Now I’m leading MLB in wins. My name is _____________________:
A. Chien Ming Wang
B. Josh Beckett
C. All of the Above
Another question: will either of the two win the Cy? Will either deserve it?
This is where Brad et al say that it should be Beckett b/c Wang’s success is primarily due to luck….
I’ll admit that Beckett deserves it more this year.
I guess I haven’t been following, but did Beckett miss any time? Wang started the season a month late but they have about the same amount of starts..
I’m still voting for Santana though. His numbers (other than W-L) are still sick, even if it’s not his usual insanely sick.
Oh ya, not to mention Wang’s success is all luck anyhow.
Can we agree to ban the lucky Wang argument for this thread? We all need to agree to disagree and move on, it never gets us anywhere.
I also agree with Santana, I mean come on, can you imagine if he was on a good team? He would already have 20 wins. He’s only given up more than 4 earned runs this season ONCE.
I’m coming around to the idea that C.C. Sabathia may be the most deserving, especially with Bedard on the shelf for the rest of the season.
That being said, if one of our guys wins 20, we may end up with some more proof of the “East Coast bias”.
There are many 16+ game winners. I suspect the final month and the few extra wins might swing the voters, who are still in love with wins.
Santana’s actually not even on that. I’ll admit I overlooked Sab though.
Bedard got some sick numbers (and a reasonable W-L) for a last place team. Too bad people don’t vote for last place teams nowadays..
Hmm. I was going to say everything Quo just did. Almost word for word, since I didn’t realize until last night just how good Milliliter’s been this year.
If Beckett finishes strong and ends up with 20, it wouldn’t be a complete travesty to have him win it over CC…but it wouldn’t be fair, either. Sabathia ALREADY has an absurd 211 innings pitched, essentially the same ERA, and one fewer win. If Bedard can make another start or two–they haven’t shut him down officially, yet–I still give it to him, simply because you can’t ignore a 14 K/9, (or whatever it is) but like Quo said…unlikely. Oh, Santana still deserves it as well, and he might get it…but it’s not as wide a margin as usual. (Haren and Escobar should be considered, but they’ve been trending downward and I don’t like their chances)
Oh, and this isn’t a slight against Wang, but he really doesn’t belong in this conversation. Sorry. ERA’s about a half-run worse then the aforementioned group and–as has been well-documented–his peripherals aren’t your prototypical Cy-material. Point is, the other guys beat him in every demonstrable category, aside from wins where Beckett’s matched him.
A thread-jack, maybe, but looking at that page, I stumbled on:
Which Boston is leading the road attendence. Which seemed odd until I realize it’s slightly misleading – the Yank’s average is dragged down by the Sox, while the Sox’s average is dragged up by the Yanks!
Too lazy to do the math, but.. =)
Hehe, you missed that brouhaha, Lar, a couple weeks ago. USA Today did a big story on that.
Yeah, we cried havoc and let slip the dogs of war on that issue a while back, Lar.
Sabathia is even more impressive when you consider that only Paul Byrd beats him in BB/9, and his closest competitor (among Cy candidates) in K/BB (5.69) is Santana, whose rate is just over one below C.C.’s (4.61).
Fausto Carmona, barring injury, is going to be in this conversation next season. I think he will get his walks down and improve his K-rate enough to be up there with everyone else.
Paul – got link somewhere? =) Ya, I was sure I’m not the first, but just noticed that, hehe.
For someone with insane control, Wang walked a lot of batters this year. Hmm.
Here you go, Lar.
Yikes, forgot what a stain our most recently banned friend was, that thread reminded me.
Incidentally, not to upset the YFs here, but if the Yankees collapse, can we lift his ban? I think that would be fun.
It’s impossible to say any pitcher is a lock for the CY in the AL, unlike the senior circuit where Peavy wins it walking away from the field. I am pretty much in agreement with Josh; one would have to give the edge to C.C. at this point and though there are a few others that warrant consideration, Wang is not one of them.
