Updated with picks from SF and YF. Updated again with picks from John and SF's postseason picks, which I neglected. Updated with Nick's picks.
Who ya got?
The Replacement Level Yankees Weblog's projection simulator has the Red Sox winning the AL East, averaging 94 victories and making the playoffs 60 percent of the time. None of the most commonly used projection systems picks anything less than an AL East title for the Red Sox. Likewise, the Yankees are a unanimous second-place pick, averaging 92 wins in SG's simulations.
If that seems low and almost boringly close (as it's frankly destined to be, considering that three of the projection systems are Marcel-based or Marcel itself, which is nothing more than a three-year mean regression, and those projections are then run hundreds of thousands of times, pounding out any abnormalities that inevitably will occur when the season happens once in real life), it may help to know that the average number of wins for the AL East's first-place team in the simulations was 98 and the second-place team averaged 91 wins.
In other words, while the Sox and Yanks' win totals averaged out to 96 and 94, respectively, the winner usually finished about seven games ahead of the second-place team, and the winner more often than not (42 percent of the time) was the Red Sox.
That's the brainy way of looking at things. Others of us would rather just squint hard and throw darts at a newspaper and see how things look. One of those things is more conducive to a last-minute predictions post.
Without further ado, here are my 2011 predictions. In the past, all the co-moderators would email hurriedly behind the scenes and post all our predictions in one post. Rather than do that this year, I invite all my co-moderators — and of course everyone else — to respond in the comments with their predictions. I'll then sum up everyone's choices into some kind of consensus YFSF prediction. Ready? Go!
Note that I've left the rest of the space blank. This is mostly so I can come back and grab the HTML for the table formatting, but if any mods want to join in by simply editing this post or emailing me their picks, we can do it that way, as well!
You'll also notice that I've helpfully filled in some of the more obvious choices for the YF moderators, all in the spirit of cooperation, of course.
- Paul: Adrian Gonzalez, BOS
- YF: Alex Rodriguez, NYY
- SF: Gonzalez
- John: Rodriguez
- Nick: Rodriguez
- Paul: Jon Lester, BOS
- YF: Felix Hernandez, SEA
- SF: Hernandez
- John: Hernandez
- Nick: CC Sabathia, NYY
- Paul: Jeremy Hellickson, TBR
- YF: Jesus Montero, NYY
- SF: Hellickson
- John: Carrasco
- Nick: Dennis Quaid
- Paul: Terry Francona, BOS
- YF: Joe Girardi, NYY
- SF: Manny Acta, CLE
- John: Ozzie Guillen, CHW
- Nick: Animal from the Muppets
- Paul: Albert Pujols, STL
- YF: Pujols
- SF: Pujols
- John: Hanley Ramirez, FLA
- Nick: Troy Tulowitzki, COL
- Paul: Josh Johnson, FLA
- YF: Roy Halladay, PHI
- SF: Halladay
- John: Halladay
- Nick: Halladay
Mike "Not the Pitcher" Stanton, FLAFreddie Freeman, ATL
- YF: Bryce Harper, WAS
- SF: Freeman
- John: Freeman
- Nick: Mike Minor, ATL
- Paul: Fredi Gonzalez, ATL
- YF: Don Mattingly, LAD
- SF: Gonzalez
- John: Ron Roenicke, MIL
- Nick: The fans
30 replies on “The Most Wonderful Time of the Year (YFSF Predictions)”
well hopefully buck was right about one thing…his o’s will enjoy beating up on the best team theo could buy with henry’s millions, jeter will lead the majors in walks on inside pitches, and the yanks will sneak into first place and win the whole thing… ;)
as usual, nice job, except your prediction of the al east winner gets a robust boo ;)
I will try to get you my picks by Wednesday, Paul. Thanks for taking the lead!
(or, I could just say “ditto” to all yours!)
Well, I’m on board.:) Very nice work, Paul.
ALCS: Boston over Texas
NLCS: Braves over Philly
WS: Boston over Braves
Any picks, DC? We need you to offset the faithless YF comoderators. ;-)
Sox 162-0, win AL East
Sox sweep Twins
Sox Sweep Yankees
Sox Sweep Cards
Sox go 173-0. Greatest team ever.
Also, today is the last day of Spring Training, 2011.
I cannot wait for this weekend.
I think it’s safe to say that no matter whom the Twins play, they will be swept.
I think it’s safe to say that no matter whom the Twins play, they will be swept.
Agreed. They’re such playoff pussies. I can’t stand Gardenhire and his tendency to simply lay down in big spots. Or anytime he plays in NY, big game or not.
Is your email the same?
It’s at gmail now, but the same prefix.
Paul, you have an email, pal.
