Open Thread

Discuss news, gossip here.

We’ll start it off with a tip from YFiB, who notes that the Herald is reporting that Manny wants to sit down with Sox Ownership.

102 comments… add one
  • Manny has made over 160 million dollars in the last eight years from this front office. He should wait until the front office is ready to sit with him, and stop shooting his mouth off, realize that he’s going to make twenty million dollars next year, and maybe the one after that, and stop being freaking rediculous with this extension BS.
    Want an extension? Try acting right, and start jacking them out at your career rate again, otherwise, be happy with the twenty million and please fade into the sunset afterwards.

    Brad July 17, 2008, 12:00 pm
  • Dear Baseball Gods,
    Please let the Red Sox acquire Matt Holiday from Colorado. That’s all I wish for. Someone to replace Manny Ramirez and his big mouth. I realize that there is no real “replacing” him, but if you could just do me this small favor, and make it possible to move Mr. Ramirez to the Mets and let them sign his extension, I would be forever grateful.
    Signed,
    Brad.
    PS – Could you also get Timlin to retire as well?

    Brad July 17, 2008, 12:04 pm
  • This quote made me raise an eyebrow:
    “I want no more (expletive) where they tell you one thing and behind your back they do another thing,” Ramirez told The Herald. “I think I’ve earned that respect, for a team to sit down with me and tell me this is what we want, this is what we want to do.”
    And obviously John Henry said he found it “personally offensive,” and rightly so, if it’s not true. I wonder if there’s any particular instance where Manny feels he’s been lied to, because this was a tact Pedro used, as well, and Nomar, too, for that matter. I’m not sure it’s productive because there’s an assumption when you’re dealing with contracts that you’re in some pretty hardball negotiations. Complaining about it seems naive.
    Also, it seems Manny would have had more of a case under the previous regime, whih frequently did jerk around star players (Mo Vaughn, Jose Canseco, Mike Greenwell, Roger Clemens) come contract time, and as a result, the team was generally avoided by players in free agency. Based on the reported clubhouse atmosphere — and the Red Sox’ fairly newfound status as a team players actually want to join — Manny’s claims just don’t seem to hold up.

    Paul SF July 17, 2008, 12:19 pm
  • Please let the Red Sox acquire Matt Holiday from Colorado. That’s all I wish for.
    Me too! And trade Buchholz and Lester and Ellsbury to get him!
    Holliday –
    Career home splits: .364/.427/.659
    Career road splits: .277/.341/.449
    Funny that the “hack” PeteAbe you called out knows more than you do.

    Anonymous July 17, 2008, 12:22 pm
  • Paul – I don’t mean this to flame, just curious – do the Damon/Pedro situations changed any? Just wondering because it’s relatively recent, and Damon/Pedro were stars of 2004, after all..

    Lar July 17, 2008, 12:29 pm
  • Meanwhile – Love that Manny! Good times! All defenders speak up!

    A YF July 17, 2008, 12:30 pm
  • As far as rumors go…Sexson to the Yankees I pray is unfounded. That guy is a pylon.

    krueg July 17, 2008, 12:44 pm
  • Holliday –
    Career home splits: .364/.427/.659
    Career road splits: .277/.341/.449
    Why look solely at the last two years, which show he’s gotten sig. better in that departmet. Those numbers are heartily skewed from the first seasons, where it was terrible.
    He’s a damn good hitter at home and away, but whatever.
    Manny is hack, and piece of garbage, and I want him off the team. I have a hard time even rooting for him anymore, and I’d gladly trade Ellsbury and Masterson for Holiday.
    And, If the “hack” did his homework, he’d understand the differential between home and away has gotten better and better each year, with the current year being the best to date. But that would be too much to ask, I guess.
    But, who am I to care for stats?
    2005:
    .357 – .409 – .593 – 1.00
    v.
    .256 – .313 – .416 – .729
    2006:
    .373 – .440 – .692 – 1.13
    v.
    .280 – .333 – .485 – .819
    2007:
    .376 – .435 – .722 – 1.16
    v.
    .301 – .374 – .485 – .860
    2008 (to date)
    .368 – .441 – .638 – 1.08
    v.
    .301 – .400 – .459 – .859
    See the trend here? They’re all going up.
    Yeah, Pete definitely knows more than me.
    Why not compare other numbers just to make sure?
    Why not break it down into stadium numbers, where he’s horrible in Petcoa and Dodger stadium, which has skewed him downward.
    What else could we use to support his trend upwards?
    Or was it just easier to say “he hits better at home than on the road” “he’s overrated”?
    Just look at the numbers before shooting off your mouth, or in Pete Abe’s case, your chubby little fingers.

    Brad July 17, 2008, 12:51 pm
  • “As far as rumors go…Sexson to the Yankees I pray is unfounded. That guy is a pylon.”
    Sorry, krueg, but he could serve a purpose against LHP and at 1B – call it the old Shelly Duncan role. And once they decide to drop a catcher, they have spot for him. It’s worth the cheap gamble.

