Matsuzaka Contract Pool

Since we all did such a stellar job predicting the posting fee, I thought it made sense to gather YFSF conventional wisdom on Daisuke Matsuzaka’s pending (hopefully!) contract.  I’ll start the guessing. I say DM gets 7 years/$146 million.  It’s Scott Boras, after all.  ;-)

Place your guesses in the comments.  If the Sox do sign him, the closest speculator walks away with an official YFSF mug of choice.

[EDIT: I was joking about the 7/146.  But I recuse myself from the contest proper.  My guess is 5 years, $68M. 

When guessing please provide only two numbers: number of years, inclusive of options, regardless of whether they are held by the the team or player, and total dollar amount (assuming all options exercised), not including any incentives.

If you need to re-submit guesses with these parameters please do.  This thread will be closed in 7 days.]

57 comments… add one
  • 4 years, $56 mil.

    yankeemonkey November 16, 2006, 5:17 pm
  • 5 years, $61 mil.

    Kluv November 16, 2006, 5:19 pm
  • 5 years, $90 mil

    Anonymous November 16, 2006, 5:20 pm
  • 4 years/$52M with a singing bonus.

    Paul SF November 16, 2006, 5:20 pm
  • I hear Dice-K’s got quite a voice, but nevertheless, I meant a signing bonus.
    Although, really, wouldn’t he be worth more if he could play the game AND lead the singing too?

    Paul SF November 16, 2006, 5:22 pm
  • 3 years $45 million

    Eric November 16, 2006, 5:38 pm
  • 4 years, $50 million, plus various performance incentives. Maybe a vesting or club option for a fifth year for good measure.

    mouse November 16, 2006, 5:40 pm
  • 4/51

    LocklandSF November 16, 2006, 5:47 pm
  • 4/58, plus what mouse said.

    Devine November 16, 2006, 5:57 pm
  • 3 years – $39 mil

    batty November 16, 2006, 5:57 pm
  • 3/40 + tons of incentives..

    Lar November 16, 2006, 6:01 pm
  • Can we get some clarity on the constest? Are we guessing every particular of the contract or just the years/total dollars?

    LocklandSF November 16, 2006, 6:03 pm
  • Ya, I was just going to ask that. Incentives makes it kind of odd, but yaaaa..

    Lar November 16, 2006, 6:04 pm
  • 3 years with option for fourth year. Total value: $52 million.

    Todd November 16, 2006, 6:06 pm
  • Todd, player option or club option?

    LocklandSF November 16, 2006, 6:11 pm
  • 3 years at 36 or 37 million and an option year with the player option being somewhere around 9 million.

    walein November 16, 2006, 6:14 pm
  • Club option is 15 or 16.

    walein November 16, 2006, 6:15 pm
  • Contest clarified in main post. See above.

    SF November 16, 2006, 6:17 pm
  • Three years with fourth year mutual option, 59 million dollars total value. Full no-trade clause. Incentives for innings pitched, all-star selection, ROY and CY.

    attackgerbil November 16, 2006, 6:21 pm
  • I already bought a YFSF mug. I want a YFSF mug shot of YF and SF wearing each other’s hats! :)

    attackgerbil November 16, 2006, 6:22 pm
  • Well then I’ll just stick to the original 4/$52M.

    Paul SF November 16, 2006, 6:24 pm
  • I’ll up mine a little more to 3/42.. so what’s the rule for the “closest”? Correct numbers of years and closest with salary? (Just making sure that was obvious enough!)

    Lar November 16, 2006, 6:32 pm
  • I reserve the right to decide who is closest. I don’t have a good answer, Lar.

    SF November 16, 2006, 6:40 pm
  • The 5 year 90 million belonged to me, my name just did not show up.

    Anonymous November 16, 2006, 6:43 pm
  • Again no name….Rob

    Anonymous November 16, 2006, 6:44 pm
  • 4 Years, 51 million. (that’s my revision). The 4th is the option.

    walein November 16, 2006, 6:51 pm
  • 4 years, $52 million

    rcolonna (sf) November 16, 2006, 6:58 pm
  • what kind of lame ass Price Is Right move was that!!!!!??????

    walein November 16, 2006, 7:06 pm
  • 4 years, 47.3 million

    yankeesnj November 16, 2006, 7:08 pm
  • 4 years, 60 million

    Nick-YF November 16, 2006, 7:13 pm
  • So if I bid $1, do I automatically win if everyone else overbids? ;-)

    Paul SF November 16, 2006, 7:17 pm
  • Yes. And then you get to come over to YFSF headquarters and spin an enormous wheel that makes beeping noises.

