Given the results of the last two games, it looks like we can put to bed the whole "Yanks' bullpen has been the best since X" business. The Angels have rallied to tie their game with the Yanks against Andy Pettitte, then took the lead on the first pitch from Nate Robertson, and now have runners on second and third, two out.
Late gamer, but comment away!
18 replies on “Penned Up: Yanks-Angels Gamer”
It’s hard to feel all that upset about the Yankees play these past two games. They just can’t beat the Angels at home. Oh well. Although, the Lohud GT is always high comedy whenever the Yankees are losing.
And, heh, their bullpen has STILL been better than the Sox’s since mid-May.
I don’t really know why we have to ‘put that to bed’ if it’s still true.
I’m not even watching this game, but I’m reasonably certain that you’ve fingered the wrong Robertson here, Paul.
I despise the Los Angeles Angels.
I gotta run the numbers on the Yanks’performance in this stadium the past decade – cringe-worthy I’m sure.
Not sure where the urge to define the Yankees bullpen by 2 games comes from Paul but it seems rather silly. Unless of course you’re prepared to judge the quality of the Sox bullpen/rotation/lineup/etc. by any two games of my choosing.
Yanks putting on a ridiculous homer-parade to try to claw back into it but the hole is so deep it’s going to take at least a few more runs and they’re running out of outs…
They are like gnats eating me alive. Dink singles, taking extra bases on errors (which have been plentiful these past 2 days) and on missed umpire calls, reaching first safely on strikeouts that can’t be coraled (twice today alone!), stealing, aaggghhhh! I can not stand this team. Other than A-Rod, who has multi-homer games against the Angels regularly, this stadium seems to place a bizarre hex on the Yankee organization.
Abso-freaking-typical Yankees-Angels game: Yanks surge to 4-run lead, end up scoring 8 runs (7 of them off of 5 HR’s, including 2 from A-Rod) while the Angels bide their time and pick away, scoring 14 runs (only 3 of them coming off of their total of 2 HRs) with all kinds of aggessive running, a torrent of singles, doubles, triples, steals, Yankee-errors………..get out of Anaheim now and never go back.
And, heh, their bullpen has STILL been better than the Sox’s since mid-May.
I assume the statistic on which this is based is ERA, which is highly misleading for relievers.
For the season, the Sox’ bullpen has a Win Probability Added of 4.86. The Yanks’ has a WPA of 2.77. That’s a difference of more than two wins, and far better than looking at the bullpens’ ERAs over a nonrandomly selected stretch of games — be they two or 32.
Finally found, thanks to Fangraphs, a stats site that breaks reliever stats down by month.
The Yankees by the traditional measures — ERA, WHIP — had one of the best bullpens in baseball in June, with an ERA roughly two runs better than the Red Sox’ pen.
But their WPA was below the Sox’, which would seem to indicate poor performance in games where the bullpen made a difference in the game (neither team was particularly good in this respect last month).
Entering today’s game, the Yankees’ pen was again one of the best in the league for July, but the eight earned runs in 3.2 innings torched that one. They’re now below the Sox in ERA (though Justin Masterson is trying to even things back up as I type). Not sure what today will do for the WPA stats, which the Yankees also led in for July. Small samples really play havoc.
All that to say the Yankees’ pen may have been better than the Sox’ since the timeframe in which their performance started not being horrific nearly every outing — but I would expect that to be the case for any group of pitchers over the course of 100 innings or so, especially given the flakiness of middle relievers.
Nice for the Yanks to share the AL East lead for a good day before dropping two games behind. Lame.
I think WPA for relievers is probably just a measure of “clutch” (though maybe that’s obvious). The last two games where they gave up leads of 4 runs will probably destroy the WPA for a bit (I say this without looking at it though).
That said, the Yanks bullpen lost tons of WPA earlier on, and since WPA is sum, I can easily believe that.
But ya, small sample set, and for a game like today’s, they can “get” a WPA of -.5 or whatever, and that’s huge swing.
