Off-Day Musings

The Red Sox are off today, meaning their fate is in the hands of others — the Rays and Yanks are both active, so I guess we’re Rangers and Mariners fans tonight. With no game tonight, consider this your off-day thread. Potential topics include:

  • Manny Ramirez (.600/.636/1.100) may have a better line with his new club than Jason Bay (.423/.500/.692), but the Red Sox are 5-1 since the acquisition of Bay. The Dodgers are just 2-3 since acquiring Ramirez.
  • Jacoby Ellsbury has five hits in two games, after needing seven games to accumulate his previous five hits. He hit his first home run since June 15, compiled his first multi-RBI game since July 3 and scored more than once in a game for the first time since July 9. Is he pulling out of his slump? Well, on July 8-9, Ellsbury went a combined 6 for 10 with two doubles against the Twins. He then went 9 for his next 63 (.143/.169/.159).
  • Luckiest team in the American League: The Angels (nine wins over Pythag). Second luckiest? The Rays (seven wins). The Red Sox are two wins worse than Pythag.
  • League’s best starters? In Boston: 3.83 ERA. League’s fifth-best relievers? In Boston: 3.64 ERA. League’s second-best offense? In Boston: 113 OPS+. Why isn’t this team the best in the AL again?
  • Hmm, maybe it’s this: a fourth-worst 4.11 ERA in save situations, including eight losses, tied with Minnesota, Seattle and Detroit for worst in the league.
37 comments… add one
  • Here’s something else: since the start of the month Lowrie has 4 XBH and 11 RBI’s (in 23 AB). In the 78 AB before that this season he only had 6 XBH and 11 RBI.

    Atheose August 7, 2008, 12:12 pm
  • I thought we shouldn’t look at wins.. =P
    Besides, a 2-3 record in the NL West _is_ being competitive!

    Lar August 7, 2008, 12:31 pm
  • Besides, a 2-3 record in the NL West _is_ being competitive!
    Truer words were never spoken.

    Atheose August 7, 2008, 12:35 pm
  • I thought the Sox bullpen had underperformed across the board but your figures show that it is really the back of the bullpen (i.e. save situations) that they have faltered. Since it doesn’t seem that Papelbon has had all that bad of a year, what is the story here? Have there been lots of other relievers thrown into save situations who have subsequently faltered? Or am I missing something?

    IronHorse (yf) August 7, 2008, 12:40 pm
  • IH – well, technically “hold” situations count as save situations – so if you come in with a 1-run lead in the 7th, it’s still technically a save situation – and relievers get blown saves if they blow it. I imagine that’s probably the bulk of it..

    Lar August 7, 2008, 12:47 pm
  • Ahh – good point Lar. Yeah, and I think Okajima has been pretty rocky this year as have a couple of the other late-inning guys. Tx.

    IronHorse (yf) August 7, 2008, 1:01 pm
  • I think Lar’s right here. Papelbon’s got a 2.02 ERA in save situations, Okajima even has a respectableish 3.86 ERA. But Hansen was at 6.10 in 12 save situations, Lopez is at 5.87 in 13, and Delcarmen is at 6.89 in 20. That’s 45 appearances in close games by three relievers who allow more than a half-run per inning — or, to say it another way, who are more likely to give up a run than not if they’re called upon in a save situation.

    Paul SF August 7, 2008, 1:06 pm
  • All of those back of the pen stats are probably why the Red Sox have lost 15 straight 1-run road games but have the best run differential in MLB.
    They have to blow out opponents to win.

    I'mBillMcNeal August 7, 2008, 1:15 pm
  • Giles would be a better bench option than Sean Casey, though, we’d be tight on back up infielders if that was the option. Maybe they’re just beefing up the bench, or trying to actually rid themselves of Coco. Who knows. Maybe Tampa Bay wanted him and the Red Sox are just stopping them from getting him?

    Brad August 7, 2008, 2:06 pm
  • Everyone seems to think this was a blocking move to keep him away from Tampa or LAA.

    Paul SF August 7, 2008, 2:41 pm
  • Manny hit another HR today. Me thinks he will have better numbers post-trade than Bay.

    Sam-YF August 7, 2008, 3:10 pm
  • I’ve read that he has a no trade clause to Boston (without his approval obviously) and I’m not sure how that works with the whole waivers thing.

    rootbeerfloat August 7, 2008, 3:22 pm
  • Of course he will, Sam. He’s Manny Ramirez. He’s going to have better post-trade numbers than almost everyone in baseball.
    You say it as a slide to Boston, or one to Bay, because either is both unappreciated and quite uncalled for.
    Me thinks that Boston has done just fine with Bay. Don’t you?

