Who’s Number 2?

I take Cano hands down. Biased yes but he put together a hell of a season especially given he was hitting in the bottom of the lineup.

I’m still predicting Pedroia to follow Marcus Giles’ career path, as I am sure many Sox fans are still predicting Cano to follow Carlos Baerga’s career path.

Here’s a guy who has beat Pedroia’s 2008 and yet won’t even make the top 10 in the voting
…this is just wrong.
He has beaten Pedroia’s 2008 in: slugging% and HRs. That is it. Pedroia was not a typical MVP because he does not put up big power #s, but that doesn’t mean he was not deserving.

Oh well, looks like civilized discussion has gone out the window.
Well, you can’t argue the more runs and then discount the more RBIs “because where they hit in the order”…
Yes I can actually, particularly with the Yankees lineup, top to bottom. And Cano does not exactly blow Pedroia away in the RBI column, nor does Pedroia blow Cano away in the runs column. Pedroia scored about 13% of the Sox’s runs while Cano scored about 11% of the Yankees. Pretty close.
Any argument that tried to say that either guy is not a good (or even great) player is pretty laughable. I was just comparing their respective pros and cons. Pedroia gets on base more and has a better all-around game. Cano hits for more power and (this year) a better average.

I was referring to you calling his MVP undeserved and bringing up racism, not Lar who had a valid point about what I was saying.
And yeah, Pedroia is better at home, as are the Red Sox in general. The Yankees are a better team at home too. That is how baseball works. I don’t see why you should punish a player for playing better at home. Cano’s consistency is admirable. Although this year I believe he did benefit somewhat from NYS, as if you take a look at his home/road splits from this season, his average jumps .30 and his OPS from .842 to .911…

I didn’t call the MVP undeserved. That’s debatable and the point of this thread.
…Rob, you said “Nothing shows how much that MVP was undeserved…”
And the point of this thread was whether you’d rather have Cano or Pedroia. Obviously you’d rather have Cano and that’s fine, I can understand.
Maybe there is some racism involved with the old fogeys that vote for MVP, but do not project that here or onto me personally.
Yeah, he is insanely better at home, but can every player on the Sox benefit from home field advantage like that? No. So he has mastered hitting there and should get full credit for it. Cano’s numbers on the road this year are basically his career average, and his season was made great by NYS. Should we give him less credit for his year because of that? I say no.

whoops, let’s close those italics. Anyway, I’m certainly not saying the MVP voting process is perfect. I think it overly favors teams that make the playoffs, and puts a bit too much emphasis on power #s and ignores pitchers due to the Cy Young.
Still, it’s an interesting debate. There have been a lot of people over the years who’ve been robbed of it.

No no. I’m saying seasons *should* be judged in their historical context.
I think Pedroia was the MVP last year. You can disagree with me, that’s understandable. I can also understand someone calling it one of the weaker MVP years. Again that wasn’t really the point of this thread if you read it.
I don’t think that just because there have been many greater MVP seasons invalidates a specific MVP award. There are other things that can depending on how deep do you want to go — there were many more undeserving winners, many winners who probably cheated. Last year, I think Pedroia deserved it. If you were doing “All time greatest seasons”, Pedroia’s 2008 would not be near the top, nor would Cano’s 2009. In 2008 however, Pedroia had the best or one of the best years in the AL and got the award.

Hopefully this fixes it.

There’s really no need for that dave. I think we were having a pretty good discussion.
Anyway, Youklis’ ’08 was very good, but if I recall (and I wasn’t following the end of the year so well because I was in Japan) he had a few parts of the season where his production dropped off pretty heavily, while Pedroia was on fire almost the whole year. Mauer was probably his closest competition.

Cano won’t get many MVP votes this year, and I really don’t see how he should. Good year, yes. MVP year, not even close. I mean, Cano’s not even the MVP of his own team–of those offensive categories I listed, the only one he leads the team in is doubles.
And I don’t see how “historically great” matters for MVP voting, either. Not every year gets a historically great performance. Like Ethan says, what happens then? Do you just not award the MVP at all?
The nature of an annual award requires that you only consider performances within the context of that year. You pick the best person that year, and let the historical context shake itself out later. In 2008, there just wasn’t a standout performance. You could argue for Youklis or Bradley or Mauer or Pedroia, and you’d essentially be right every time.
As for the road/home splits, I don’t remember any discussion of it, but then I wasn’t paying attention. But I think it’s pretty clear that Pedroia won the award for his counting stats, where splits are harder to see disparities.