    A YF July 17, 2008, 12:53 pm
  • “Why not compare other numbers just to make sure?”
    It’s called selective sampling. You can show anything you want that way.
    Sure, Holliday *might* be getting better on the road. But he’s still 250 points better at home. That’s huge. And .859 from a RF is good but not great.
    “Why not break it down into stadium numbers, where he’s horrible in Petcoa and Dodger stadium, which has skewed him downward.”
    This way you really can get the numbers to show whatever you want.
    Hey, keep praying for the Sox to get Holliday. Maybe if we both pray hard enough it will happen!

    A YF July 17, 2008, 12:57 pm
  • I’ll speak up. Manny can be maddening. I think the incident with the traveling secretary is more troubling than any other Manny antics I can think of, most of which I find overblown by the WEEI types. But this statement doesn’t really bother me that much.
    He’s also the only sure HOFer on the team. If his production by the end of the season is in typical Manny territory, I think the team should pick up the option.

    ricelynnevans July 17, 2008, 12:58 pm
  • Hell has frozen over…
    http://www.murraychass.com/about.php

    LocklandSF July 17, 2008, 1:08 pm
  • I’m not going to go so far as to say that Manny has a point here, and his description does seem to fit the pre-2003 owners. But the front office debacle of 2005-06 isn’t exactly long-forgotten, even if it didn’t directly affect the players or Manny specifically. I just don’t know if Manny is referring to perceived slights to himself, or if he’s just paranoid that negotiations will escalate into Pedro/Damon/Epstein drama.

    FenSheaParkway July 17, 2008, 1:09 pm
  • That’s exactly my point, A. You missed it though –
    By simply stating that he’s better at home than he is on the road is being selective as to what you want to analyze. You HAVE to break it down, where that first couple years really put a strain on the bottom end.
    I was being sarcastic by adding in park factors.
    On the record though, who is better away from Colorado than they are in it?
    And, I will keep praying. You do the same.
    It’s not selective sampling to point out the difference in home and away numbers from year to year.

    Brad July 17, 2008, 1:14 pm
  • Lockland, I saw that on FJM. It’s funny when people who spend the last two years writing about blogs go and create a blog!
    Also, Holliday’s road OPS has increased dramatically every year of his career, to the point where he’s a damn fine road hitter. I posted about this last week on here.

    Atheose July 17, 2008, 1:16 pm
  • But it’s not a blog, Lock!
    Sure. A web-based display of writing by Murray and his friends on the topics of the day. Not a blog. Uh huh. He hates blogs. And bloggers.
    Hysterical. It’s almost as if the “about” page was written by a method writer writing like Murray might if he wrote an “about” page for his blog.

    SF July 17, 2008, 1:16 pm
  • “Sorry, krueg, but he could serve a purpose against LHP and at 1B – call it the old Shelly Duncan role.”
    What’s that role, to wave ineffectually at breaking balls as they go by for strike 3?
    Heh.

    ponch - sf July 17, 2008, 1:19 pm
  • No, Sexson is a great pickup. Holiday is a terrible one.
    Don’t you understand how it goes yet?
    PS – Shelly Duncan never had a role.

    Brad July 17, 2008, 1:21 pm
  • Here’s what I wrote last week:
    Holliday road stats:
    2004: .654 OPS
    2005: .729 OPS
    2006: .819 OPS
    2007: .860 OPS
    2008: .904 OPS
    His numbers are weighed down by his first two horrible years, but after 2005 his road numbers have increased dramatically.
    Posted by: Atheose | Tuesday, July 08, 2008 at 02:52 PM

    AYF, if you want to ignore the facts and look at his numbers as a whole just to prove your point, go right ahead. But I sure as hell don’t want to see Holiday playing for the Yankees next year, because he’s a damn good player no matter where he calls home.

    Atheose July 17, 2008, 1:27 pm
  • Richie Sexton OPS+:
    2005: 144
    2006: 117
    2007: 84
    2008: 90
    No, Sexton is a fantastic choice. Really.

    Atheose July 17, 2008, 1:29 pm
  • Wait – So A thinks Sexson is good chance for the Yanks?
    Is that assumption based on the the picture as a whole, or are you opening up the book and looking at things a little more closely?
    I mean, are you looking at salary, v. LHP, v. RHP, defense? Or, are you just looking at his overall numbers and calling it good? Because when I look at the numbers as a whole, it’s a terrible move.
    But again, when I look at the numbers individually, and see where he’s trending or where he’s not – it makes sense.
    Maybe you have selective analytical skill sets?

    Brad July 17, 2008, 1:32 pm
  • edit.
    choice for the Yanks.
    Atheose, it makes no sense to, you know, make sense.

    Brad July 17, 2008, 1:33 pm
  • Sexton’s OPS against lefties:
    2000: 0.719
    2001: 0.966
    2002: 0.736
    2003: 1.005
    2004: 0.773
    2005: 1.116
    2006: 0.763
    2007: 0.752
    2008: 1.045
    Sporadic.