    Brad August 7, 2008, 3:25 pm
  • Brad – I said it because it was generally accepted here that Bay and Manny were equivalent forces offensively.
    Yes, Bay has done just fine thus far.
    Also, I didnt realize that it was only OK to criticize yankees and the yankees front office but not Boston or Red Sox players. I didnt mean it as a criticism, Im not sure why you chose to read that into it.

    Sam-YF August 7, 2008, 3:40 pm
  • It’s fine if you want to critique the Boston front office, but don’t just mention the statistics side of the equation. At least qualify the statement with some reference to why Boston moved him in the first place, which had absolutely nothing to do with the numbers.
    Yes, I freely admit Bay is not the HITTER that Manny is, but to phrase your statement as if Boston made some kind of huge mistake by trading Manny to LA (and yeah, that’s exactly how you wanted it read) is simply pouring gasoline onto the fire.
    Manny’s best days are behind him, while I’d bet Bay’s are in front of him, and at about ten or so million dollars cheaper next year. So, in the end, I think the trade has helped both franchises right now, and probably in the future, since as you point out, Manny is doing fantastic at the plate.
    But, so is Bay.
    On another note, I don’t think it was ever “generally accepted” by anyone that Bay is a better hitter, or even the same hitter as Manny. Bay is a better player, and unless he is the worst human being alive, probably a better guy to have as a teammate.
    The numbers are very close, and that had bay being protected by Doug M and Xavier Nady, to very inferior players in comparison.
    Let’s look at this deal at the end of next year, long after NL pitchers learn that they don’t exactly have to pitch to Manny in that lineup.

    Brad August 7, 2008, 3:59 pm
  • Look Brad, it wasnt my intention in any way to fuel any fire. its not clear why you have lashed out at me for a simple 2 sentence comment that was simply an addendum to the post above. Paul’s post brought the comparison into the open and I added to it when I saw manny hit a HR. I didnt feel it was necessary to rehash the entire conversation about trading Manny.
    You and many other SFs on this board have posted comments criticizing yankee players and ownership that were much more overtly offensive than the statement I made above. (see: A-Rod and Hank Steinbrenner threads) My post really wasnt to offend but if it did so what? Why wasnt that statement fair game?

    Sam-YF August 7, 2008, 4:09 pm
  • Brad, your statement that only “the worst human being alive” would be a worse teammate than Manny is easily the most inflammatory thing in this thread. If a YF had said that, I’d be all over them. But from you, given the pathological Manny-hate you’ve already displayed, I guess I’ll just ask you to cool it with the hyperbole a little.

    stuck working August 7, 2008, 4:27 pm
  • Ok, you’re right. I take it back.
    The statement was completely fair game.
    I guess, on some levels, I’m just tired of all the “Manny is a better hitter” crap, when Bay is the better baseball player. Every single time Manny hits a HR, the impending flow of smack about how the trade was not a good one for Boston has come from every outlet.
    I wasn’t jumping on you on purpose, I just get tired of reading about how Manny is feasting, and very little acknowledgment of Bay’s success, which is well above average to date.

    Brad August 7, 2008, 4:33 pm
  • Stuck, you can have your opinion, and I’ll have mine.
    I happen to wish the absolute worst for number 99.

    Brad August 7, 2008, 4:39 pm
  • Brad – I said it because it was generally accepted here that Bay and Manny were equivalent forces offensively.
    I think Brad is overly reactionary when it comes to Manny, we’ve certainly had that out on the site. But I think that this statement is also inaccurate, at least for the broad number of SFs who posted about it. I believe the argument that held some strength was that Bay’s superior defense and baserunning made up for whatever offensive compromises the Sox had to make in losing Manny, bringing the two players much closer to each other if not into equivalency. And that’s ignoring the money aspect, which doesn’t impact the on-field play but certainly offers the Sox (as a business) something of value for next year.

    SF August 7, 2008, 4:53 pm
  • Brad, I know that and that’s fine. That’s a perfectly understandable response to me. There have been plenty of players who’ve left teams I care about on whom I have wished nothing but ill.
    But that doesn’t mean you need to exaggerate Manny into some monster, like Mussolini in left field or whatever. As you’ve admonished others, stick to the facts, you know? While I have a lot of ambivalence about Manny leaving, I still support the trade for all the reasons you do, so it’s not like we’re on totally different sides of this equation.

    stuck working August 7, 2008, 4:53 pm
  • because it was generally accepted here that Bay and Manny were equivalent forces offensively
    That is some funny shit. What’s next besides a comparison of apples and mules?
    We’ll be lucky to ever see a cleanup hitter such as Manny play for the Good Guys again. The Sox FO fucked up royally with this one. No excuses.