Also, I don’t know how many ways a bullpen can gain a WPA – a save situation is probably 10-15% (I think, I forgot and I’m too lazy to look it up) but a typical “no run inning”, even in leverage, might only be a few percent.
While losing a game or two (giving up a run in a tie game is like an easy 20-30%, and easily be close to 50%.)
I don’t know, I’m babbling. I should look up things, haha.
And of course, the Yanks score more runs in general, and maybe earlier on, so it puts them in situations where their hitting got a bunch of WPA, but then the other team comes back and tie it (against the pen, say) they lose like 30% on the tie game, and maybe more.
Okay, I finally looked it up. For today’s game, the Yanks bullpen is -.360 WPA. For yesterday’s, it’s -.320 WPA.
That’s -.680 in two games. Haha, that’s pretty bad.
In the meanwhile, in the Ace game where he pitched 3 innings and change, while the pen owned most of the game, they picked up .3, not bad. But that’s a game where they pitched 5.2 innings.
4-2 game the game before, where Coke gives up a HR, but Hughes and Rivera shuts them down, for a .273.
Okay, let me find a token good starter game.
7/3 against the Jays, Burnett dominated in a 4-2 game, Hughes + Rivera + Coke for 20%.
I don’t know. Maybe I got it all wrong. Hehe.
Well, I’m happy the Angels beat the Yanks, but the rest of the time I can pretty much agree with all my Yanks-fan friends that the Angels are our least-favorite non-rival team in the AL. What a horribly frustrating team to play.
I couldn’t care less how the Sox’ and Yanks’ pens compare except when they play head-to-head but generally find it lame to lead a game-thread with a shot at the team concerned and/or their fanbase. And I think picking on 2 games – conveniently two of the worst of the season for the bullpen being assessed – to prove the point is equally lame. Then again, I didn’t do a post myself so I get what I deserve I guess.
Eloquence from today’s Replacement Level Yankee gamer between the Angels and Yanks:
welcome back ih…i think paul was taking a shot at nick’s “tidbits” post from friday…i cringed a little when i read the post, because i felt a jinx coming…perhaps if paul had framed his dig differently, like: ever since being tied with the sox for 1st place a few days ago, the yanks, particularly the bullpen, have stunk, not winning a single game over that stretch, while the sox have enjoyed great success in going undefeated over that same timeframe to regain sole possession of first place…see, when used appropriately, small sample sizes are fine, convenient even…just like picking random stats to prove a point…
“think paul was taking a shot at nick’s “tidbits” post from friday…i cringed a little when i read the post, because i felt a jinx coming”
Tell me about it! I’ve been jinxing and reverse jinxing with my posts all year. I believe the Yanks started playing .800 ball after I declared the AL East race finished two weeks ago and now this. Still, Paul didn’t refute the greatness of Derek Jeter and Mariano and Jesus Montero so I guess there is something to those claims.
I keep waiting for Derek Jeter to show how old he is, and it never happens, so I’ve given up hope. Same for Mariano. As for Montero, I’ve gotten so used to hype about Yankee prospects, I don’t even worry about it anymore. Maybe Montero’s the next I-Rod. Maybe he’s the next Kevin Maas/Jose Tabata. Time will tell.
“…I’ve gotten so used to hype about Yankee prospects…”
is it really hype if the players are getting it done in their current assignments?…
funny, i don’t remember that much hype about jeter when he first came up, and i don’t see a whole lot of hype about montero…some experts have recognized that the kid’s good [top 50], and he is just a kid after all, but time will tell if that translates to the majors, especially since he’s all hitter, no defense, which will probably require a position change…i don’t consider that to be hype…i’m sure that some of what you refer to as hype these days is the yankee organization’s attempt to promote that they’re not one-dimensional with regard to talent acquisition…but, i know i don’t need to remind you paul that the yanks aren’t the only team in possession of a very active hype machine…