    Atheose July 17, 2008, 1:34 pm
  • Ath, it’s Sexson, not Sexton, just for the record.

    SF July 17, 2008, 1:34 pm
  • Thanks SF, I’m a noob. Sexton sounds better; Sexson is just weird!

    Atheose July 17, 2008, 1:35 pm
  • “Sexson is just weird!”
    …and a terrible hitter, which is why the arguably worst team in the league decided that they’d be better off paying him not to play for them.
    there was a bar in seattle last year that had an ongoing beer special. they would charge according to sexson’s batting average. so, you’d pay less than $2.25 for a beer.
    now, bill james wouldn’t use that in an argument regarding his worth, but it still amuses me.

    Yankee Fan In Boston July 17, 2008, 1:40 pm
  • hard to stay in business doing that. ha.

    Brad July 17, 2008, 1:44 pm
  • Sure, Holliday looks like he’s getting better on the road. But again, he’s not the same hitter – not even close – away from Coors.
    And you got 2008 wrong – it’s:
    Home – 1.079; Away – .859
    http://www.baseball-reference.com/pi/bsplit.cgi?n1=hollima01&year=2008
    So you have no idea what his peak is. Yup, exactly the guy I want to be trading for – and big talent at that. Maybe if you join in the praying with Brad and I we can make it happen!
    “No, Sexton is a fantastic choice. Really.”
    Who said anything close to that? But this Yankee team has a need for him. Sad but true.

    A YF July 17, 2008, 1:45 pm
  • brad-
    hard to stay in business charging $2.25 for beer, or hitting .225?
    i suppose either would be plausible.

    Yankee Fan In Boston July 17, 2008, 1:51 pm
  • When will the Yankees sign Barry Bonds??? Lefty replacement for Matsui and will play for the minimum (amount of steroids).

    pbc July 17, 2008, 1:51 pm
  • “you have no idea what his peak is”
    Nor do you. Nor do I know the peak of any young player, but rather, I look at the numbers and come to my own conclusions, as do you.
    However, I can safely assume that Manny has peaked, and is on a steady decline down statistics hill. Holiday however, is not.
    How do you, or I, know what will happen to him in Fenway or anyone else based on his road numbers in the National league and his home numbers in Colorado.
    This was the same argument against Beckett, coming from the NL to the East, but somehow, that’s worked out just fine.
    I’m not saying that it’s a lock, but I am saying that Holiday is damn good hitter no matter where he is, and I’m willing to take that bet to rid myself of Ramirez.

    Brad July 17, 2008, 1:56 pm
  • I said Sexson in my original post SF!!! ;)
    The guy is a bum. Plain and simple. I don’t think we need another HR or K kind of guy in the lineup. Not to mention my 76 year old grandmother is faster. I’d rather take my chances with Thong Stache at first anyday…
    Bonds?????? Don’t even say it. No f-ing way. If we can somehow get rid of Abreu’s sorry-ass, that would be a positive move in my mind…

    krueg July 17, 2008, 1:57 pm
  • Absolutely, YFIB.
    i wish there was a bar serving that kind of offer around here. ha.

    Brad July 17, 2008, 1:57 pm
  • Bonds would be a far better choice than Sexson. Sure they both had the worst years of their career in 2006 and 2007, but the difference is that in Barry’s worst year he still OPS+’s 170! That’s TWICE the OPS Sexson had.

    Atheose July 17, 2008, 1:57 pm
  • If Manny is going downhill and super-expensive…doesn’t that mean he’ll end up with us next year??? ;)

    krueg July 17, 2008, 1:58 pm
  • Yeah, Sexson’s batting average for 2006 and 2007 was .295 and .315. Wait, those aren’t his batting averages, those are his fucking on-base percentages.
    And by the way, Giambi hits lefties better than Sexson does.

    Atheose July 17, 2008, 2:01 pm
  • If Manny is going downhill and super-expensive…doesn’t that mean he’ll end up with us next year??? ;)
    The cognitive dissonance would cripple at least half the city (and a lot of the visitors to this site) if Manny came to the Bronx to play.

    SF July 17, 2008, 2:02 pm
  • Yeah, I think Manny in a Yankees uniform would tear a hole in the space-time continuum. I can accept Damon shaving to play for the Steinbrenners, but Manny ain’t gettin rid of those dreds.

    Atheose July 17, 2008, 2:04 pm
  • “How do you, or I, know what will happen to him in Fenway or anyone else based on his road numbers in the National league and his home numbers in Colorado.”
    I’d be fine with him if the cost was only cash. But it won’t be. You’re talking a huge package of prospects then a huge contract – all based on inflated Coors numbers. Again, better the Sox than the Yanks – at least to me. Keep praying with me! Atheose – you too!
    “This was the same argument against Beckett, coming from the NL to the East, but somehow, that’s worked out just fine.”
    Did it? One excellent season and two average ones? For the cost of Hanley? The addition of Lowell really makes that trade, and that was blind luck. No one knew he would rebound like he has. Indeed, his inclusion was why Theo didn’t do the deal before he went apeshit.

