifth in a series. (Part 1, Part 2, Part 3, Part 4)

Coming off a World Series win and with a young core in place, the Red Sox were in a strong position to sit tight in the offseason, figuring out only what to do with aging veterans (but key 2007) pieces Mike Lowell and Curt Schilling, both of whom were eligible for free agency.

They resolved those questions quickly, re-signing both in deals the team would come to regret. Other moves were minor, aimed at reinforcing the bench and bullpen, as the Sox traded for David Aardsma and signed Sean Casey.

The Yankees, meanwhile, had a pressing need: to re-sign Alex Rodriguez, who had caused a stir when he opted out of his contract by holding a sign reading, "Screw you, Cashman!" as he parachuted onto the Coors Field grass in the middle of World Series Game 4. Then he slugged Jonathan Papelbon in the face. (He later explained: "Well, who hasn't wanted to do that?")

While negotiations continued, the Yankees also made some minor moves, signing LaTroy Hawkins and releasing Andy Phillips. The Yankees, in much the same situation as the Red Sox with their key veteran pieces, then re-signed Andy Pettitte to a one-year deal, Rodriguez to a 10-year contract and Mariano Rivera to a three-year deal. Finally, in a surprising coup de grâce that shifted for generations the balance of power in the AL East, the Yankees signed Billy Crystal to a one-day contract near the end of spring training.

Third in a series (Part 1, Part 2)

Coming off the close-fought but ultimately disappointing 2005 season, the Sox and Yankees had dramatically different offseasons, emphasis on the drama, at least in Boston's case.

The Theo Epstein saga shook Boston for weeks, as the GM feuded with Larry Luchhino, quit the team, left in a gorilla suit, was rumored to be advising his interim replacements while he vacationed in the tropics (with Pearl Jam? Is this some kind of weird dream where I end up naked on the last day of school?), then came back in triumphant glory, or something like that. In the meantime, the Sox traded four prospects for Josh Beckett and Mike Lowell, and it remains debated to this day whether Epstein had a hand in the deal, tacitly approved it or would have vetoed it had he been fully in charge.

In less dramatic moves, the Sox replaced Mark Bellhorn by trading Doug Mirabelli for Mark Loretta and dumping Edgar Renteria on the Braves for Andy Marte and signing Alex Gonzalez. In an effort to revamp the bullpen, the Sox signed Rudy Seanez and Julian Tavarez and traded for David Riske as part of the deal that brought in Coco Crisp (and sent Marte to Cleveland).

Of course, bringing in Crisp was necessary because the Sox' incumbent center fielder, Johnny Damon, signed with the Yankees. We won't go into all the recriminations and drama, but needless to say, there were and there was. It was the biggest move in a relatively quiet Yankee offseason, as the Yanks signed Mike Myers, Kyle Farnsworth and Octavio Dotel in an effort to address their own bullpen issues but otherwise stood pat.

That March, SG ran the Diamond Mind simulations, adding a third 1,000-run set for PECOTA, which at the time was actually reliable because it was still run by Nate "Midas" Silver, who is now the best political blogger not named Ezra Klein or Jonathan Chait.