I think when your OPS is over 1.000 that all kind of goes out the window =P.
Anyway, I think Rob’s somewhat strange point about historically great season arose from my saying that Cano would not get any first place votes because Mauer is having an historically amazing season. I don’t think it’s all that hard to understand, but I was just saying that Cano won’t get votes because Mauer has had a better year, irregardless of whether or not Cano’s numbers are similar to Pedroia’s in ’08. I wasn’t saying that Mauer should win because of how historically great it has been (and it has been), but just because he had the best season — and was pretty unquestionably the most valuable player on his team — in the AL.

That anyone has to explain or argue to anyone else here that MVP votes in year X have zero/nothing/not one iota to do with MVP votes in year X-1 is crazy. It makes an entire discussion because to argue otherwise (that guy didn’t deserve the mvp last year because this guy put up similar numbers to him this year and won’t get a single vote) is to reflect either no knowledge of the game and what the mvp award is for OR a penchant for baiting others with hyperbolic assertions that one knows hold no water. Give me a break.
When a guy wins player-of-the-week for outperforming everyone in that particular week, does it have anything whatsoever to do with who wins it the following week? And does who wins it the following week reflect in any way, shape, or form on his having won it this week? Frankly a waste of time to even entertain that position and I wish I could get the last 5 minutes of my life back.
As for the debate about Pedroia and Cano and which is better, now that’s interesting, and I do think the home-away splits are important, not just because they are so disparate for Pedroia but because the range that they cover goes between what would be a rather pedestrian player to what would be a perennial all-star. Cano’s inconsistency seems much less over the course of the season but significant within any particular game (though not having watched Pedroia vs. anyone but the Yanks, I have no idea whether he can also be accused – as can Cano – of seemingly losing concentration on one play and then making a brilliant play 2 minutes later).

I have no idea whether he can also be accused – as can Cano – of seemingly losing concentration on one play and then making a brilliant play 2 minutes later).
Not really IH, one thing he always gives is effort. I don’t watch Cano a lot, but can only gather that he’s a really good player from the stats he keeps putting up. Home/Road splits certainly are relevant to some extent, but I just can’t make myself take much credit away from a player if they are better at home. Saying Pedroia becomes a pedestrian player on the road though just isn’t true. He isn’t as great as at home, but he’s hardly “Glove only”.
I was trying to be nice about explaining things, but you hit the MVP thing on the head.

Like I said Ethan, I don’t think you should have to even make the argument since the opposing view goes something like:
Frank won salesman of the month in August for selling 125 widgets. But Tom didn’t get a single vote for selling 123 in September so there clearly must be some bias against Tom. Oh yeah, the guy who won in September sold 175 widgets and was one of 10 guys to sell more than 123 widgets that month. But that’s somehow irrelevant.

And just to be clear — historically significant is not the same as historically great.

As far as Jeter for MVP goes, he had the poor fortune to have many of his best years during an era where the media and fans in general were hypnotized by the huge power numbers being put up. Look back at most of the MVPs during Jeter’s career, and it’s been all big power hitters (particularly in the ’90s). This is one of the things I pointed out as one of the problems with the MVP voting.

Now I look like a crazy person mumbling to himself -_-. Oh well, it’s not the first time.

To get back to the OP…I think:
Will Pedroia’s MVP season be one baseball fans talk about decades from now?
Unlikely (haven’t heard much talk about Nellie Fox’s MVP lately).
Does that mean he didn’t deserve it?
Well, Joe Dimaggio only slugged .671 in his ’39 MVP season, against .704 for Jimmie Foxx in ’38. What say fellow Yankee fans, shall we dump on Joltin’ Joe?
It’s a nonsense argument. There may have been some player last season whose contribution to his team outweighed Pedroia’s to the Red Sox, but I’d want to see some serious proof. It was a most well-deserved award.
As for Pedroia vs Cano, well I’d take Robbie because I think he has more upside (You have to go with one of them for the next 10 years, which do you choose?) but I’d happily have either one of them on my team.

Where did you see the Yankee ALDS option being announced? I don’t see it on the Yankee site or espn. They have/had until one hour after the completion of Tuesday’s one-game playoff to choose.

Not again guys!
I take back what I said; on mlb.com they have both scenarios posted, and I only saw the first one.