    A YF July 17, 2008, 2:06 pm
  • Holliday’s OPS+ (park adjusted):
    2004: 103
    2005: 114
    2006: 137
    2007: 150
    2008: 148
    Manny’s OPS+:
    2004: 152
    2005: 153
    2006: 165
    2007: 126
    2008: 137
    Manny is eight years older than Holliday. They’re trending in opposite directions. Holliday is a damn fine player no matter where he plays, and I would love to see him on the Sox.

    Atheose July 17, 2008, 2:08 pm
  • Let go of Bonds – it ain’t happening. Besides the Sox had more to gain by signing him.
    “And by the way, Giambi hits lefties better than Sexson does.”
    Not always. And Sexson is the better defender. For the cost, Sexson is a fine experiment. He’d get 50 ABs then see what happens.
    Again, sadly the Yankees have a role for him. Whether he does okay is an open question and the cost is so low they have nothing to lose – except a few more Betemit starts at 1B.

    A YF July 17, 2008, 2:10 pm
  • there was a time early in the season, when manny was all about “the secret”, that i honestly felt as though i was at risk of falling in like with the guy. i thought to myself, “oh… so THAT is the manchild side people always talk about…”
    i generally have a fondness for people who are a little odd. i thought my years of detesting his eye-humping HRs and general mannitude could possibly melt away like an ice cap in an al gore documentary…
    thankfully he regressed to the mean.
    my head would probably explode if he ever wore… you know… those vertical lines, i’d rather not use the proper term…

    Yankee Fan In Boston July 17, 2008, 2:11 pm
  • You’re talking a huge package of prospects then a huge contract – all based on inflated Coors numbers.
    Holliday will make 9.5 mil in 2009 and 13.5 in 2010. Manny would be getting 20 mil in both years. Holliday is almost half as cheap for more production.
    And again, OPS+ is park adjusted. Keep ignoring it I guess, whatever makes your argument work.

    Atheose July 17, 2008, 2:12 pm
  • One excellent season and two average one..
    hahahaha. Oh, and the whole shutdown playoff ace thing kind of made it worth it. I could care less about 19 wins a year when the ball drops in the playoffs. As do most fans.

    Brad July 17, 2008, 2:12 pm
  • For the cost, Sexson is a fine experiment.
    Whether he does okay is an open question and the cost is so low they have nothing to lose

    Sounds EXACTLY like the arguments the SF’s on this site used to defend the Colon signing… but no, that was a HORRIBLE decision!

    Atheose July 17, 2008, 2:14 pm
  • How many times do you need to learn, Atheose, that OPS+ is adjusted and not normalized? It helps but it doesn’t do away with the problem.
    The cost and uncertainty of Holliday make his acquisition extremely risky. Now that I think of it – Theo doesn’t have the cohones (Cashman either) to make it happen in a trade. The cost is too high when he can simply sign a free agent or keep Manny.

    A YF July 17, 2008, 2:14 pm
  • “Sounds EXACTLY like the arguments the SF’s on this site used to defend the Colon signing… but no, that was a HORRIBLE decision!”
    Ummm, again, for the tenth time, FPT, the problem was, ummmm, that fat Colon blocking a younger turd.
    Sexson would be blocking no prospect in the Yankee organization. Neither Miranda nor E.Duncan are right-handed hitters. Nor are they ready. Shelly Duncan was, but he’s done for the season.
    “Holliday is almost half as cheap for more production.”
    And then what? You let him leave as a free agent? Brilliant!
    “And again, OPS+ is park adjusted”
    Do you understand the difference between “adjusted” and “normalized”? Because obviously you’re having trouble with the concepts.

    A YF July 17, 2008, 2:19 pm
  • John Henry responded
    Per EEI, and obviously adlib:
    We’re very disappointed in Manny’s remarks.
    Insinuating that we’ve been anything other than honest and up front with Manny is an isult to everyone involved in this process.
    He is a key member to this team, and both world championship teams.
    We’ll talk to Manny when the time comes, and hopefully we can avoid this kind of issue in the future for the good of this team.
    Henry responded in an email.

    Brad July 17, 2008, 2:22 pm
  • How many times do you need to learn, Atheose, that OPS+ is adjusted and not normalized? It helps but it doesn’t do away with the problem.
    To quote baseball reference:
    “OPS+ is OPS (see above) normalized for both the park and the league the player played in. See below for a full description.”
    http://www.baseball-reference.com/about/bat_glossary.shtml
    Swing and a miss, AYF.

    Atheose July 17, 2008, 2:23 pm
  • i know that i am supposed to be on your side, A YF, but duncan was not ready.
    he hit .175/.262/.281 with a lofty 47 OPS+ in the bigs this year.
    again, i am no stat geek, but even i know enough to realize that these are not indicative of a major league-ready batter.

