Phenom Analysis

Stuff-wise, Buchholz has him beaten, badly. Buchholz’ fastball has better velocity. His curve (I could call his curve the "hand of God" deuce too, huh?) and changeup are clearly superior as well. Better stuff, better momentum, a quirky delivery, great deception and an unusual release point and you have my reasons why I’d choose Clay Buchholz. Kennedy has been profiled as a No. 4/No. 5 starter at best. Even with just slightly above average stuff, I believe that he has a higher ceiling than that, with No. 4/No. 5 starter being the worst of his outcomes. I say this even though I see a lot of Mark Prior in his mechanics.

Hardball Times’ Carlos Gomez has his first impressions of Ian Kennedy and Clay Buchholz, here — it’s in-depth and intense, with frame-by-frame looks at each of their deliveries.   Be sure to click through.

10 comments… add one
  • Dammit, your prospect with two major league starts is clearly superior to our prospect with one major league start!

    Jordan Meisner September 4, 2007, 8:56 am
  • I find this type of analysis fun if not a little confusing. Frankly, it’s a little hard for me to see what the author is seeing when he talks about different motions, but I’m glad that there are people who can make meaning of such things. In the end, his conclusions aren’t especially surprising. Buchholz has been considered the higher ceiling prospect than Kennedy by almost all prospect experts. I guess the one nice thing is that this guy thinks pretty highly of Kennedy, especially his command.

    Nick-YF September 4, 2007, 9:07 am
  • Buchholz just threw a no-hitter. Do we really need this much analysis to be told that he looks like he’s going to be better than Kennedy?
    I would think a no-hitter would be pretty self-explanatory.

    KurticusMaximus- YF September 4, 2007, 9:53 am
  • I only got to see the last inning of the no-hitter, but he (Clay) sure did look impressive.
    How great is it that two of MLB’s biggest teams are counting on youngsters from their own system in September? It’s great for the game, regardless of who will be better LT.

    John - YF (Trisk) September 4, 2007, 9:57 am
  • One thing I see in Clay (from the analysis) it appears that he is throwing uphill. If you look at the side by side you see Ian is square (scarecrow) while Clay’s back shoulder is lower then his front shoulder. It may not be on every pitch, I haven’t seen him enough, but if that is the norm for him it could lead to arm troubles. (I certainly hope not, but that’s a lot of stress on the arm)

    John - YF (Trisk) September 4, 2007, 10:04 am
  • Just the act of throwing a no-hitter means very little as far as projecting a players’ future and even current skills. Some of the very best pitchers in history have thrown zero and some very mediocre pitchers have thrown them. There are many reasons to be high on Clay if you are a SF and of course to be excited about a no-hitter thrown by your team. But using his performance in one game to compare to another player doesnt work. (granted a YF made said comparison)
    I too am excited about the many young arms in our rivalry. I just hope we can get Hughes figured out fast.

    Sam-YF September 4, 2007, 10:15 am
  • *cough* Annibal Sanchez. Where is he now?
    By the way, my friend pointed out to me that Buchholz’s draft pick was the Met’s.. from Pedro. Interesting how that turn out sometimes..

    Lar September 4, 2007, 12:24 pm
  • And it’s hard not to be excited even as a Yank.. Kennedy might not ever be a #1, but frankly, the Yanks might not ever need him to be a #1. Everything’s just gravy..
    Of course, let’s see which Yankees team show up today against Seattle..

    Lar September 4, 2007, 12:26 pm
  • I agree. Seven big bowls of gravy:)

    Brad September 4, 2007, 3:26 pm
  • zzzzzzzzzzzz

    dc September 4, 2007, 10:30 pm

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