NOTES: Pedroia walked more and struck out less in 2009 than 2008. He batted .296 and had a .371 OBP, just .005 off his 2008 pace. The notion that this represents some giant drop-off from last year is not just silly, it’s unsupported by any data whatsoever in the front-page post. Indeed, YF has not provided any metrics at all for the inflammatory “point” that Pedroia was not among the top 10 at 2nd base this year, suggesting that this is typical Yankee fan-hating on Dustin.
For example, Pedroia ranked this year 5th among second basemen in OBP in the majors, 2nd in the A.L. How’s that fit YF’s speculative thesis?

“But I don’t hear any YFs touting Zobrist for MVP.”
I dont know any YFs touting Cano for MVP either. Thats the point.

Well, I’m relatively reserved for superlatives, so you can rescale it as you like. My scale is basically:
Pujols/ARod/Bonds insane super whatever. (Not counting roids, etc..)
Very Good – Next Tier, Jeter, Teixiera, Ortiz in his good years, etc.
Good – All-Stars
..
So ya, I didn’t mean that to say that Jeter _only_ got in because he has tons of counting stats, but if he ended his career at say, 35, I’m not quite sure he would be in the Hall. Thus, he’s very good.

Lar, if Jeter ended his career today, he’d get in the Hall of Fame. Heck, if he ended his year after last year, he’d get in.
Heh, one could say he’s just ‘padding his stats’ now.

I dunno — some of us do actually expect more from this site than just “bringing up” topics. “Bringing up” is easy, actual research takes work.
For example, one could “bring up” the topic that “some say” that Joe Girardi is more lucky to have a great roster than a good manager. But without doing more than raising the topic, it’s just throwing out red meat to generate traffic, rather than a substantive topic.
I prefer how others such as Paul usually flesh out front page posts with hard stats that people can then debate, rather than just stirring the pot.

Hudson
there is a huge difference between receiving votes for MVP than touting someone for MVP. Nobody here has said he should win MVP. Being voted in the top 10 is a different story and a reasonable position to take for Cano, Zobrist, and Pedroia. Im pretty sure that Zobrist didnt come up here largely due to the fact that this is a YFSF website and nobody was talking about their full slate of people they would vote for.

Basically a large amount of the difference in value from fangraphs between the two players amounts to defense. However, looking at other metrics from other sites its not necessarily clear that Pedroia is THAT much more valuable in the field. Last year for example, fangraphs had a similar spread in value added attributed to defense while if you look at the PMR ratings from Dave Pinto, the players were largely even. So for some reason, fangraphs’ system could be either undervaluing Cano or overvaluing Pedroias defense. The final numbers for defense arent available on baeball-reference yet but last year showed a close parity between the two players defensively. From what Ive looked at, fangraphs seems to be the outlier.
I think that if you go looking for stats and data to compare these two players, you will find some information to fit the argument you wish to make. Personally, watching almost every yankee game this year, I find it very hard to believe that Cano had a -6 run value overall in the field. These metrics are fraught with problems as is illustrated by the inconsistency in rankings they yield when compared with each other. By most metrics, Cano had a better season at the dish than Pedroia. Yet it doesnt surprise me though that Paul was able to find one that shows Pedroia was better/more valuable. However, he seems to be picking from the two most favorable situations for pedroia by using the Hardball times evaluation for offense and the fangraphs one for defense.

What Paul is saying is that except for two statistics, Cano beat Pedroia soundly this year. Which is fine, as this year can be described as Cano’s best year, while it’s only Pedroia’s second-best.

when does pedroia’s massive home advantage come into the discussion?
I’m not sure of all the numbers, but at some point, a lefty at YS2, and a righty at Fenway basically cancel each other, don’t they?

twice the advantage how? I’m not sure what metric you are using or which stat you’re saying is twice as much?
He hit less homeruns, so you can’t be talking about the wall, his doubles maybe? Are you talking about doubles?

I’d also like to have a home-run distribution chart for Robinson Cano, so we can see how much of an advantage YS had for him (and Johnny Damon) this year in terms of power.
Id be curious to compare the two stadiums with re: to just Cano at YS, and Ped at Fenway. Is one more forgiving than the other for either of those two?
I know Pedroia has exactly one opposite field HR in his career, which happened at YS this year, so while I do think Ped gets a boost from Fenway, I also think Cano gets a boost from YS, and neither should be held against them when in comparison.