    Yankee Fan In Boston July 17, 2008, 2:24 pm
  • By the way, how is Masterson’s transition to relief working out? You know, cause his 118 ERA+ is perfect for the bullpen!

    A YF July 17, 2008, 2:24 pm
  • And because AYF looks idiotic for not understanding what OPS+ is, he changes the subject to Masterson. Laugh out loud.

    Atheose July 17, 2008, 2:27 pm
  • A – why are you so against Holiday?
    I think it’s because you’d rather the Sox not get him, and keep a declining Manny. There is no other reason outside of the Helton argument.
    Why would the Sox let him walk after his contract? If he sucks, yes. If not, they will spend the money to keep him. Do the Red Sox not sign free agents who are worth the money? I mean, I can think of a few times they have paid and gotten nothing (we don’t need to go there at all), and paid little and gotten a lot, but what makes you think they “let him walk”. Thats stupid/nonsensical projecting.

    Brad July 17, 2008, 2:27 pm
  • Good job, FPT, you found a quote!
    But do you understand the concepts?
    If so, explain to me:
    PRO+ = 100 * ( OBP/lgOBP + SLG/lgSLG – 1)/BPF
    BPF there is an adjustment.
    YFiB – How many ABs in the majors did Duncan get this year, as compared to last year? Which is the true Shelly?

    A YF July 17, 2008, 2:29 pm
  • In 2007, Holliday, playing in an offensive environment 13 percent above the 100-plys-year norm of MLB, put up a line of .340/.405/.607, for an OPS of 1.012.
    Using Baseball-Reference’s stats neutralizer, had he been a member of the 2007 Red Sox, those numbers would be .331/.397/.594, for an OPS of .991.
    In 2008, on the other hand, Holliday is batting .337/.421/.553 (.974 OPS). Put him in a 2007 Red Sox uniform, and those numbers skyrocket to .348/.434/.574, for an OPS of 1.008.
    Granted, this is partly because offense was higher in 2007. But it’s also because Holliday is a damn fine hitter who would be moving from a park with a 108 hitters’ factor to one with a 106 factor. He also would be surrounded by a better lineup on a better team in a league that has lost most of its top starters to the NL.
    Based on his OPS+, recent splits and the neutralized stats, Holliday should (barring any league-adjustment issues) see little change in his numbers between Coors Field and Fenway Park.

    Paul SF July 17, 2008, 2:29 pm
  • It’s the all-star break, A. When was he going to pitch? What will you say if he’s a shut-the-door bullpen guy?
    Why do you wish to start a freaking fight all the time? Why be so damn stupid when it comes to just having a common sense argument? Who mentioned Masterson? At what point did that name come up in this thread? Why the need to bring it up? Just to be a dick?

    Brad July 17, 2008, 2:29 pm
  • uh oh… ESPN says the yankees signed sexson. done deal.
    http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=3493648

    Yankee Fan In Boston July 17, 2008, 2:31 pm
  • “A – why are you so against Holiday?”
    Where did you ever get that from?
    Reading is fun-da-mental!!!1111!!!!
    “What will you say if he’s a shut-the-door bullpen guy?”
    I’ll say his potential is being limited and potentially harmed. The exact same thing I said of Joba. Even more so when Colon is getting starts ahead of him.

    A YF July 17, 2008, 2:34 pm
  • Let’s get a breakdown of everything:
    Atheose: Holliday is good, OPS+
    AYF: He sucks on the road
    Atheose: OPS+ is park adjusted
    AYF: It’s park adjusted, but not normalized!
    Atheose: No, it’s normalized too
    AYF: Wait, the concept is different!
    Also, excellent use of the “Lose/Lose Fallacy”. By stating earlier that “Theo doesn’t have the cahones to make it happen in a trade”, you’re setting it up so that you can call him a loser either way. So, to recap: No True Scotsman? Check. Lose/Lose? Check. Building up quite a resume!

    Atheose July 17, 2008, 2:35 pm
  • duncan got 74 ABs last year and 54 this year. only 9 less games. he had half as many hits this year and his slugging percentage was almost halved.
    ouch.
    i like the kid, he seems like a good kid and i liked rooting for him, but that doesn’t inspire a lot of confidence. let him get healthy and get some more work in at a lower level. he could still improve, but he didn’t look ready.

    Yankee Fan In Boston July 17, 2008, 2:37 pm
  • No, reading is easy. Understanding is fundamental, which is where my question comes from.
    You have spent all day arguing that Holiday isn’t worth the money or players because of his stats, when everyone else in the world thinks differently, so I’m asking what it is about him that makes you think it’s such a bad idea. I mean, we’ve already debunked the home and away crap, so what else is there that makes you think Holiday is such a waste of effort?
    And, Yanks signed Sexson. Who’s screaming desparation now? Why not pick up Bonds and Sosa too – they’re both available.