ALCS: Sox over Yanks in 7 games
NLCS: Cardinals over Rockies in 5 games
WS: Sox over Cardinals in 5 games
AL MVP: Adrian Gonzalez
AL CY: Clay Buchholz
AL MOY: Jim Lleyland
NL MVP: Albert Pujols (seriously, who else?)
NL CY: Yovani Gallardo
NL MOY: Ron Roenicke
Holy crap. I forgot all about predictaroo! I’ll get it to you soon, Paul. In the mean time, pencil in the Cleveland Spiders or the Montreal Expos for me.
I love the confidence of the SF’s…to a person picking the Sox to win it all.
No Yank fan selections yet. Surely you’re not punting this soon? ;-)
krueg, I have some inside dope that at least one of our YF contributors is as much of a homer as we SFs are. I think this is something of a tradition, picking one’s own team. My first YFSF hometown prediction ever was in 2004, and it served me well!
I’ve updated to include YF and SF picks, and I have to say it’s hard to top the homerism that is picking Joe Girardi and Don Mattingly for Manager of the Year awards…
It’s all good SF…I was just sayin’.
Hey old friends…
First things first, I would like to call Paul out on this:
“That’s the brainy way of looking at things. Others of us would rather just squint hard and throw darts at a newspaper…”
Nice try at the common man, but you’re a stat dork 100% and we love you for it.
Second, Red Sox will take the division by 5 games or more.
Third, I don’t care if Girl with the Dragon Tattoo is comercial crap, read it on the plane back from China and loved it.
Lastly, PLAY BALL!
They really shouldn’t even play the season…just hand the Sox the trophy now, save us all a lot of time. I mean, how can anyone beat the greatest team of all time???? HOW????
“…Any picks, DC? We need you to offset the faithless YF comoderators. ;-) …”
well paul, you know i don’t do predictions or projections, probably because i stink at it, but here goes…either the yankees or sox will win the division with the winner going on to take the world series…no need to pick the other divisions and nl wildcard, because they will be rendered irrelevant…i’m lazy i know, but that’s the way it goes…if i have to pick between the yanks and sox, i gotta go with the sox…ugh, boy i hated saying that, but i’m picking them for a different #1 reason than probably a lot of other folks…i think having the guys back from injuries will make more of a difference from last year than “the replacement players” crawford and agon [as in replacement for the loss of belte and martinez]…the sox [potential] achilles heel will be pitching [after lester and maybe bucch], including the closer [even though they have 3 of them counting bard], which won’t be helped by the switch in catchers, or it could wind up being a strength if guys live up to their reputations…no reason to believe that isn’t possible…the yankees issues no surprise will be age and the impact that has on playing time [referring to rest, not injury], comebacks by jeter and arod, catching, and the back end of the rotation [and that includes aj, even though i think i heard he is considered the #2]…other than that, no problem ;) …even with all that, i still think we have the best 2 teams in baseball…even with their starting pitching potential, i’m not taking the phillies seriously [as a threat to either the yanks or sox] until they give me a reason…
“…I mean, how can anyone beat the greatest team of all time???? HOW????…”
let’s ask buck krueg…he says he enjoys whipping up on them…
this can’t be good…
with any luck, his little buddy joe buck will pick the sox to win it all… ;)
We now have John and Nick’s picks. If I didn’t know better, I’d suspect John of trying to jinx the Sox.
I’m really becoming uncomfortable with the amazing unanimity with which the Sox have become the World Series favorites. It’s a scary spot to be in.
Not at all. If I really wanted to jinx them I would have picked A-Gonz for MVP and Lester for the Cy. I’ve been on record for a long while now as a real big fan of what Theo has done this off-season.
I will say this…I truly believe in my heart that John Lackey will crap the bed this season. So it’s not all roses in Boston. He becomes 2011’s, 2010 AJ Burnett. Just my gut feeling, separate from hatred, just my thoughts. Otherwise it’s clear sailing for the Sox, well that and Bard will be the closer come the postseason.
‘m really becoming uncomfortable with the amazing unanimity with which the Sox have become the World Series favorites. It’s a scary spot to be in.
I’m surprised you say this because the Sox have been favorites for the last few years…pretty much every year. Maybe not unanimously, but then again they’ve never had the greatest team ever built until now.
I think I meant that guy Beach, or whatever it is instead of Minor for ROY. Ok, back to work!
I will never understand why the hell they start the season so early…snow tomorrow in the Bronx??? Rain and 40 degrees for the next week???
So fucking stupid…
Hey Paul we agree on Braves and also Phils not in. I got the Rockies in the NL west and Oakland in the AL WEst.
Twins over Braves in WS