> ban the lucky Wang
I must be 12 years old, because phrases like that still makes me laugh.
Ah, I went camping that weekend, so missed the whole thread. Thanks.
ag – to be fair though, his numbers are around the same from last year, when he finished 2nd. For some reason there seems to be more “outliers” this year though.
Please, guys. You don’t have to be a homer to recognize that the Cy is Beckett’s to lose. The guy is going to win 20 and he has all the peripheral numbers CY voters look for. On top on that he is the best starter for the best team in MLB, and has been a stud since day one.
Santana’s record against his divisional rival alone (Cleveland 0-5) is grounds enough for his dismissal this year. That is going to kill him.
As far as Wang. Compare his career stats with another sinkerballer -D Lowe- and tell me Lowe would not do as well starting for the Yanks.
A very, very good pitcher but unless he starts striking out batters like yet another sinkerballer -B. Webb- I would not hold your breath waiting on his first CY.
My 2 cents
I think there’s more pitchers having good years this season. Beckett and Santana both put it together whereas theys truggled last year. Lackey is a notch above where he was, while Santana has been a slight notch below. So it’s definitely opened the field.
RAW, I think the Cy right now is Sabathia’s to lose. But if he ends up with 18-19 wins, and Beckett ends up with 20, Beckett will win it.
AG, after I posted it and read it again, I got a chuckle too, don’t worry, you’re not alone.
> the best starter for the best team in MLB
That doesn’t really matter when considering the CY.
I’m not saying that Beckett doesn’t deserve the CY, but I disagree that it is his to lose.
Maybe. He has had a good year, no doubt. But the guy gives up over a hit per inning and batters have an .263 average against him. He also has missed time this year (incredible considering his 211 IP!).
I believe Josh has had the better year for the better team.
I think a better debate is for who will win the Rookie of the Year?
Wow, what a haul!
I’m pretty sure Dustin is running away with it.
He’s a ninja and Yankee fans hate him. It’s like Christmas.
He’s a ninja and Yankee fans hate him. It’s like Christmas.
I loooove how much Yankee fans hate him. Once he wins the ROY (barring injury or collapse), the Ecksteining of Pedroia is going to make YFs foam at the mouth in rage.
Well, maybe not, but it sure will be fun.’
And again, I don’t mind as much when people start talking about how “gritty” Pedroia is because, unlike Eckstein, Pedroia actually has the stats to back up the hype.
It’s truly irrational how much I hate Pedroia; I know that he’s actually really good. God I hate him. SO MUCH. It’s not because of the “arm slot” thing with ARod after he got elbowed; I thought that was funny. I dunno.. THE GNAT. Hate him. Damn he is really good though.
Hopefully he forgets how to throw the ball to first in a few years.
Kelvim Escobar is my Cy Young right now. His ERA is a full .3 R better than Beckett’s and he has just 2 less Ws.
I love the consistent reaction to his amazing play from YFs…
“Christ, that little shit!”
The Yanks fans hating Pedroia is hilarious to me…if incomprehensible.
I can kinda see why YFs hate Beckett, but how can you not love his description of the pitch Stairs smacked out of the park?
“a horse(bleep) changeup right down the (expletive) middle.”
Yes, Paul, hating Beckett, for example, I can totally understand. I can’t see a reason to bag on Pedroia except that he’s short and good.
I hate Pedroia’s face. Basically that’s my reason. Not very mature.
If Beckett wins the CY Young, I wouldn’t view it as some giant miscarriage of justice. I’m guessing in the minds of the voters that he is the front-runner. Sabathia, Escobar, Bedard (until his injury), Santana and Lackey all deserve it over him in my view, but he’s been great as well. It seems like it’s been a very strong year for top starting pitchers this season.
“Please, guys. You don’t have to be a homer to recognize that the Cy is Beckett’s to lose. The guy is going to win 20 and he has all the peripheral numbers CY voters look for. On top on that he is the best starter for the best team in MLB, and has been a stud since day one.”