    Brad July 17, 2008, 2:38 pm
  • Last week a restaurateur I know offered me a series of dinners at a new restaurant that isn’t open yet. The chef he hired to run the joint did a bunch of test presentations and the verdict was that the food had amazing potential. Great technique, but the flavors weren’t quite meshing. And I had a chance to get a regular seat at this restaurant (potentially a three star joint in most peoples’ minds based on pedigree, but also a potential clunker). But, like I said, a) it wasn’t open yet, b) I wasn’t sure when it would actually be serving real food and c) the chef was a notorious hothead, prone to making dishes with impeccable skill but all over the place taste-wise, sometimes inedible. So I initially turned down the offer and asked my restaurateur friend, instead, for a reservation at the best new place in town. Open, proven, and amazingly underpriced – five course prix-fixe with wine pairings for like $59, well under market. The only issue with this place was that it wasn’t open every night, there were still questions about the kitchen equipment’s reliability. At first I got nothing back from the restaurateur, but after a few minutes he looked at me and said, “sure. You can have a regular table at that other place. You may be making a mistake, though, since my new spot is going to turn heads and take it’s place amongst the best in the city. In fact, I’ll throw in a bottle of some old Bordeaux at the price I paid for them for your first few meals. I don’t know whose cellar the wine came from, but it’s a great Chateau in an off-vintage, so it could be absolutely fantastic”. I initially turned down the wine, since he had paid a decent sum, but he said that the wine would help subsidize my $59 meal and decided it was a throw-in worth taking since the meals were still so underpriced.
    I finally went to the restaurant, and the first few meals weren’t great. Inconsistent. Two great ones and then a fallen souffle. Another great one and then a miscalibration on the salting. The kitchen stayed open, though, dispelling worries on that front.
    And then, bang. The chef hit his stride. A set of meals that were among the best I had had. And then, it got better. He won a James Beard award, the restaurant got a stunning review from one of the toughest critics in town. And guess what: my prix fixe stayed at $59 bucks, despite the fact that most restaurants of this caliber were charging $90 and up for similar meals. As for the other chef? Well, he got a great review as well. Exceeded most peoples’ expectations. Soigne. But I didn’t care, I had had my foie gras and eaten it too. Can’t complain about the decision, I am happy for that other chef and also eight delicious pounds heavier. With many more meals down the road.
    Oh, and the wine? Unbelievable. I just bought more.

    SF July 17, 2008, 2:42 pm
  • If Shelley was any good…wouldn’t he have made a major league roster before now? He was fun to watch because he is a maniac but I would rather have a more solid all around player on the bench. Power off the bench? No…how about speed and defense on the bench??? I’m no baseball expert but it seems fairly obvious to me…
    SEXSON????? NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!! I guess he can’t be worse than Betemit…another guy that is terrible. Can you really be considered a switch hitter when you bat under .100 from the right side???

    krueg July 17, 2008, 3:06 pm
  • SF: are you high or something??? ;)

    krueg July 17, 2008, 3:07 pm
  • …and if so can I come over??? :)

    krueg July 17, 2008, 3:07 pm
  • k, gotta flip back to the previous page for the inspiration.

    SF July 17, 2008, 3:09 pm
  • So is that analogous to Holliday-vs-Manny, or Beckett-vs-Hanley?

    Atheose July 17, 2008, 3:09 pm
  • Great analogy, btw.

    Atheose July 17, 2008, 3:10 pm
  • Still waiting for you FPT to explain (and understand) how a ballpark adjustment is far different from equalizing across ballparks. And it is very different no matter how much you may believe otherwise.
    And Paul – care to explain how that 13% increase for Coors becomes a 20-25% increase for Holliday?
    I also said Cashman doesn’t have the cohones either. Why should they? It’s a very risky move and they could get that offense much cheaper on the free agent market. But yeah, I hope the Sox do trade for him. They’ll at least deplete the farm significantly and perhaps spend alot of cash and not get the same value in return.
    “Yanks signed Sexson.”
    Good – he fills a need for them. He’s cheap and he’s not blocking any prospects. Sad but true on both counts.
    YFiB: I was just trying to point out that this year’s stats are tough to use to properly evaluate Shelly. His playing time was sporadic too. Hopefully he’ll get another shot next year to contribute.

    A YF July 17, 2008, 3:11 pm
  • yeah, SF has decided upon a new tactic. i can’t wait to see how this works itself out.

    Yankee Fan In Boston July 17, 2008, 3:13 pm
  • Nm, definitely Beckett-Hanley. That wine was REALLY good last October, goes great with the chill in the air. So great it won an award for best wine during a one-week span.

    Atheose July 17, 2008, 3:14 pm
  • Who knows, YFiB, but I do know I can’t afford to gain another eight pounds.

    SF July 17, 2008, 3:16 pm
  • wine is so stupid.