This made me chuckle:
From Sam:
Yet it doesnt surprise me though that Paul was able to find one that shows Pedroia was better/more valuable.
From Andrew:
What Paul is saying is that except for two statistics, Cano beat Pedroia soundly this year.
I collected all the stats I could think of at the time that measured both offense and defense. I tend to like WAR better because, for one, it’s easier to understand, and for another, people have expressed fewer reservations about the data it produces (as opposed to WARP). The one overall stat I couldn’t get for 2009 is Win Shares, which is behind the Bill James paywall. I neglected to check PMR, so thanks for the reminder on that one, Sam. And as you are quick to mention, all defensive stats come with numerous caveats and disclaimers, particularly when we’re discussing fewer than three years of data. I don’t ever watch Cano in the field, so I honestly have no idea whether he’s any good, though I know he has a reputation for being erratic out there.
But I think the broader point to take away from all that is that two respected overall measurements — WAR and WARP — differed on who had the better 2009, and even on offense, where a quick look at OPS and OPS+ would indicate that Cano had the much better season, there are a number of metrics that indicate the question is much closer.
I don’t have a problem with saying Cano had the better season. Before I did the research, I would not have even raised the question because I have long assumed that to be the case, so I was surprised to see these numbers. I did the research because YF’s statement that Pedroia was arguably not in the top 10 and likely not in the top five struck me as over the top, and I wanted to get a better idea of where the two second basemen would rank. If you want to say that Cano’s 2009 is around 3/4 and Pedroia’s 2009 is around 4/5, that doesn’t bother me one bit.

I retract that statement. He only played in the two hole once this year, which he did fine.

Brad
According to hittracker, Cano only had 1 HR which was a true “yankee stadium HR” meaning it was a HR there and only there.

Hasn’t Fenway become more of a pitcher’s park in recent years? I’m not saying that certain players on the Sox do not benefit from the park, but if it’s not especially easy to create runs there then what those players do hitting-wise has a lot of value. In the case of Colorado a few years ago, you could argue that gaudy offensive stat lines had less value because runs came in abundance. Quantify affected quality. But if Fenway is a relatively neutral park, then Pedrioa is bringing a lot of value to his game by hitting so well there.

Hasn’t Fenway become more of a pitcher’s park in recent years?
This is more anecdotal than stats based, but I wouldn’t really say so. It depends on the pitcher. Most Red Sox starters are better at home than on the road, but there are a lot of pitchers who regularly get shelled there.
I think it’s more a matter of learning to pitch to the park. There’s certainly things that a pitcher can take advantage of, but there’s also many things that can hurt pitchers (lack of foul territory, the monster obviously, short right field corner).
Similarly, some batters just learn to hit there — hence my point that Pedroia shouldn’t be punished because he hits so well at home. Not everyone can do that, on the Sox or any team.

“Similarly, some batters just learn to hit there — hence my point that Pedroia shouldn’t be punished because he hits so well at home. Not everyone can do that, on the Sox or any team.”
I’m not going to deny the idea that players learn to hit at their ballpark (to the point where it might actually hurt their performances away from that ballpark) but the last sentence is, of course, key. A player’s offensive value is all about context. A run created in Petco is much more valuable than a run created in Texas. So if Boston is a big-time hitters park, then I think you’d have to “punish” or, at least, reassess Pedroia’s overall value accordingly.

Thanks, Andrew. The problem with OPS+ it seems is that it weighs slugging and OBP equally, when OBP is more important for run creation. Am I right about that?

You are correct, Nick, about OPS+ not properly weighting its components. wOBA I don’t believe adjusts for park. The Batting Runs Above Average component of WAR, however, adjusts wOBA for home park.
If you want a good stat that does the job of OPS+ but accurately weights the components of OPS, GPA at The Hardball Times is fun. It’s [1.8(OBP)+SLG]/4. The dividing by four just scales it similarly (probably a little lower) to batting average, which makes it a little more user friendly.
THT then weights it to home park. They also have a formula to convert GPA to runs.
For the record, MLB 2B ranked by GPA:
1. Zobrist, .321
2. Utley, .300
3. Cano, .288
4. Uggla, .280
…
10. Pedroia, .268
A lot of separation between the top four (21 points, 12 points, 8 points), then only 12 points between Uggla, Pedroia and the five second basemen separating them.