15-7, 3 Complete Games, 1 Shutout, 174 IP, 154 Hits, 58 ER, 8 HR’s Allowed, 57 BB, 142 K’s, 2.99 ERA, 1.20 WHIP
16-7, 3 Complete Games, 1 Shutout, 211 IP, 213 Hits, 76 ER, 19 HR’s Allowed, 32 BB, 182 K’s, 3.24 ERA, 1.16 WHIP
16-6, 1 Complete Game, 0 Shutouts, 174 IP, 165 Hits, 64 ER, 12 HR’s Allowed, 36 BB, 165 K’s, 3.30 ERA, 1.15 WHIP
I am not going to include Wang because even though I am a Yankee fan, I don’t think he deserves it. He MAY deserve votes for MVP (I said votes, not the award) simply because he has kept us in contention for the Wild Card.
Taking how I feel about Beckett out of the conversation, his numbers aren’t as good as Escobar’s. Escobar has 2 more complete games, 1 more Shutout, less Hits same amount of IP, less ER, less HR’s allowed and a lower ERA. Beckett has him beat in K’s and walks. It’s unfortunate but Escobar may finish 5th in the voting (behind Santana, Sabathia, Beckett and Wang) simply because he plays on the west coast and really isn’t that well known.
Escobar also has had some horrid games. I mean horrid. Game scores of 13 (8 runs in 2.1 innings), 16 (7 runs in 4.1 innings) and 28 (5 runs in 2.2 innings). Fair or not, those stick in the minds of voters.
By contrast, Beckett’s never had a game score that low (closest: 5 runs in 5 innings). Sabathia’s had just one (16: 7 runs in 4 innings). Lackey’s had two in the 20s but only one in the teens. Santana has been just as consistent as Beckett in this sense (closest: 6 runs in five innings).
So, looking at consistency, Beckett and Santana are tops, followed closely by Sabathia. Lackey and Escobar have really laid some eggs.
Escobar has 5 outings where he gave up 5 or more ER’s. Included in that were his 2 worst efforts of 6 ER’s and 7 ER’s. Escobar also has 13 outings where he gave up 1 or less ER’s.
Beckett has 4 outings where he gave up 5 or more ER’s. Beckett’s worst outing was 6 ER’s on June 14th. Beckett has 8 outings where he gave up 1 or less ER’s.
Santana has 9 outings where he allowed 1 or less ER’s. He also allowed 6 ER’s just once. He also has 8 games where he allowed 4 or more runs.
Not sure it’s as cut and dry as that. All three have been darn consistent, but Escobar even with the 2 outings of 6 and 7 ER’s kept his team in more games then the other 2.
Escobar even with the 2 outings of 6 and 7 ER’s kept his team in more games then the other 2.
True enough, and I’m not disputing his candidacy or his legitimacy in claiming the award, but I know that when I think of Escobar, I remember how hard he’s gotten shelled more than once this year. I wonder if some of that same sentiment would leak into the minds of the voters.
I’m sure the voters won’t do that though — I’m sure they’ll research everything thoroughly and not vote based on half-formed suppositions or assumptions. ;-)
“It’s unfortunate but Escobar may finish 5th in the voting (behind Santana, Sabathia, Beckett and Wang) simply because he plays on the west coast and really isn’t that well known.”
I think we are on the same page… :)
Don’t leave Lackey out of the conversation. He’s put up comparable numbers. And Danny Haren is probably a better candidate this year than Wang, IMO. Glad we have Wang, though. Leads the MLs in victories since the start of the 2006 season …! I’m just saying. He’s been lucky for two years now. Here’s hoping his luck continues for another 10-12.
Leave a Comment
Save my name, email, and website in this browser for the next time I comment.
This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.
Next post: Pair of Aces
Previous post: The View From Up Here: Jays-Sox Gamer XIV
Spalding’s World Tour