    Yankee Fan In Boston July 17, 2008, 3:18 pm
  • wine is so stupid.
    You know not of what you speak.

    SF July 17, 2008, 3:19 pm
  • That 8 pounds wasn’t too bad, SF: you lost a lot of weight the summer before that anyways.

    Atheose July 17, 2008, 3:20 pm
  • Yup, wine is for Fat Pussy Toads.

    A YF July 17, 2008, 3:20 pm
  • Wine is wonderful at times, WFIB. I’m quite partial to Shiraz myself.

    Atheose July 17, 2008, 3:20 pm
  • YFIB*

    Atheose July 17, 2008, 3:21 pm
  • i love wine (both the actual and appreciate the goateed metaphorical wine), but was attempting to anticipate what was coming.

    Yankee Fan In Boston July 17, 2008, 3:22 pm
  • I get WAY too drunk on wine…can’t control myself on that stuff. Beer makes me a jolly good fellow though!!! (that and 300+ LBS)

    krueg July 17, 2008, 3:22 pm
  • SF: you’re ancient ways are above me… ;)

    krueg July 17, 2008, 3:23 pm
  • (correction) your…not you’re. Jeez, what did I go to school down here or something???

    krueg July 17, 2008, 3:23 pm
  • Krueg, wine makes me pretty happy too. It also gets better with age!

    Atheose July 17, 2008, 3:25 pm
  • OH, and for the cool people here…the 08-09 NHL schedule came out today!!! Buffalo Sabres = 08-09 Stanley Cup Champions!!! (maybe now I’m high???)

    krueg July 17, 2008, 3:26 pm
  • i am so angry with myself for not making a unitesticular wine joke.
    shame. i am so shamed…

    Yankee Fan In Boston July 17, 2008, 3:27 pm
  • Sorry, krueg, but he could serve a purpose against LHP and at 1B – call it the old Shelly Duncan role. And once they decide to drop a catcher, they have spot for him. It’s worth the cheap gamble.
    has anyone heard from morgan ensberg in a while? if morgan was a “lefty masher” than sexson must be a “lefty inappropriate toucher”.

    sf rod July 17, 2008, 3:29 pm
  • i am so angry with myself for not making a unitesticular wine joke.
    You mean something along the lines of “Sometimes wine is better squeezed from one grape instead of two” ? Or were you thinking more like “It’s the quality of the grapes, not the quantity, that matters most” ?

    Atheose July 17, 2008, 3:29 pm
  • thank you, atheose.
    either of those is perfect.

    Yankee Fan In Boston July 17, 2008, 3:30 pm
  • …and if so can I come over??? :)
    HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

    Brad July 17, 2008, 3:32 pm
  • “if morgan was a “lefty masher” than sexson must be a “lefty inappropriate toucher”.
    Yeah, except how many games had Ensberg played at first before this season?

    A YF July 17, 2008, 3:34 pm
  • i had no idea the crutch for this year had turned into a lack of defensive 1st baseman thing. i had been under the belief that it was scoring less than 3 runs a game in 33% of the games played this year….or 3/5ths our rotation….or….i can’t keep up.

    sf rod July 17, 2008, 3:41 pm
  • excellent point, Rod.

    Brad July 17, 2008, 3:46 pm
  • It’s the injuries, Rod. The injuries.
    Coors Field has this rap, gained from its time before the humidifier, as a ballpark from which all offensive stats must be taken with a grain of salt. While Coors remains one of the best hitting parks in the league, it’s roughly on par with Fenway. To get a better idea of how much Coors has come down, here’s a comp of three sets of Holliday stats.
    Matt Holliday, real time:
    2006: .326/.387/.586, 34 HR, 114 RBI
    2007: .340/.405/.607, 36 HR, 137 RBI
    2008: .337/.421/.553, 24 HR*, 86 RBI*
    (*Projected based on current totals)
    Matt Holliday, 2007 Red Sox:
    2006: .315/.376/.567, 32 HR, 107 RBI
    2007: .331/.397/.594, 35 HR, 132 RBI
    2008: .348/.434/.574, 25 HR*, 87 RBI*
    Matt Holliday, 2000 Rockies:
    2006: .349/.412/.631, 38 HR, 138 RBI
    2007: .367/.434/.653, 40 HR, 169 RBI
    2008: .384/.472/.632, 29 HR*, 111 RBI*
    Coors Field is clearly not the park it used to be. Pre-humidifier Coors would have turned Holliday into a Ruth or a Bonds. Instead, he’s “merely” just a Ramirez or Rodriguez, benefiting from a home ballpark much like Red Sox hitters do.

    Paul SF July 17, 2008, 3:57 pm
  • sadly, i think that you are underestimating at 33%. they could go out and sign bonds even with the certain stellar sexson performance we are all about to witness, and they’d still miss the playoffs.
    one of the many reasons i have been hoping against bonds, and probably the only unemotional reason, is that it wouldn’t matter… so why get tangled up in all that he brings with him? we’d still need at least one frontline starter (and probably another legit middle of the rotation guy) or they’d be lined up for a 1st round and out scenario at best, in my painfully amateur opinion.
    sad.
    so very, very sad.