Doubles are in sheer abundance at Fenway and for Pedroia especially. He has hit 62% of his career doubles there.

Let me comment briefly here. Again, the post was not meant to knock Pedroia. He was phenomenal last year, always with the big hit, an impossible out, I have no problem with his victory. I just place him in the Versalles/Rizzutto camp of forgettable winners. Suggesting that Pedroia might not be a top 10 at his position was hyperbolic, I admit (I was looking at the THT stat Paul mentions), though I don’t think he had quite the year as Cano, and probably is somewhere around 5-6, which ain’t bad. The defensive metrics are all over the place. I will admit that I should have thrown a few more stats out there but I was pressed for time and just figured I’d get the ball rolling, and that the peanut gallery here would chime in, which is precisely what happened. Again, the post was not intentionally meant to breed a firewar, but to generate some interesting discussion, and I think it did, even in some of the comments that were erased.

…other than it was not hyperbolic pro-sox…anybody who doesn’t see that about this site isn’t really paying attention…
Man DC, you make this same sort of comment about once a month. Give it a rest, huh?

look, i know it’s not well received when i make assertions along those lines ath, but it’s more of an observation than it is a complaint…i’ll try to be less observant…
;)

that was the point…because it wasn’t “pro”, or neutral, it was perceived as “negative” about a sox player…yf got the desired reaction…to stimulate conversation spiced with a bit of controversy…i praised him for taking that risk…he also said this in his last comment at 10:57pm:
“Again, the post was not meant to knock Pedroia. He was phenomenal last year, always with the big hit, an impossible out, I have no problem with his victory. I just place him in the Versalles/Rizzutto camp of forgettable winners.”
i guess the last sentence is the one that’s considered objectionable, but his point is well taken, and if the worst thing anyone ever says about ped is to compare him to rizutto, that ain’t bad…there’s a lot of great players who never won mvp’s…pedroia earned and deserved his…nobody was arguing that once rob left the room…if you’ll scour your archives, you will even find flattering comments from me last year suggesting that he was the most deserving candidate…and no, i can’t resist the urge…i don’t think i’m out of line, and challenging conventional wisdom is part of what makes this site interesting…but, if you guys think i am [out of line that is], tell me not to come back…that would be a bummer, since i enjoy the banter as much as the more cerebral offerings…

i’d rather not take your bait sf, but i can’t resist…yf very clearly stated his intent in his 10:57pm comment…he realized he took a shortcut by not researching his “hyperbolic” proclamation about ped’s rank among second basemen, and hoped others would flesh out the truth…i know some of you were delighted to prove him wrong, but his other comments suggest he didn’t intend to be negative about pedroia…rather it was just his attempt to put things into perspective…at least that’s how i interpreted it, but i suppose we should let him speak for himself about his intent if his earlier comments are not clear enough…my “framing an issue”, is not the issue…frankly, it’s the continued distortions of comments and misinterpretations of intent by certain sf’s, including mods, that is getting “tiresome”…the masthead says yfsf is “always opinionated”…you have your opinion and i have mine…move on

Let me just support DC here. I think he’s interpreted my points correctly and while I’m not entirely sure I agree with his overall criticism of the site I do believe he’s expressed those views in a reasonable way, and may respond however he so chooses.
sf, i was being hyperbolic but it wasn’t about “denigrating” pedroia’s season. that’s wrong. i don’t believe it’s denigrating HIS season to suggest other may have performed better this year. i was trying to demonstrate how broad the field was. but this is semantics. i think folks here are extra twitchey because of a certain commenter, but let’s not take it out on dc.

but this is semantics
Yeah, it is, and you are responsible for the words you post. You were lazy and hyperbolic in how you assessed Pedroia’s season, you said this yourself. Fine, it wasn’t meant to denigrate. But the idea that the reactions on this thread were just typical SF reflexiveness because your thread wasn’t pro-Sox, well that is utter horsesh*t and it is what dc is charging many commenters with.

Fair enough, YF. Again, I appropriated the tone of your responses – you mentioned hyperbole in your own comment, you mentioned you didn’t have time to get numbers in and thus misjudged Pedroia’s season. I don’t think it is fair or right that dc finds it appropriate to cite this discussion, based on a top post which has already been clarified as lacking deep backup by the author itself, as an example of how an insufficiently pro-Sox post generates backlash, if that is even an acceptable criticism of the site in the first place.
Time to move on, I guess.