    SF November 16, 2006, 7:24 pm
  • I can’t see this as short term deal unless there Sox get lots of options and Boras takes a discount so he can go back to the table for a bigger sum later. This seems unlikely, however, given the enormity of the post fee. That number is so large that it needs to be amortized over a reasonable term, or else DM effectively becomes a 20m+/year player, even discountiong the revenue sharing issues. I think SF may have some trouble scoring this competition, because my guess is we’re not going to get a single 3y/40m 4y/55m 5/75 kind of deal, but some combination thereof, with lots of incentives, and a heavily loaded back-end option.

    YF November 16, 2006, 8:00 pm
  • Like I said above, I can score the competition any way I want, YF!
    I think I’ll be able to make some decision general value and years, and like I said, I am counting options and their values as part of the overall, without any incentives included in the calculations. Shouldn’t be too difficult for me to decide on a winner. If he signs.

    SF November 16, 2006, 8:23 pm
  • I also reserve the right to not award the prize to a YF, if I so feel. ;-)

    SF November 16, 2006, 8:24 pm
  • 4 years 54 million and a big signing bonus to offset Boston not granting him free agency after the 4th year

    TJ November 16, 2006, 8:58 pm
  • 3/44.

    birdmanofvt November 16, 2006, 10:29 pm
  • Is this like the Price is Right — whoever gets closest without going over?
    I’ll say 0 years, $0, just ‘cuz no one else has.

    Hudson November 16, 2006, 10:30 pm
  • Sorry to derail the conversation a little bit, but have you guys seen what they’ve been saying about Matsuzaka at BP? In particular, Will Carroll’s article, which includes youtube evidence of no fewer than two absurd pitches? Holy Christ. YFs, if you weren’t shook before, you will be now.
    Four years, $60MM.

    tom yf November 16, 2006, 10:34 pm
  • 3 years 45 million
    4th year
    Club option-17 million
    buy out- 6.1 million
    5th year
    club option -18.9 million
    6th year
    club option -20 million
    7th year
    club option – 23 million

    anoNYmouse November 16, 2006, 10:41 pm
  • Hudson, making no bid at all doesn’t qualify.
    I already guessed 4/$52M, but just in case I’ll also guess 1 year, $1.

    Paul SF November 16, 2006, 11:34 pm
  • Tom-YF, we’ll have to share the award.

    Nick-YF November 17, 2006, 6:35 am
  • 4 years $52.1M

    Yankee Fan In Boston November 17, 2006, 9:09 am
  • Hahaha, this is getting very ebay!

    Lar November 17, 2006, 9:10 am
  • Ha! True, Nick. I didn’t read anyone’s guess before posting, so that was an honest coincidence.

    tom yf November 17, 2006, 10:20 am
  • 6 years/$75 million

    Tim November 17, 2006, 11:10 am
  • 10/$252M. Boras works his magic again, brings in Hicks to help whip Theo into a frenzy.
    Or, okay: 5/$72M (incl. incentives/bonus).

    Spidey November 17, 2006, 1:47 pm
  • 3 years – 43.5 million.

    sf rod November 17, 2006, 3:30 pm
  • My suggestion, with that $0/0 year bet was that the Sox may not come to any agreement with Zak-man/Dice-K/Yawkey-tori/whatever the preferred nickname of the moment is now.

    Hudson November 17, 2006, 7:33 pm
  • 2/25

    dc November 19, 2006, 9:36 pm
  • I’ve thought about this for a few days now:
    4 years @ 68million.
    Year number 5 a team option at 20 mill.
    Contract could include incentives to bring him to 20/per based on performances and stats. The Red Sox have included these types of incentives in a few of the latest contracts they’ve dolled out.
    That’s my guess: 4/68.

    Brad November 20, 2006, 11:46 pm
  • You’ll think I’m crazy but: 6 years, 52 million, with an incentives clause raising it to $60 mil.
    just a hunch…

    Nick-YF December 13, 2006, 9:15 pm
  • you beat me to it, Nick.

    Brad December 13, 2006, 9:30 pm
  • why did my post come in last so it looks even more rediculous. Jeez. DELETE THAT MESS, SF.

    Brad December 13, 2006, 9:31 pm
  • Looks like kluv, second post was pretty darn “closer” than the rest, though Paul’s first post may hold some sway if you want to give credence to the “grassy knoll” types that are so vocal right now about Seibu kickbacks.

    attackgerbil December 13, 2006, 9:40 pm
  • Only Tim deduced a six year contract, but I also stipulated that no options were to be qualified, only total package INCLUDING options. But Tim was also off by $25 mill, so there’s a whiff.
    Kluv might have it.
    All in all, Scott Boras did a number on us. Which is why I am very glad Epstein et al are running the Sox. I’d have a $478M payroll right now If I were running the team…

    SF December 13, 2006, 9:45 pm
  • i think 6 year/52million

    Mason April 29, 2007, 6:17 pm

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