    Yankee Fan In Boston July 17, 2008, 4:01 pm
  • OPS+ isn’t park-normalized in the sense that there’s another better stat for it (that I can’t find for the moment). I think it just adjusts toward the norm for an above average park, but it doesn’t fully factor it out..
    There’s a stat that calculates the expected probability of bases/hits depending on the velocity of the ball hit and the spot it landed (which is also fielding independent (individually anyhow, it is obviously important as an aggregate) and stuff. This would fully normalize the data (though does not “fix” actual production, since it would give “hits” to say, a Giambi hitting into the overshift) independent of park, which OPS tries to do by fudging. Of course, this is probably too hardcore!

    Lar July 17, 2008, 4:06 pm
  • Thanks, Lar. Always nice know that another person has a brain around here. No surprise – it’s a YF!
    Again, Paul, there’s still that 13% increase for Coors today that you yourself cite. And then you could try to explain the 20-25% increase that Holliday shows.
    You got to love a projection that suggests a player would be Ruth or Bonds. Really insightful stuff…

    A YF July 17, 2008, 4:23 pm
  • You got to love a projection that suggests a player would be Ruth or Bonds. Really insightful stuff…
    Thank you for proving yet again you either are incapable of understanding or willfully refusing to understand what I’ve posted. If you don’t think Coors Field had that kind of effect on hitters in the late 1990s/early 200os, then you care as little for baseball as I suspect you do.
    As to the 13 percent difference, Red Sox hitters are playing in a park/league/context that is 8 percent above the overall MLB offensive average since 1901. Would anyone here willfully refuse a 95 percent version of Matt Holliday? Didn’t think so.

    Paul SF July 17, 2008, 5:48 pm
  • “Would anyone here willfully refuse a 95 percent version of Matt Holliday?”
    Ummm, except again, he’s been 20-25% better at Coors. So that’s closer to 85-90% version. That’s an OPS of .800 to .900 – funny enough right in line with his road numbers.
    Just money – hard to refuse.
    Add in the many top prospects, and it’s a risky call. But, yeah, Theo – do it! Better you than Cashman.

    A YF July 17, 2008, 6:04 pm
  • > OPS+ isn’t park-normalized in the sense that there’s another better stat for it (that I can’t find for the moment)
    b-r uses *OPS+ which does use BPF

    attackgerbil July 17, 2008, 6:13 pm
  • “b-r uses *OPS+ which does use BPF”
    Formula printed above. Again, it’s an adjustment not a true normalization. Like Lar said, it adjusts toward to the norm but doesn’t equalize it.

    A YF July 17, 2008, 6:18 pm
  • Ummm, except again, he’s been 20-25% better at Coors. So that’s closer to 85-90% version.
    Except Fenway has similar park effects to Coors. We’d have to go to the actual differences of the parks — dimensions, wind, etc. — but there’s nothing inherent about Coors’ general effect on hitting to suggest it is inflating Holliday’s numbers. A lot of players hit better at home, either because their comfort level is higher or they tailor their swing or what have you, so simply looking at his home/road splits as some kind of evidence that he would fail outside Coors is simply not very useful. It’s at least not any more useful than doing the same for any other hitter in any other hitter-friendly ballpark. My objection is the use of Coors as some sort of boogeyman because of conditions that no longer exist there. It’s just a hitter-friendly park, not much different than Fenway right now.

    Paul SF July 17, 2008, 7:08 pm
  • “there’s nothing inherent about Coors’ general effect on hitting to suggest it is inflating Holliday’s numbers.”
    So say you. His BABIP is always 50 to 80 points higher at home (and as high as 120 points). That’s once the ball is in play. Hard to imagine how it’s hitter driven. He swings – the ball either falls in or it doesn’t. From everything I’ve read it’s extremely difficult to alter your swing at the major league level based on venue game to game. The pitchers are throwing too fast.
    You justified the “95% of Holliday” by the difference between Coors and Fenway. Problem is, Coors for Holliday is a bigger difference. We won’t know whether he’s truly a .850, .900, .950, or even 1.000+ hitter until he leaves. That range is huge – so much so that it makes trading prospects for him (then signing him to a big contract) a risky proposition.
    “It’s just a hitter-friendly park, not much different than Fenway right now.”
    By your own admission it’s still a 5% difference. That in itself is significant and indicates that some conditions still exist there. The question isn’t whether he would “fail”. It’s how much will he succeed. Unfortunately the answer is much more uncertain than most other hitters in the game. Coors still adds a layer of uncertainty for a position player that hasn’t called elsewhere home. Indeed, you look at Holliday’s numbers in the minor leagues, as a somewhat older prospect, and he never showed that same level of power in any full season.

    A YF July 17, 2008, 7:40 pm

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