    Dirty Water August 7, 2008, 5:53 pm
  • In order to totally offend:
    I think Manny Ramirez batting as well as he has versus Jay Bay hitting as well as he has means nothing in terms of the teams’ records. The Red Sox would have been better off with a guy batting .600 than a guy batting .450. That’s just math.

    walein August 7, 2008, 6:00 pm
  • Also, SF…Bay, as far as I know, is NOT “superior” to Manny as a defender. He may actually have worse defensive metrics over the past 2 or 3 seasons.

    walein August 7, 2008, 6:02 pm
  • hmmm, wouldn’t have just been easier to say…
    “marte got shelled again today. me thinks the pirates are pretty happy with karstens.”
    when comparing kittens to cats one should take into account the size of the tumor cat.

    sf rod August 7, 2008, 6:22 pm
  • “He may actually have worse defensive metrics over the past 2 or 3 seasons”
    Is this true?? If so, does it account for the home stadium they each played in??

    IronHorse (yf) August 7, 2008, 6:42 pm
  • Regardless of Mannys better numbers in the 5-6 games since the trade, and even if the team records were reversed (i.e. Sox 2-3 dodgers 5-1) I still like the trade.
    I’ve loved watching Manny hit since seeing him with the Indians in the postseason in the 90s, and I was unsure how this would turn out, love Manny the hitter, but the rest of it was getting very old, very fast.
    The two option years were going to be a tough call either way but the FO had their hand forced (whoevers fault that was – I dont really care) and I think it has turned out for the better. The situation now gives more payroll flexibility down the track, and for this season I was very concerned that this team were teetering between either having to fight tooth and nail for the WC or really challenging for the pennant. With the circus leading up to the trade deadline it was tipping well towards a WC scrap.
    Its probably a coincidence that the kids look to have picked things up and probably naive optimism from me, but I think this team could really turn it on now with a fresh outlook and come home strong.
    Good luck to Manny in LA, I hope he mashes and I also hope LA signs him to a big contract for many years. I’ll take what we have hear every day of the week and twice on Sundays.

    Dan August 7, 2008, 6:53 pm
  • hear? WTFF?
    here.

    Dan August 7, 2008, 6:55 pm
  • Bay, as far as I know, is NOT “superior” to Manny as a defender. He may actually have worse defensive metrics over the past 2 or 3 seasons.
    This is completely untrue. Bay is considered average, maybe slightly below. Ramirez is considered, even when adjusting for the park, to be one of the worst left fielders in baseball.
    I think at this stage in their careers, Ramirez and Bay are essentially equivalent hitters, Ramirez slightly better but not by enough to make much difference. The overall package easily makes Bay a more valuable player than Ramirez, again at this stage in their careers.

    Paul SF August 7, 2008, 8:43 pm
  • Take a look at Bay’s defensive numbers since 2006. Bay is not a superior fielder. He’s young, and maybe his injury history has had some effect on how he’s fielded the last few years but he is not the guy who was considered a strong fielder in 05 and 06.

    walein August 7, 2008, 10:54 pm
  • “at this stage in their careers, Ramirez and Bay are essentially equivalent hitters, Ramirez slightly better but not by enough to make much difference.”
    If you look at their numbers you really cannot say that Jason Bay is “equivalent” to Manny as a hitter at this point. Manny’s worst year (last year) is as good as Jason Bay’s prime age good year. There is nothing in Bay’s history to say that he will do anything but taper off or get hurt for the rest of his career. Manny may taper off, may get hurt a bit, but has proven that the numbers he can and most likely will put up will be much stronger than what Jason Bay could offer.

    walein August 7, 2008, 11:00 pm
  • Jed Lowrie has matched Julio Lugo’s RBI total for the year at 22.
    Lugo has played 82 games and had 261 ABs.
    Lowrie has played 35 games and had 101 ABs.
    Furthermore, Lowrie has not made any errors.

    Kazz August 8, 2008, 12:49 am
  • There is nothing in Bay’s history to say that he will do anything but taper off or get hurt for the rest of his career.
    This is the biggest load of BS I’ve heard in a while. Bay has had one injury-filled year (2007), and he still played in 145 games despite the injury.

    Atheose August 8, 2008, 8:25 am
  • Manny’s worst year (last year) is as good as Jason Bay’s prime age good year.
    This is also very untrue. Last year Manny OPS+’ed 126. Every year of Jason Bay’s career (with the exception of last year) has been significantly higher than that: 145, 132, 150, 138, 93, and 140.

    Atheose August 8, 2008, 8:28 am
  • “Bay has had one injury-filled year (2007), and he still played in 145 games despite the injury.”
    …and he was super terrible for all 145 games that season. Like…really bad.

    walein August 8, 2008, 7:20 pm
  • I never said he didn’t suck last year; he DID suck. But you said that Bay will taper off and get hurt for the rest of his career, when there is ZERO evidence to suggest that this is likely.

    Atheose August 8, 2008, 7:30 pm
  • if no one has coined the nickname “damaso gagne” yet, let me be the first.

    sf rod August 8, 2008, 7:31 pm

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